The Edmonton Elks head to BMO Stadium to take on the Toronto Argonauts on Friday night. CFL odds were slow to emerge for this Week 18 showdown after books took heavy losses last week when the Argos chose to rest star quarterback Chad Kelly and the public faded them.
That said, Kelly has been announced as the starter this week and CFL betting lines finally hit the board on Thursday with Toronto installed as a 7-point home favorite. Here are my best free Elks vs. Argonauts CFL picks and predictions for October 6.
Elks vs Argonauts best odds
Elks vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The big question is how motivated will the Toronto Argonauts be since clinching first place in the East three weeks ago? They have been resting key players on a rotating basis since, and if they were inclined to play most of their starters this week, this line would likely be in the double-digits, and with Kelly officially announced as their starter don't be surprised if it moves in that direction. It's also worth mentioning that starting running back A.J. Ouellete (184 carries for 894 yards) was also a full participant in practice after getting just one carry over the last two weeks.
Even if the Argos choose to rest Kelly at some point in this game, I like their offense to have success. After all, they have plenty of depth at wideout, a strong offensive line, and backup QB Cameron Dukes looked great on the road in Winnipeg last week. Duke completed 17 of 24 passes for 231 yards against a stingy Bombers defense and might have led the Argos to an upset victory if he wasn't taken out of the game for third-string QB Bryan Scott.
Besides, the Elks have been awful on defense and allow the second-most yards per play in the CFL (6.93). This is a unit that has struggled against both the run and pass and is also dealing with multiple injuries on the interior of their defensive line and in the secondary. Regardless of who the Argos have under center and how aggressive they are on offense, they should be able to move the ball.
That said, I am reluctant to lay the points on the home side since they clearly don't care too much about winning at this point in the season. They are also dealing with several injuries in their secondary with three injured starters (DaShaun Amos, Robertson Daniel, and Jamal Peters) sidelined. While the Boatmen will likely be able to put up points against this leaky Edmonton defense, they might also give up their fair share as well.
Keep in mind that since Tre Ford took over as Edmonton's starting QB in Week 10, the Elks have scored at least 24 points in every contest while averaging 29.1 ppg. The Argos quick-strike offense means that their defense spends plenty of time on the field and Ford's elite mobility makes him very tough to gameplan against. Expect a fast and loose game from both teams on Friday night and play the Over 47.5.
My best bet: Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Elks vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
The books clearly took a beating last week when the public heavily bet against the Argos and they failed to cover as 8.5-point road underdogs against the Blue Bombers (originally opening at +3 before it was announced that Kelly would sit).
Oddsmakers chose to avoid getting burned this week and didn't release odds until Thursday afternoon after Kelly was announced as a starter and we saw them run through practices. The Argos opened at -7 and immediately moved to -7.5 at some books.
The Argos have been one of the most dominant teams in CFL history, going 12-2 with an average scoring margin of +10.8. It's worth mentioning that those defeats came when Kelly was injured in the first quarter against Calgary and when he was given the night off last week.
Although they've gone 10-4 ATS and 11-3 to the Over on their team total, it'll be tough to back either play in the final month of the regular season since they intend on resting key starters.
The Elks still have a shot at a playoff spot but need to string together some wins and get help as well. After an ugly 0-9 start to their season, the Elks have gone 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS with Ford helping lead that turnaround.
Elks vs Argonauts trend to know
The Over is 5-2 for the Elks ever since Ford took over as Edmonton's starting QB in Week 10. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Argonauts.
Elks vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, October 6, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Argonauts key injuries
Elks: Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Nyles Morgan LB (Out), J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Daniel Ross DT (Out), Scott Hutter DB (Out), Sam Acheampong DL (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Steven Dunbar Jr. WR (Out).
Argonauts: DaShaun Amos DB (Out), Jamal Peters DB (Out), Cam Phillips WR (Out), Isiah Cage LT (Questionable), Robertson Daniel DB (Out), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Out), Andrew Harris RB (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
