The BC Lions host the Calgary Stampeders in the Western Semi-Final on Saturday. The Stamps barely made the playoffs with a 6-12 record while the 12-6 Lions clinched a home playoff game more than a month ago.
With such vastly different records between these teams, it's little surprise that Calgary is a significant underdog with CFL odds opening with BC as a 6.5-point home favorite. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Stampeders vs. Lions on November 4.
Stampeders vs Lions best odds
Stampeders vs Lions picks and predictions
These teams faced off at BC Place in Week 10 with the BC Lions destroying the Calgary Stampeders by a final score of 37-9. A funny thing happened after that contest, however, with BC's defense absolutely falling off the cliff.
The Leos had allowed just 17.0 points per game through their first nine games but surrendered 31.8 ppg during the second half of the season. That culminated in their season finale in Week 20 when they lost 41-16 to the Stampeders at home. To be fair, that was a meaningless game for the Lions and they didn't seem focused on either side of the ball, but it still says a lot that Calgary steamrolled them for 213 yards on the ground.
Calgary's offense has been wildly inconsistent this season, with quarterback Jake Maier struggling with his accuracy and the line doing a poor job in pass protection. That said, the Stamps have been able to run the ball and Maier tends to perform better when he has a healthy Reggie Begelton (86 catches for 1,119 yards in 15 games) to target.
Ultimately, I simply don't trust BC's defense given its collapse during the second half of the season. It also doesn't help that end Sione Teuhema (third on the team with seven sacks) is serving a suspension and starting defensive back Jalon Edwards-Cooper is out with an injury. With the Leos allowing at least 25 points in nine straight games, Calgary's team total of 20.5 is too low here.
My best bet: Stampeders team total Over 20.5 (-120 at 888sport)
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Stampeders vs Lions same-game parlay
Stampeders Team Total o20.5 (-120)
Ka'Deem Carey u53.5 rushing yards (-114)
Jevon Cottoy o44.5 receiving yds (-130)
+553 at FanDuel
While it may seem counterproductive to bet the Over on the Stamps team total while taking the Under on their starting running back's rushing yards total, it actually makes a ton of sense and provides a nice parlay multiplier.
Keep in mind that Calgary has been using a running back by committee approach lately. Since coming off the IL in Week 10, Carey has been splitting carries with Dedrick Mills who leads the team with 802 rushing yards and 6.0 yards per carry. That RB corps has grown by one more body, with speedster Peyton Logan coming back from a long-term injury to add 12 carries for 127 yards in the last two games.
In addition, with BC installed at -7, there's a decent chance that the Lions pull ahead and force Calgary to abandon the run due to a negative game script.
While I think that the Stamps will put up points, I also expect the Lions to have success on offense. The Leos rely on their aerial attack and one of their more consistent receivers has been Jevon Cottoy.
The 6-foot-5, 230-pound target has racked up at least 45 receiving yards in seven straight games and is averaging 63.9 yards per game during that span.
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Stampeders vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -6.5 and while that number is still widely available, some books have shifted the spread to the key number of 7. Meanwhile, the total hasn't budged from its opening number of 49.5.
The Lions won five of their final seven games, but with their defense struggling over the last few months, they haven't done a good job of covering the spread.
Against the spread, the Leos are just 2-7 in their last nine games while the Stamps are 6-3 ATS in their previous nine contests. That said, with the Lions struggling to stop anybody but also putting up points of their own, the Over has gone 7-0 in their last seven games.
Stampeders vs Lions trend to know
The Lions last nine opponents have cashed the Over on their team total. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Lions.
Stampeders vs Lions game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Saturday, November 4, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Lions key injuries
Stampeders: Branden Dozier DB (Questionable), Brad Muhammad DB (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), James Vaughters DE (Out), Titus Wall S (Out), Hugh Thornton OT (Out).
Lions: Sione Teuhema DT (Suspended) Jalon Edwards-Cooper DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
