2023 Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2023 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Can Max Keep Running the Gauntlet?

The Formula 1 season heads to South America for the Sao Paulo Grand Prix — aka the Brazilian GP — for today's action.

Max Verstappen is fresh off yet another victory at the Mexican Grand Prix, padding his already impressive clinching of the F1 Drivers Championship. '

Following securing his 11th pole of the season, Mad Max is the heavy favorite once more with Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc trailing closest behind on the odds board.

Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver	Team
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	-800
Lando Norris	McLaren	+800
Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	+1,600
Sergio Perez	Red Bull	+2,800
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	+4,000
George Russell	Mercedes	+5,000
Carlos Sainz	Ferrari	+10,000
Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	+10,000
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	+10,000
Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	+25,000

Odds as of November 5, 2023

Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2023 picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win outright (-500)

After opening at -300 prior to qualifying, most would have expected Max Verstappen's odds to be much shorter after securing pole position for Sunday.

But whether it's his winless history at this track or some misplaced expectation for Verstappen to let up given his massive lead in the Drivers' Championship standings, his market remains close to where it was days ago.

The fact remains Verstappen is having arguably the most dominant Formula 1 season in the sport's history after winning 16 of this year's 19 races and breaking the sport's record for the longest race win streak.

Regardless of his history at this track, he remains the clear pick to take home first place come Sunday.

Pick: Max Verstappen to win outright (-500 at FanDuel)

Best bet: Lando Norris to podium (-112)

Lando Norris took home a lukewarm position during qualifying, taking home seventh position for Sunday's race weekend finale.

Norris is coming off a fifth-place finish at the United States Grand Prix, but prior to that, he had strung together four straight podium finishes.

Even last week's underwhelming result on paper was actually a spectacular display of his talent, climbing 13 spots from his 18th position he only had to start from due to post-qualifying violations.

Norris has managed to maintain or improve his position in 10 of his last 11 races, and if we assume surprise third position-placer Lance Stroll drops off at some point, that just leaves three racers for Norris to best - a cohort of racers he as of late has no issues leaving behind him.

In our opening odds reaction we noted Norris to podium was not a prop to bet pre-qualifying given it was priced in the -140 range, and instead recommended to wait post-qualifying for near-even money odds. Now that those odds have surfaced, now is the time to back Norris.

Pick: Lando Norris to podium (-112 at Unibet)

Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-303 to -400)

Max Verstappen won again. Max Verstappen is favored to win. Again. Any potential doubts surrounding his drive to win after clinching the Drivers' Championship are certainly squashed now that he keeps hoarding checkered flags.

But, he hasn't had the same success here as he has at several other races. While he did win in 2019, it's the only time he's claimed victory at Interlagos. He's generally been in contention, though he did finish sixth last year as George Russell his first — and only — F1 race. 

Lewis Hamilton (+700 to +1,000)

Hamilton finished just under 14 seconds behind Verstappen in Mexico to finish second on the podium. It was his best finish since the Spanish GP in June and just his third second-place finish on the year.

But now we're back at one of the most recent sites where Hamilton emerged victorious. He rattled off three consecutive wins near the end of the 2021 season, starting with Sao Paulo. He hasn't been able to dial back the clock at either Qatar or Saudi Arabia — the locations of his most recent wins — so maybe it's unlikely. Still, Hamilton is drawing the shortest odds of anyone not named Verstappen.

Lando Norris (+1,000 to +1,400)

Norris finished fifth at Mexico City, breaking a string of four straight podium finishes. His track record in Brazil is sup-optimal as well, retiring early from last year's race and finishing 10th in 2021. The only other time he appeared in the race was an eighth-place result in 2019, his first year in F1.

Maybe this will be his breakout in Sao Paulo.

Sao Paulo Grand Prix opening odds reaction

Max Verstappen to win (-300 at Caesars)

For most bettors, seeing -300 odds usually doesn't scream value... but in Max Verstappen's case, it most certainly is. Ever since the Japanese Grand Prix three races ago, Verstappen has notably opened in the -275 to -300 range whereas prior to that, he would open -350 or shorter.

The change in his opening market could be an underlying expectation for Verstappen to take his foot off the gas given he has effectively wrapped up the Drivers' Championship, but anyone who knows Verstappen and his demeanor when it comes to competing should be well aware that "Mad Max" is always all systems go.

The longening of his odds this weekend, however, may be tied to his history at this track. The Sao Paulo Grand Prix is a race Verstappen has yet to win in his career, finishing sixth last year and second the year prior. But it may exactly be his shortcomings here that inspire and motivate Verstappen to put on yet another masterclass.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.

Lando Norris to podium (-143 at Caesars)

Lando Norris has been on fire as of late, reaching the podium in four straight races prior to his fifth-place finish last week. But even his fifth-place finish was spectacular, with Norris climbing all the way from the 18th position he was given due to post-qualification penalties.

After last week's finish, Norris has now successfully held or improved his position in 10 of the last 11 races, and his form (despite his podium streak ending) has never been better in his young career.

However, paying the current juice on his podium prop is a bit rich, and barring Norris securing pole position, the odds of this prop should improve. Two races ago at the United States Grand Prix, Norris' pre-qualifying podium odds were listed at -140. And despite finishing as the runner-up in qualifying, the prop proceeded to move to +100.

Lean: Bet after qualifying.

George Russell to win (+2,000 at Caesars)

Last year's winner of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix finds himself with the fifth-best odds to win on Sunday. He and teammate Lewis Hamilton (+1.529s) both started and finished 1-2 for that race, separating themselves from Ferrari teammates Carlos Sainz and Charles LeClerc, who finished 3-4 (from the seventh and fifth position, respectively).

Russell has had a somewhat disappointing season, reaching the podium just once this year (at the Spanish Grand Prix) after completing a breakthrough 2022 season in which he reached the podium eight times.

His recent form has been good-not-great, securing 6th, 5th, 4th, and 7th place finishes in the last four races. All in all, grabbing a reigning race winner at +2,000 odds is seemingly enticing, but given his form as of late and over the course of the season, it may be best to allocate your betting attention elsewhere.

Lean: Stay away entirely.

Previous Sao Paulo Grand Prix winners

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

• Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

• Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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