...... so my Week 14 thread turned into both Week 14 & 15. I'm finally creating a new thread for the remaining FCS playoffs, FBS bowl games, etc. Might even have a D3 championship game play before Friday night if available. Sitting at +39.6 units for the college football season; it's been going well. Just kind of on cruise control to finish the season. Like usual, it went way too fast, but looking forward to the playoff matchups that are coming up.
Just added for FCS semifinals:
Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK)
Previously posted in the "Week 14" thread for bowl games....
Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) -- very small middle opportunity as well.
I'm in great shape with FBS championship game futures; as mentioned in the last thread, I will win some $ no matter who wins the championship.
For FCS championship futures, I at setup to win 1u if South Dakota State wins it all. I win a small amount (0.14u) if NDSU wins. I lose some (-0.9u) if Montana wins it all. And if the Field wins it all, I lose 2.7u, but with Albany being the only remaining team I don't have a ticket on, I am able to hedge some. Plus I think they cover, but hopefully lose in the semis.
...... so my Week 14 thread turned into both Week 14 & 15. I'm finally creating a new thread for the remaining FCS playoffs, FBS bowl games, etc. Might even have a D3 championship game play before Friday night if available. Sitting at +39.6 units for the college football season; it's been going well. Just kind of on cruise control to finish the season. Like usual, it went way too fast, but looking forward to the playoff matchups that are coming up.
Just added for FCS semifinals:
Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK)
Previously posted in the "Week 14" thread for bowl games....
Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) -- very small middle opportunity as well.
I'm in great shape with FBS championship game futures; as mentioned in the last thread, I will win some $ no matter who wins the championship.
For FCS championship futures, I at setup to win 1u if South Dakota State wins it all. I win a small amount (0.14u) if NDSU wins. I lose some (-0.9u) if Montana wins it all. And if the Field wins it all, I lose 2.7u, but with Albany being the only remaining team I don't have a ticket on, I am able to hedge some. Plus I think they cover, but hopefully lose in the semis.
mjm1012 - thanks bud. Good luck to you as we finish out the season.
MudPhud3, no problem.
.....And that stupid ampersand symbol in the title was a bad choice apparently as it does not display correctly. I'll have to remember not to do that again.
mjm1012 - thanks bud. Good luck to you as we finish out the season.
MudPhud3, no problem.
.....And that stupid ampersand symbol in the title was a bad choice apparently as it does not display correctly. I'll have to remember not to do that again.
forgot to post this yesterday…. Small action play added (small action might be my M.O. throughout most of the bowl games is what I’ve kind of decided with opt outs, transfer portal, coaching changes, motivation or lack of affecting so many of these games.
forgot to post this yesterday…. Small action play added (small action might be my M.O. throughout most of the bowl games is what I’ve kind of decided with opt outs, transfer portal, coaching changes, motivation or lack of affecting so many of these games.
TD, I'd love to hear your thoughts about the current Albany +20/+20.5 line. I took a standard unit on Albany +22.5 early in the week, but I'm tempted to add a little bit more with the side and total both dropping?
I'm also curious about your thoughts about the Montana-NDST game. Your reads for FCS have been incredible all season.
TD, I'd love to hear your thoughts about the current Albany +20/+20.5 line. I took a standard unit on Albany +22.5 early in the week, but I'm tempted to add a little bit more with the side and total both dropping?
I'm also curious about your thoughts about the Montana-NDST game. Your reads for FCS have been incredible all season.
I wouldn’t read too much into the total dropping as it relates to a correlated side play if I’m understanding your rationale correctly. The major difference this week for the total is that there is no wind, just approximately 50% chance of rain and it’s hard to say from the current radar if that will even happen. Last week’s Under in Brookings was based on the teams and especially the wind. Weather unders for rain/snow can be overrated because the defense can slip and lose footing leading to big plays just as easy as the offense can have lousy footing. But at least the offense knows where they’re going based on the play call. Anyway, I’m off on a tangent here; all that said GTH I’d still play Albany plus points for a lower amount at the current lines. Not because of the correlation with the line movements, but because of their ATS margins the last few weeks and peaking at the right time. And a solid run defense from a matchup perspective.
I’ll have to circle back later on the NDSU/Montana game.
