The Edmonton Elks welcome the Montreal Alouettes to Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday. Edmonton has made massive improvements over the last two months but the Elks remain at the bottom of the standings and are officially eliminated from the postseason.
Montreal is heading to the playoffs for the fourth-straight season but home-field advantage for the first round could still be at stake. CFL odds opened with the Alouettes as 1.5-point road favorites before ticking up to -2.5 for this Week 19 showdown.
Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Elks on October 14.
Alouettes vs Elks best odds
Alouettes vs Elks picks and predictions
This is a tough line to bet on until we know the result of Hamilton's game on Friday night against BC. If the Ticats lose that contest, the Montreal Alouettes automatically clinch home-field advantage in the Eastern Semi-Final and will be less motivated to keep their starters in this matchup.
That said, even if the Als have already clinched second place in the East I still expect them to play most of their starters (especially quarterback Cody Fajardo) in the first half before possibly taking their foot off the gas in the second.
If that's the case the Als clearly have the better team in this matchup even with the strides that the Edmonton Elks have made over the course of the season. Sure QB Tre Ford is tough to gameplan against due to his elite mobility but he's also averaging just 177 passing yards per game over the last five contests.
Meanwhile, Edmonton's defense has shown some improvement but is still among the worst in the CFL. The Elks are seventh in the league in scoring defense (27.3 ppg) and yards allowed per play (6.86) and they've really struggled against the run.
Montreal doesn't stand out in any one area but doesn't have any glaring weaknesses either. The Als are fourth in the league in average scoring margin (+2.2 ppg) and although they've struggled against the top squads in the CFL, they've consistently beaten up on sub-.500 teams. They are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread against the Argonauts, Blue Bombers, and Lions while going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS against the other five teams in the league.
One thing that does concern me about the Als in this spot (in addition to their possible motivation if the Ticats lose) is that they are playing on just four days of rest after hammering the Redblacks on Monday.
However, they boasted a pair of impressive double-digit victories earlier this season on short weeks and also had a very competitive battle against the dominant Argos on just four days of rest. Expect the Als to at least have the lead entering halftime and back them on the first-half spread.
My best bet: Alouettes first half -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Alouettes vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Als at -1.5 and has ticked up to -2.5 while the total has stayed steady at 47.5.
This is the first and only time this year that these teams will face off and the Alouettes have been taking care of business against the teams they are expected to beat.
The Elks have shown fight over the last two months after starting the season off 0-9. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back lopsided losses but those came against very good Lions and Argos squads.
Prior to those defeats, the Elks had won four of their previous five games. Tre Ford has provided a spark at quarterback and the offensive line has also shown massive improvement, with left tackle Martez Ivey and guard Tomas Jack-Kurdyla emerging as studs.
Alouettes vs Elks trend to know
The Alouettes are 7-1 ATS against teams with a losing record this year. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Elks.
Alouettes vs Elks game info
| Location: | The Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, October 14, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Elks key injuries
Alouettes: Najee Murray DB (Out), Landon Rice RT (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Kordell Rodgers DB (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Chandler Worthy WR/KR (Out).
Elks: Brett Boyko RT (Questionable), Scott Hutter DB (Questionable), Marcus Lewis DB (Questionable), Nyles Morgan LB (Questionable), J-Min Pelley DT, Steven Dunbar WR (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
