Assuming a guy usually wins at a rate of about 55% or so over 5 or 6 years of betting in one sport, on his regular bets, what is the recommended percentage of bankroll (BR) he should place on any of his regular bets?
And is that the same as an "optimal" percentage of BR to risk on any regular bet? (regular bet, nothing special)
I've read numbers that vary from 1/2 % of BR all the way up to 7 % of BR on everyday, nothing special, regular plays.
What is the prevailing wisdom for risk on any normal/average bet?
"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
Assuming a guy usually wins at a rate of about 55% or so over 5 or 6 years of betting in one sport, on his regular bets, what is the recommended percentage of bankroll (BR) he should place on any of his regular bets?
And is that the same as an "optimal" percentage of BR to risk on any regular bet? (regular bet, nothing special)
I've read numbers that vary from 1/2 % of BR all the way up to 7 % of BR on everyday, nothing special, regular plays.
What is the prevailing wisdom for risk on any normal/average bet?
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: You can't bet 7% of your bankroll on every play. A few losing plays in a row and you lose half.....2-3% max for a standard play...for example, if you are a $100 player, it is reasonable that your bankroll is $5000. you should NOT be betting $100 per play however, if your BR is $800.00 furthermore, if your BR is $20,000...you should not be betting $1500 per play, its too much. that should be closer to $300-400 per play.
Sounds right.
I always heard 2% should be standard for a regular play with only small increase for a play of the day type of bet.
But here's a thing, what if the guy is hitting a much higher percentage? That reduces the risk of ruin and he can safely increase to 3% or even 4% or 5% of bankroll, no?
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: You can't bet 7% of your bankroll on every play. A few losing plays in a row and you lose half.....2-3% max for a standard play...for example, if you are a $100 player, it is reasonable that your bankroll is $5000. you should NOT be betting $100 per play however, if your BR is $800.00 furthermore, if your BR is $20,000...you should not be betting $1500 per play, its too much. that should be closer to $300-400 per play.
Sounds right.
I always heard 2% should be standard for a regular play with only small increase for a play of the day type of bet.
But here's a thing, what if the guy is hitting a much higher percentage? That reduces the risk of ruin and he can safely increase to 3% or even 4% or 5% of bankroll, no?
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: You can't bet 7% of your bankroll on every play. A few losing plays in a row and you lose half.....2-3% max for a standard play...for example, if you are a $100 player, it is reasonable that your bankroll is $5000. you should NOT be betting $100 per play however, if your BR is $800.00 furthermore, if your BR is $20,000...you should not be betting $1500 per play, its too much. that should be closer to $300-400 per play.
Agree with that 2% is probably the optimal for good mm if winning at 55% clip routinely.
But I would definitely raise that percentage if my average plays are winning at a higher clip.
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: You can't bet 7% of your bankroll on every play. A few losing plays in a row and you lose half.....2-3% max for a standard play...for example, if you are a $100 player, it is reasonable that your bankroll is $5000. you should NOT be betting $100 per play however, if your BR is $800.00 furthermore, if your BR is $20,000...you should not be betting $1500 per play, its too much. that should be closer to $300-400 per play.
Agree with that 2% is probably the optimal for good mm if winning at 55% clip routinely.
But I would definitely raise that percentage if my average plays are winning at a higher clip.
The Kelly Criterion answers the question. If your bet at -110 has a 55% chance of winning (and you have no other bets at the same time), the correct amount to wager is 55% - (1.1 x 45%) = 5.5%. The problem is you can't KNOW what the chance of winning is in football. In blackjack, you can.
The Kelly Criterion answers the question. If your bet at -110 has a 55% chance of winning (and you have no other bets at the same time), the correct amount to wager is 55% - (1.1 x 45%) = 5.5%. The problem is you can't KNOW what the chance of winning is in football. In blackjack, you can.
The Kelly Criterion answers the question. If your bet at -110 has a 55% chance of winning (and you have no other bets at the same time), the correct amount to wager is 55% - (1.1 x 45%) = 5.5%. The problem is you can't KNOW what the chance of winning is in football. In blackjack, you can.
Never thought of using the Kelly that way. That would seem to be optimal if only one play on the day. Curious about this. So what then if our 55% guy has maybe 20 regular type bets he wants to make before the weekend games?
20 @ 5.5% of BR means 110% of BR?!
"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
The Kelly Criterion answers the question. If your bet at -110 has a 55% chance of winning (and you have no other bets at the same time), the correct amount to wager is 55% - (1.1 x 45%) = 5.5%. The problem is you can't KNOW what the chance of winning is in football. In blackjack, you can.
Never thought of using the Kelly that way. That would seem to be optimal if only one play on the day. Curious about this. So what then if our 55% guy has maybe 20 regular type bets he wants to make before the weekend games?
BTW guys, the above is not a "gotchya" question. It's safe to respond.
I honestly don't know the answer so I'm asking around for serious opinions. What's the conventional wisdom say about wagering a percentage of one's BR if has multiple plays to bet all at once and he typically wins at a higher rate than loses?
"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
BTW guys, the above is not a "gotchya" question. It's safe to respond.
I honestly don't know the answer so I'm asking around for serious opinions. What's the conventional wisdom say about wagering a percentage of one's BR if has multiple plays to bet all at once and he typically wins at a higher rate than loses?
BTW guys, the above is not a "gotchya" question. It's safe to respond. I honestly don't know the answer so I'm asking around for serious opinions. What's the conventional wisdom say about wagering a percentage of one's BR if has multiple plays to bet all at once and he typically wins at a higher rate than loses?
I have to say 2% of total br (all sources combined) if you're a consistent 55% guy but more % if you win at a higher rate
Personally i think if anyone betting down around 1% of total bankroll or less (from all book sources combined) on any play then he's just not a skilled player.
BTW guys, the above is not a "gotchya" question. It's safe to respond. I honestly don't know the answer so I'm asking around for serious opinions. What's the conventional wisdom say about wagering a percentage of one's BR if has multiple plays to bet all at once and he typically wins at a higher rate than loses?
I have to say 2% of total br (all sources combined) if you're a consistent 55% guy but more % if you win at a higher rate
Personally i think if anyone betting down around 1% of total bankroll or less (from all book sources combined) on any play then he's just not a skilled player.
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3: 2-3% @wolfeman3 Does your recommendation hold still at 2-3% for each bet if the 55% guy has maybe 20 or more bets he wants to play before the weekend?
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3: 2-3% @wolfeman3 Does your recommendation hold still at 2-3% for each bet if the 55% guy has maybe 20 or more bets he wants to play before the weekend?
If you raise your % while you are winning when your losses come (remember over the long haul it’s a 50/50 game) then you are basically doubling down on your losses.
So you hit 5 in a row at 2% and you are up 10%. Then you up your % to 4% and you miss 3 games and you lose 12%. Now you are 5-3 and you’ve lost 2%.
If you raise your % while you are winning when your losses come (remember over the long haul it’s a 50/50 game) then you are basically doubling down on your losses.
So you hit 5 in a row at 2% and you are up 10%. Then you up your % to 4% and you miss 3 games and you lose 12%. Now you are 5-3 and you’ve lost 2%.
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