I wouldn’t read too much into the total dropping as it relates to a correlated side play if I’m understanding your rationale correctly. The major difference this week for the total is that there is no wind, just approximately 50% chance of rain and it’s hard to say from the current radar if that will even happen. Last week’s Under in Brookings was based on the teams and especially the wind. Weather unders for rain/snow can be overrated because the defense can slip and lose footing leading to big plays just as easy as the offense can have lousy footing. But at least the offense knows where they’re going based on the play call. Anyway, I’m off on a tangent here; all that said GTH I’d still play Albany plus points for a lower amount at the current lines. Not because of the correlation with the line movements, but because of their ATS margins the last few weeks and peaking at the right time. And a solid run defense from a matchup perspective.
I’ll have to circle back later on the NDSU/Montana game.
I forgot how crazy busy we are today with kids events, so I have a small window of time to post quick. My original lean last week after the quarterfinal games was to take NDSU here, but then the Coach Entz news came out. I watched his initial press conference. I’ve decided to pass on a play here. I think the news has to have some affect on the team, but I’m also not too concerned about him moving on whenever the season is over and I think the team should still be prepared and this type of change will have less affect on this team than it would on others in the same situation. Three weeks in a row of travel might be equally worrisome. Should be a great game. Good luck if you take a side.
I forgot how crazy busy we are today with kids events, so I have a small window of time to post quick. My original lean last week after the quarterfinal games was to take NDSU here, but then the Coach Entz news came out. I watched his initial press conference. I’ve decided to pass on a play here. I think the news has to have some affect on the team, but I’m also not too concerned about him moving on whenever the season is over and I think the team should still be prepared and this type of change will have less affect on this team than it would on others in the same situation. Three weeks in a row of travel might be equally worrisome. Should be a great game. Good luck if you take a side.
One side play added below for the FCS championship game. BTW, one shop at -13.5 / 52.5 and another at -14.5 / 49 so shop around depending upon what you like with some discrepancy on both side and total.
......small bowl plays are a mind fck so far for me. I'm typically playing early lines, which I tried very hard not to do with bowl games because of opt outs, transfer portal, coaching changes, motivation, etc.. Then I pass on three leans yesterday which would have all won and the couple that I do play go 0-2, got to love it. It's just small action and "on cruise control" to finish the year, but still pisses me off (perfectionist personality here more often than not). Sorry, just need to vent when that happens.
FCS semifinals:
Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD)
FCS Championship Game:
Added: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u) (FD)..... I would have put more on this side play, but I am already in a good position overall with FCS Championship Futures.
One side play added below for the FCS championship game. BTW, one shop at -13.5 / 52.5 and another at -14.5 / 49 so shop around depending upon what you like with some discrepancy on both side and total.
......small bowl plays are a mind fck so far for me. I'm typically playing early lines, which I tried very hard not to do with bowl games because of opt outs, transfer portal, coaching changes, motivation, etc.. Then I pass on three leans yesterday which would have all won and the couple that I do play go 0-2, got to love it. It's just small action and "on cruise control" to finish the year, but still pisses me off (perfectionist personality here more often than not). Sorry, just need to vent when that happens.
FCS semifinals:
Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD)
FCS Championship Game:
Added: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u) (FD)..... I would have put more on this side play, but I am already in a good position overall with FCS Championship Futures.
For FCS championship futures, I at setup to win 1u if South Dakota State wins it all. I win a small amount (0.14u) if NDSU wins. I lose some (-0.9u) if Montana wins it all.
Updated FCS futures; similar to the FBS futures I've set this up to minimize risk and I now have a free roll on South Dakota State to win it all by adding some to my current positions:
This is FYI only as it may seem contradictory to my side play listed in the last post, but I want to show how to minimize risk on Futures.
Added yesterday: Montana ML +490 (just over 0.18u to win 0.9u).
For FCS championship futures, I at setup to win 1u if South Dakota State wins it all. I win a small amount (0.14u) if NDSU wins. I lose some (-0.9u) if Montana wins it all.
Updated FCS futures; similar to the FBS futures I've set this up to minimize risk and I now have a free roll on South Dakota State to win it all by adding some to my current positions:
This is FYI only as it may seem contradictory to my side play listed in the last post, but I want to show how to minimize risk on Futures.
Added yesterday: Montana ML +490 (just over 0.18u to win 0.9u).
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