Teofimo Lopez makes the first defense of his WBO junior welterweight title against the capable Jamaine Ortiz in our featured boxing attraction of the week, taking place February 8 at the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.
Lopez aims to land a major fight in 2024, but if he is anything less than 100% focused on Ortiz, he’ll once again taste a shocking defeat.
Boxing odds have Lopez a major -700 favorite, and Ortiz is a +450 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Lopez vs. Ortiz from Las Vegas.
Teofimo Lopez vs Jamaine Ortiz odds
| Method of victory | Lopez | Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -700 | +450 |
| Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +175 | +1,200 |
| Win by points or decision | -125 | +750 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 5, 2024.
Lopez vs Ortiz betting predictions
Picks made on February 8. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Lopez vs Ortiz boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Lopez ML (-700)
When Teofimo Lopez is on his game, he's easily one of the best fighters in the world and can make anyone he faces look like a class below.
He operates like a surgeon and has so many tools to negate his opponent’s strategy, and the wherewithal to adjust on the fly. However, for every night where he rolls over a Vasiliy Lomachenko or Josh Taylor, there are nights where he makes someone like George Kambosos a household name, or nearly suffers a career-threatening loss to Sandor Martin.
There is plenty of reason to worry about where Lopez’s head may be at any given time, but I don’t believe he’ll be anything but 100% focused on former amateur rival Ortiz. Lopez thrives on criticism, and he’ll want to use Ortiz as his example that he’s just as focused on a meandering opponent as he is chasing another major fight.
It will help Ortiz is carrying the biggest flaw of the two. An athletic boxer with a volume-orientated offense, Ortiz darts in, fires off combinations, and resets his opponents before attacking from another angle. He was nearly crafty enough to upset Lomachenko last year, but he can only take himself as far as his limited gas tank will go.
Simply put, Ortiz’s cardio is a bad match for his style, and he can’t maintain his output for 12 rounds. Lopez is the better-conditioned fighter with superior punching power and experience, and Ortiz’s constant attacking will have him playing into Lopez’s hands.
Prediction: Lopez moneyline (-700 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Lopez by decision (-125)
Ortiz will get outclassed, but I don’t think Lopez will put him out unless he catches him with a big shot early on. We’ve seen Ortiz use his speed and boxing acumen to avoid taking punishment, and he often charges forward behind fast combinations to keep his opponents off balance and move them to the ropes.
If anything, Ortiz will fight at a torrid pace for the first four rounds and might even be slightly ahead before he starts to slow down. Lopez may strategically let Ortiz set the pace early on, relying on his jab and footwork to negate his offense. The plan is to rapidly exhaust Ortiz, allowing Lopez to land heavier shots in the later rounds.
However, Lopez won't chase a big finish if he feels comfortable. Expect him to touch up a gassed and exhausted Ortiz on the back end, and be content to win a dominant decision.
Prediction: Lopez to win by decision (-125 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Lopez vs Ortiz betting preview
Lopez's impressive June 2023 victory over Josh Taylor elevated him to a two-division champion. The 27-year-old — known for his brazen and cocky demeanor — boasts wins over formidable opponents like Lomachenko, Taylor, Martin, and Richard Commey.
On the other hand, Ortiz emerged onto the scene with an upset over former junior lightweight champion Jamel Herring and a closely contested battle against Lomachenko. Despite his steady improvement, Ortiz's conditioning remains a vulnerability.
Having previously faced off in the amateurs, with Lopez emerging victorious, he holds advantages in punching power and experience. Lopez is expected to disrupt Ortiz's rhythm and exploit his conditioning issues strategically.
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