2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Verstappen Looks to Bounce Back in Italy

With Max Verstappen dominating qualifying and successfully claiming pole position for Sunday, can Red Bull's finest fully regain his momentum at Sunday's Emilia Romagna GP? Read more in Shawn Wronka's expert F1 odds analysis.

May 18, 2024 • 17:25 ET • 4 min read
Max Verstappen Formula 1 Emilia Romagna GP
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Max Verstappen has secured pole position for tomorrow's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, flanked by McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. Can Verstappen convert his favorable position into his fifth win of the young season, or will McLaren play spoiler for the second race in a row?

Continue reading for free Formula One picks and predictions for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix on Sunday, May 19th.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024 odds

Driver Team DraftKings bet365
Max Verstappen Red Bull -250 -250
Lando Norris McLaren +300 +300
Oscar Piastri McLaren +1,000 +1,400
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +1,000 +900
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +4,000 +2,800
George Russell Mercedes +8,000 +10,000
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +10,000 +12,500
Sergio Perez Red Bull +15,000 +10,000
Yuki Tsunoda RB +20,000 +20,000
Daniel Ricciardo RB +30,000 +25,000
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin +50,000 +50,000
Lance Stroll Aston Martin +50,000 +100,000
Nico Hulkenberg Haas +50,000 +50,000
Pierre Gasly Alpine +70,000 +250,000
Esteban Ocon Alpine +70,000 +200,000
Kevin Magnussen Haas +80,000 +300,000
Alexander Albon Williams +80,000 +200,000
Valtteri Bottas Kick Sauber +80,000 +300,000
Guanyu Zhou Kick Sauber +80,000 +300,000
Logan Sargeant Williams +80,000 +300,000

Odds as of 5-18-2024.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-225 at Caesars)

Despite securing pole position for Sunday's race and despite being the back-to-back winner of this race, Verstappen finds himself at shorter odds following Saturday's qualification round than he was before it.
Most of that may have to do with the fact that McLaren was able to lock up the second and third positions behind him, which of course includes Lando Norris, who outright beat Verstappen in the last race.
Regardless, Verstappen is and still should be the favorite despite whatever hurdles he may face on Sunday. Again, he is the back-to-back winner and there isn't a single driver on the grid who has fared better in this race's short history.
Additionally, Verstappen's track record following a second-place showing is impeccable, having successfully won the last four races following a runner-up finish.

Best Bet: Sergio Perez to finish in the Top 6 (-200 at DraftKings)

Perez had a shaky Saturday, only managing to secure the 11th position during qualification for Sunday's race. Yet, despite his unfavorable starting position, his odds of reaching the Top 6 remain noticeably short.
The 34-year-old Mexican has finished inside the Top 5 in every race this year so far, and that includes four podiums and three second-place finishes. Even dating back to last year, Perez only had three non-retirement finishes outside the Top 6, including just one in the season before that.

His history here works in his favor, as he managed to reach the podium despite starting in seventh position last time, and he also finished sixth in 2020 from the same position he will start from on Sunday. Perez has the talent, larger body of work, and track history here to suggest this prop (despite its shorter odds compared to what we usually recommend) is underpriced.

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Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Max Verstappen 2 Lando Norris
3 Charles LeClerc 4 Carlos Sainz
5 Oscar Piastri 6 George Russell
7 Yuki Tsunoda 8 Lewis Hamilton
9 Daniel Ricciardo 10 Nico Hulkenberg
11 Sergio Perez 12 Esteban Ocon
13 Lance Stroll 14 Alex Albon
15 Pierre Gasly 16 Valtteri Bottas
17 Zhou Guanyu 18 Kevin Magnussen
19 Fernando Alonso 20 Logan Sargeant

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix pre-qualifying leans

Max Verstappen to win (-300 at Caesars)

After getting outright beaten at the Miami Grand Prix, Verstappen finds himself at his shortest odds since the opening race of the season.

But this is clearly an overreaction by the market. Sure Verstappen didn't win the race but he won the sprint race and took pole position in qualifying, so it isn't like he is completely out of form. And if we exclude his retirement in Australia, this would mark his first true loss of the season through six races.

He is also the reigning champion and back-to-back winner of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix and likely would have a three-peat to his name heading into this weekend had last year's race not been canceled due to flooding.

If you want to lay the odds straight or use his outright win to juice a parlay, these -300 odds are more than worthy of laying.

Lando Norris to win (+800 at DraftKings)

Now that Norris has shaken the entirely unfair "Lando NoWin" moniker bestowed upon him by online fans, the market has rightfully placed the young driver second in odds to win this Sunday's race.

Despite his podium frequency and consistency (now eight in his last 14), Norris often found himself fourth or fifth at best in race future odds. And sure, a race win had eluded him for a long time but Verstappen has also won seven of the last 39 races so there wasn't exactly a lot of opportunity for drivers to etch their names at the top.

And Norris has just as good of recent form as anyone heading into this weekend, pairing his win last time out with a second-place finish prior to that.

And his history here isn't bad by any means, as he managed a third-place finish in qualifying two years ago before finishing fifth in the race and finished on the podium in 2021 despite a seventh-position start.

Lean: Bet prior to qualification

Sergio Perez to podium (+100 at BetMGM)

Perez had a rough outing by his standards in Miami, finishing just fourth and a good five seconds behind Charles LeClerc's third.

But Perez has maintained consistency on the year, never once dropping out of the top five across this season's six races and managing four podium finishes - including three-second place finishes.

He also managed to finish on the podium his last time out here, and that came from a seventh position starting position on the grid. He had a rougher go of it in 2021 (seventh-place finish from second position) but in 2020 he managed a sixth-place finish from the 11th position.

For someone who has podiumed more often than not this year and has more than a good enough track history for this weekend, Perez deserves to be shorter in this market.

Lean: Bet prior to qualification.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-500 to -400)

Yes, Max Verstappen came up short in Miami, but it's one of the only setbacks he's encountered this season, and he still finished in second. He's won the Emilia Romagna GP twice in a row, retiring early from the first running of the event in 2020.

While his odds to win are a bit longer than other recent races, it hasn't brought about much value from a betting perspective. We will need to see a significant run of losses before anything approaches a good number as he's finished first in 38 of his last 50 races dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season.

Lando Norris (+650 to +800)

Lando Norris finally did it! He claimed his first career F1 checkered flag by winning in Miami on May 5, which came on the heels of a second-place result at the Chinese Grand Prix.

This recent run of success is likely informing books and how they're measuring him against Verstappen and the rest of the field. He has finished third in each of the last two editions of the Emilia Romagna GP.

Charles Leclerc (+1,200 to +1,600)

While Norris finally got the monkey off his back with his first F1 win, Charles Leclerc is looking to reclaim old glory. The 26-year-old was a star on the rise, winning three races in 2022 to bring his career total to five. Since then, he's failed to reach the winner's circle even once as Verstappen has fully taken over Formula 1.

Nevertheless, he's been very consistent this year, finishing no worse than fourth through six races, including three podiums. However, Leclerc hasn't finished better than fourth at the Emilia Romagna in three tries.

Odds as of 5-13-2024.

Previous Emilia Romagna Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Race not held due to floods N/A
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

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Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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