The NASCAR Cup Series will swerve through it's second road course of the season this Sunday as the drivers head to Sonoma Raceway.
Located in the heart of California's wine country, Sonoma is a road racing specialists' track through and through with 12 turns and an elevation range of 160 feet from its highest to lowest points.
Martin Truex Jr. has had a knack for this course with wins in three of NASCAR's last five visits here. However, he's still in search of his first win of 2024, so is he the best bet as the pre-qualifying favorite? We'll sift through the contenders and pretenders for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 in our free betting picks.
Odds to win 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | +550 | +550 | +500 |
| William Byron | +750 | +800 | +850 |
| Ty Gibbs | +750 | +850 | +900 |
| Kyle Larson | +750 | +700 | +700 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 | +825 | +750 |
| Tyler Reddick | +850 | +850 | +950 |
| Chase Elliott | +850 | +750 | +900 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +1,300 | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| Michael McDowell | +1,400 | +1,700 | +1,500 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,400 | +1,300 | +1,400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,800 |
| Ross Chastain | +2,200 | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Daniel Suarez | +2,200 | +3,000 | +2,800 |
| Austin Cindric | +2,200 | +2,500 | +2,000 |
| Will Brown | +2,800 | +4,000 | +4,000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2,800 | +3,500 | +2,500 |
| Kyle Busch | +2,800 | +2,200 | +2,500 |
| Joey Logano | +4,500 | +3,000 | +3,500 |
| Alex Bowman | +4,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Cameron Waters | +6,500 | +8,000 | +5,500 |
Odds as of 6-6-2024.
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Toyota/Save Mart 350 field
It's been 10 weeks since NASCAR visited its first and only road course so far in 2024 when William Byron won at Circuit of the Americas on March 24. The odds board unsurprisingly looks different from those seen in recent weeks with neither Kyle Larson nor Denny Hamlin favored. Instead, it's Hamlin teammate Martin Truex Jr. at the top of the betting board looing for his fourth Sonoma victory in six tries.
Larson is still Top 5 at the NASCAR betting sites we're tracking, but he's got plenty of company in that second flight with Byron, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick all at +1,000 or less.
NASCAR bettors will also notice some unfamiliar names on the board in Will Brown and Cameron Waters. They're a pair of Supercar drivers making their NASCAR debuts, and if Supercar sounds familiar, it's because Shane Van Gisbergen hailed from that series and took down the Chicago Street Race last July.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6-6-2024.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 pre-qualifying favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (+550)
Martin Truex Jr. has led the most laps in four of the last six years in Sonoma. He’s won this race four times, including three of the last five. Truex has four Top-3 finishes in that same span.
Ty Gibbs (+750)
Ty Gibbs qualified sixth but finished 18th last year. He started second and finished third at COTA and has had past success on road courses in general.
Christopher Bell (+750)
Christopher Bell was ninth last year and a runner-up at COTA, making him a favorable pick.
Chase Elliott (+850)
Chase Elliott is eventually going to win at Sonoma, right? Elliott has five Top-8 finishes in his last six tries, including his last three finishes being second, eighth, and fifth. He did finish 16th at COTA but I’m not concerned about that.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 sleepers
Chris Buescher (+1,400)
Chris Buescher was runner-up in 2022 and fourth last year. He finished eighth at COTA back in March.
Ross Chastain (+2,200)
Ross Chastain is a solid long shot play with a COTA win a few years ago and three consecutive Top-10 finishes at COTA.
Kyle Busch (+2,800)
Kyle Busch is a two-time Sonoma winner and has scored six Top-5 finishes in his last eight wine country starts, including last year’s runner-up finish. He was also runner-up in COTA last year and ninth this season.
Ryan Blaney (+2,800)
For these odds, it’s worth the risk on Ryan Blaney. While he was 12th at COTA this spring, Blaney has three Top-10 finishes in his last four Sonoma starts.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 fades
Kyle Larson (+750)
The Next Gen car has ruined Kyle Larson’s road course advantage. Larson was 17th at COTA and his only Top-5 finish at Sonoma was his 2021 victory with the old car. He finished 15th in 2022 and eighth last year. Despite five poles, just one resulted in a Top 5 here.
William Byron (+750)
William Byron won at COTA this past spring but has no Top-5s in five Sonoma starts with finishes of 25th, 19th, 35th, ninth, and 14th.
Tyler Reddick (+850)
As enticing as it is, Tyler Reddick has been a bust at Sonoma with finishes of 19th, 35th, and 33rd, respectively. He’s led no laps and has finished in the points for stages just twice, never in the second stage. That’s why despite being fifth in COTA, I’m fading the 23XI Racing driver.
A.J. Allmendinger (+1,300)
Interesting odds but A.J. Allmendinger is 0-for-12 in terms of Top-5 finishes at Sonoma with a best finish of sixth last year.
Denny Hamlin (+2,000)
Longer odds seem enticing here but finishes of 31st and 36th, respectively, the last two years and 0-for-17 on this track is a fade for me. Denny Hamlin finished 14th in COTA.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 prop pick: Joey Logano Top 5 finish
Joey Logano (+4,500 to win outright) has a pair of Top-4 finishes in his last three Sonoma starts. He was 11th at COTA. He’s 0-for-14 at Sonoma and Fords haven’t been great on road courses, which is why I’m leaning on a Top-5 finish rather than an outright victory.
Pick: Joey Logano Top 5 finish (+550 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Sonoma track analysis
They’re back to the 1.99-mile layout again this year but with a twist. Sonoma Raceway was repaved between last year and this one which means a completely different track to race on. The old racing surface was aged and chewed up tires, making it a tire conservation event. Now without that worry and a smooth surface, this could become a sprint race with pit strategy involved.
Statistically, Toyota has been the top manufacturer here with three wins in the last five trips, including four of the last eight overall. However, this Next Gen car has halted their momentum.
Chevrolet is the top team on road courses with this Next Gen car while Ford has slipped to arguably even worse than Toyota. They have just two wins in the last 20 Sonoma races, too.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 trends
- Kyle Larson (2022) is the only pole winner to go on to win the race at Sonoma since 2004 (Jeff Gordon).
- Just three times in the last 12 years has the winner come from a Top 5 starting spot, with three of the last four Sonoma winners having started eighth.
- The driver to lead the most laps has won the race five straight years.
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Previous Toyota/Save Mart 350 winners
Chase Elliott is typically considered the road racing expert on the Cup Series circuit, but he's yet to win at Sonoma. Instead, it's Martin Truex Jr. who's dominated this course with three victories in the last five races here.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2022 | Daniel Suarez |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Not held (COVID-19) |
| 2019 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2018 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2017 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2016 | Tony Stewart |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch |
| 2014 | Carl Edwards |
How to make Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
