The Ottawa Redblacks face off against the Montreal Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. These teams clashed in Ottawa last week with the Alouettes cruising to victory, and they'll look to sweep the season series against their rivals.
The Als have clinched a playoff spot but can't afford to let up if they want home-field advantage in the Eastern Semi-Final. Meanwhile, Ottawa is 4-11 but still has a chance at the postseason if Saskatchewan doesn’t win on Saturday.
CFL betting lines opened the Alouettes as 6.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 47.5. Here are my best free Redblacks vs. Alouettes CFL picks and predictions for October 7.
Redblacks vs Alouettes best odds
Redblacks vs Alouettes picks and predictions
The Alouettes clobbered the Redblacks 32-15 in Ottawa last week, but the Redblacks shot themselves in the foot with sloppy mistakes throughout that contest. They turned the ball over a whopping six times without a single takeaway of their own. That's a significant outlier when you consider that Ottawa entered Week 17 with the second-best turnover differential (+8) in the CFL.
Rookie quarterback Dustin Crum also had a rare nightmare performance just a week after being named the CFL's top performer by PFF. Crum had two passes picked off in the end zone, including one that was returned 108 yards for a score, and he also had a fumble returned for another defensive TD. However, Crum was able to move the chains completing 25 of 34 passes for 247 yards before getting benched in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Redblacks actually outgained the Als by 101 yards and had a 27-15 edge in first downs.
I'd lean towards the Redbacks in a bounce-back spot here but it's tough to trust a defense which allows a league-worst 10 yards per pass attempt, especially with multiple starters in the secondary on the IL and their top pass rusher Lorenzo Mauldin IV missing practice due to a neck injury.
Instead I'll back Ottawa's offense to do a better job of taking care of the football and finish drives. Ottawa has rushed for a whopping 138.8 rushing yards per game since Crum was inserted into the lineup in Week 5. Montreal struggles against the run, surrendering 5.7 yards per carry.
With the Redblacks scoring at least 24 points in eight of Crum's 11 starts, take the Over 20.5 on their team total for Monday.
My best bet: Redblacks TT Over 20.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Redblacks vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Redblacks TT Over 20.5
Devonte Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Caleb Evans anytime TD
Due to game script, Redblacks running back Devonte Williams was limited to just 25 yards on seven carries last week. However, the speedster had rushed for more than 80 yards in three of his previous four games, including monster performances of 136 and 146 yards against the Ticats and Roughriders, respectively. He should have a better performance on Monday against an Alouettes defense that has struggled against the run.
Montreal should also be able to move the ball against a mediocre Ottawa defense that has allowed the second-most offensive touchdowns in the league. That should mean another score for Caleb Evans, who has punched it into the end zone in five of his last seven games. The quarterback rushed for 16 touchdowns with Ottawa last year and has done an excellent job as Montreal's short yardage specialist, leading the team with seven TDs.
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Redblacks vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Alouettes as 6.5-point favorites but has ticked down to -6 at some books, while the total has stayed steady at 47.5. This spread seems a bit too wide when you consider that the Alouettes were just 1.5-point favorites last week and that neither team has enjoyed a home-field advantage in this rivalry lately.
While the Als have dominated the head-to-head in Ottawa, the Redblacks have more than held their own in Montreal. While they lost in Montreal earlier this season, they had gone 3-0 ATS in their previous three trips to Molson Memorial Stadium and actually won each of those contests outright as underdogs.
The Als have struggled against the top teams in the league but have taken care of business against squads that aren't on that level. They are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS against the Argonauts, Blue Bombers, and Lions, while going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS against the other five teams in the league.
The Redblacks have gone just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. That said, they have been putting up points during that span, and combined with their poor defense, has led to the Over cashing in seven of their previous eight contests.
Redblacks vs Alouettes trend to know
The Over is 8-0 in the Redblacks' last eight games following a straight-up loss. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Alouettes.
Redblacks vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Monday, October 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Alouettes key injuries
Redblacks: Lorenzo Mauldin IV DE (Questionable), Brandin Dandridge DB (Questionable), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (Out), Cariel Brooks DB (Out), Abdul Kanneh DB (Out), Nate Behar WR (Out), Drew Desjarlais G (Out), Lewis Ward K (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out).
Alouettes: Austin Mack WR (Questionable), Avery Williams LB (Questionable), Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Questionable), Kordell Rogers DB (Out), Chandler Worthy WR/KR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Landon Rice OT (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
