A sudden lineup change brings a twist as Tim Tszyu steps into the ring against Sebastian Fundora for the WBO and WBC junior middleweight titles in the Sin City tonight.
Keith Thurman is out, and Fundora is in to challenge Tszyu, arguably the division’s best fighter, though he may fare no better despite the slight element of surprise.
Boxing odds have Tszyu as a -525 favorite, with late substitute Fundora a +370 underdog. Here are my free picks for Tszyu vs. Fundora from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora odds
| Method of victory | Tim Tszyu | Sebastian Fundora |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -575 | +390 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -220 | +950 |
| Win by points or decision | +440 | +700 |
| Draw | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of Bet99 as of March 30, 2024.
Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora betting predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Tszyu ML
Even though this is a late change to the original plans (Fundora replaced an injured Thurman), this is a unique challenge to champion Tszyu and a better fight in every way. Thurman was a decided underdog and has fought twice in five years, moving up in weight against a surging young champion.
What has worked well for Tszyu is that he is very efficient with his offense. He can be an effective aggressor or be patient while trying to land a big shot, and he is a good puncher who fights similarly to his Hall of Fame father, Kostya. If Tszyu gets comfortable, he becomes difficult to fight off and can work his opponents over with his heavy shots and fast hands.
Fundora is no pushover and will have significant physical advantages in this fight, boasting a five-inch advantage in height and a seven-inch reach advantage. However, his defense is a liability when his opponents get inside his reach, and typical of taller fighters, he needs the full extension of his reach to land his best power shots. He is coming off a loss to Brian Mendoza, who knocked him out with the first big punch he landed once he got inside.
I expect this to be a good fight, especially because Tszyu might struggle early against Fundora’s reach. However, Tszyu is the better fighter, and Fundora can’t keep him outside the entire night. I’m picking Tszyu in a competitive fight.
Prediction: Tszyu moneyline (-525 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 7.5 rounds
Fundora gets hit a lot when the fight gets on the inside. Mendoza knocked him out, and Erickson Lubin knocked him down but couldn’t finish him off. By comparison, Tszyu battered Mendoza in close quarters and put a beating on him when they fought last October.
Once Tszyu gets inside Fundora’s range, there is a possibility he could land a shot to the head or the body that could potentially end the fight. Tszyu is an excellent combination puncher on the inside, and Fundora won’t be able to defend himself from constant attacks while he’s looking to clinch. The first few flurries might not do it, but as the fight wears on and Tszyu does more damage, a stoppage could happen.
My best bet for the fight is that it goes Over 7.5 rounds. Fundora could survive until the end, while Tszyu could threaten a knockout later in the fight, perhaps around the championship rounds. Either way, I expect Tszyu to take a few rounds to figure out Fundora’s style, with any dramatics happening on the back end of the fight.
Prediction: Over 7.5 rounds (-115 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora betting preview
Tszyu’s rise through the junior middleweight ranks saw him take on all comers, hoping for a fight with Jermell Charlo that never materialized. The second-generation star became a world champion after his punishing win over Mendoza last October, and he’s beaten the likes of Tony Harrison, Jeff Horn, and Terrell Gausha to become the new face of the division.
Fundora is making his first appearance since his April 2023 loss to Mendoza. The upset loss cooled the momentum of the Palm Beach southpaw, but he remains one of the best fighters in the division. The tall, lanky Fundora can pile on the punishment and isn’t afraid to give up his natural advantages to go on the offensive.
So much of this fight will depend on how Tszyu reacts to an essential blind challenge. Fundora’s length could trouble Tszyu, but Tszyu’s best punch has always been his whipping straight right hand, which is the best weapon to use against a southpaw.
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