The 109th Grey Cup kicks off tonight in Regina with the Toronto Argonauts facing off against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Bombers are trying to win their third title in a row and oddsmakers expect them to get it, with CFL betting lines opening Winnipeg as a 4.5-point favorite.
Money has since come in on the two-time defending champions who now sit at -5.5 with the Over/Under at 47.5. Here are my best free Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers CFL betting picks and predictions for the Grey Cup.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers best odds
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
The biggest matchup advantage for the Bombers is their efficient aerial attack led by MOP candidate Zach Collaros, and their pass defense which does an excellent at defending deep.
Both of those advantages might be neutered by the freezing temperatures in Regina on Sunday, turning this into a contest of who can run effectively, control the clock, and hold on to the ball.
The Bombers are excellent in those areas, with Brady Oliveira pounding the rock behind a strong offensive line, and Winnipeg turning the ball over a league-low 23 times during the regular season.
However, the Argos ground game got a huge boost with the return of Andrew Harris last week, their offensive line is the healthiest it's been all season and looked dominant against the Als, while their defense led the CFL with 48 takeaways.
Harris is a three-time CFL rushing leader and won the Grey Cup MVP with Winnipeg last season before signing with the Argos. He missed the second half of the regular season with a pec injury but looked healthy last week, making a good combo with A.J. Ouellete. Harris and Ouellete are also dangerous receivers out of the backfield and having them as short options in the passing game is tough for defenses to account for.
Collaros is a proven winner in cold weather who connected on some deep throws in the 2019 and 2021 playoffs, but his numbers have still dipped in those contests. He also hurt his ankle last weekend and while he will definitely suit up for the Grey Cup, his mobility in the pocket could be compromised.
If there's one thing that the Bombers have proven over the last few years is that they know how to win close games, but they don't always blow out their opponents and have a tendency to play conservatively once they pull ahead. With the Argos coming into this contest with lots of momentum, I'll take them with the points.
My best bet: Argonauts +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers spread analysis
The Blue Bombers rolled through the regular season going 15-3 straight up with an average scoring margin of +9.3 points per game.
They are coming off a hard-fought 28-20 victory against the Lions in the West Division finals. It was a close battle with Winnipeg dominating on the ground and benefitting from home-field advantage, with the raucous crowd at IG Field drowning out the Lions' offensive play calls on the final drive.
It will be interesting to see what the crowd sounds like on Sunday because while a large portion of the Winnipeg faithful will make the short trek to Mosaic, there will also be plenty of Roughriders fans who will root against their rivals.
Despite being decimated by injuries, the Argonauts ended up with the best record in the East at 11-7 and now they're getting healthy just in time for the biggest game of the year.
The Argos are 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, with one of those defeats coming in a meaningless Week 21 contest where they rested many of their starters.
Last week they beat the Alouettes 34-27, and while their defense gave up too many big plays, they were able to get crucial stops when they needed to in the fourth quarter. Their offense rolled up 446 yards with McLeod Bethel-Thompson completing 70.4% of his passes for 299 yards and backup Chad Kelly connecting on a 46-yard touchdown pass.
These teams played against each other back in July with the Bombers holding on for a 23-22 victory after Toronto missed a game-tying extra-point attempt in the final seconds. The Boatmen fought back from a 17-0 deficit in that contest with three turnovers from their offense, proving crucial since they also outgained Winnipeg 426-275.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers Over/Under analysis
Winnipeg's offense was a bit disjointed at the start of the year as it adjusted to the losses of Harris and All-Star wide receiver Kenny Lawler. But it managed to click by July and have averaged 31.9 ppg over its last 15 games.
The Argos' pass defense was torched last week — and it normally might be vulnerable to Collaros through the air — but the weather could hinder the passing attacks of both sides. Temperatures are expected to be between -6 and -12, with wind gusting up to 23 km/h (14 mph).
During the regular season, these were the two quarterbacks in the league most likely to attack deep (with Collaros more accurate) but with the weather, expect the ground games and short options to be relied upon. Especially with both teams boasting opportunistic defenses that can force turnovers.
The Bombers' defense held opponents to a league-best 20.6 ppg during the regular season while the Argos limited foes to 22.6 ppg before their meaningless contest in Week 21. With both offenses likely becoming one-dimensional on Sunday, the Under might be the play in the Grey Cup.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers trend to know
If you assume that CFL odds are already taking into account the cold weather in Canada at this time of the year, consider these two trends. The Under is 4-1-1 in Winnipeg's last six games in November while going 7-1 in Toronto's previous eight contests this month. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Sunday, November 20, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Argonauts: Eric Rogers (Questionable), Peter Nicastro (Questionable), Maurice Carnell (Questionable), Damonte Coxie WR (Out), Shane Ray DE (Out), Trevon Tate OT (Out).
Blue Bombers: Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Demerio Houston DB (Questionable), Malcolm Thompson DB (Questionable), Nick Taylor (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers weather
