TJZags598

 Explain it with facts. What odds do you use. Lets see.

I explained the odds quite clearly. Probability does not lie. Match is factual.

@Ilovefootballs

 We about to find out!

Syracuse qb out for year?

Rickie Collins is GREEN.

i like them, just not as much.

I have met Russell Wilson. He is the FARTHEST thing from a bum anyone could ever be. everyone should have a son like him.

He does the following:

1- Why not you foundation

2-Make a Wish

3-Autism speaks.

4-weekly visits to the Seattle Children's Hospital for kids with cancer. every week.

5-Walter Payton Man of the year

6-Bart Star Award winner.

7-Russll Wilson Quarterback Academy for poor youth.

8-Feeding America during Covid to feed people in need.

Wilson has ALWAYS given back to the community he plays for.

Fine, you want to say he washed up as a QB, that's accurate. To call him a bum? What are your credentials?

Analytics don't favor going for 2 at all.

You have a 25% chance of winning the game ( assuming you get the onside) if you go for 2, then 1.

If you kick the extra pt both time( again assuming you get the onside again) you have a 53% chance of winning in overtime

home teams have historically won 53% of games in OT.

Harbaugh is wrong. There is a reason why he has blown 3X more second half leads than any other team the last 10 years

@TJZags598

 So if you take out the bottom feeders, 2pt conversions last years were 36%. Thats an awful gamble for a good team to make.

I can certainly argue that there were some tush pushes in there when teams got penalties to make it a 1 yard 2 pt conversion, maybe the overall number is closer to 33% overall?

The Strategy of 2 pters is to push them off as long as possible, to keep momentum going, morale high, and possibility to win game as much as possible.

@brn2loslive2win

 Last year, 2pt conversions were 55 for 135 or 40%. This year 7 for 21 or 33%. But lets dig deeper. The top 2 pts conversion teams last year:

Cleveland Browns 5-8

NY Jets 5-9

Washington Commanders 4-6

Jacksonville Jaguars 4-7

Tennesse titans 3-4.

Notice something? All the worst teams in football, sans the commanders, are the best at converting 2 pts plays. HUH? how can the abysmal teams be so good at only one aspect of the game? Lets dig deeper. Can it be that these teams are so far behind, that the other teams don't care/don't play defense/have 3rd stringers in to boost the overall numbers? The Clevland Browns have been the best 2 years running now, but their record awful!

I didn't do all games yet, but when 2 winning teams play each other the 2 pt conversion rate is closer to 25%, and i believe its actually closer to 20% in the 4th quarter, of tight games.

Defenses have caught up to the offenses on 2 pters, without doubt.

I never saw what others saw in Cade. He is the WORST QB on the run, especially right, in the NCAA's.

You are right though; it deflates the rest of the team.

@Titusblink

 1H is always higher on Baltimore.

Harbaugh is best first half coach in football.

Its second half he implodes.

@unplucked_gem

I handicap without lines. Takes the bias out of the analysis.

Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!

All good points; the game has become more dynamic with a lot more variables to consider.

I also think that teams have tendencies. Andy Reid believes in FG's and Xp.

Dan Campbell believes in going for it on 4th down.

Winning teams rarely go for 2

Losing teams go for 2 alot more frequently.

i stick to hard fast rules, and dont deviate, and dont complain about the outcome.

I had Dallas over, and Pittsburgh over. Talk about bad beats!

I had Chargers -2.5 and Browns Ml. That was pure luck.

They all even out in long run. you really have to play where you have edges, even is so slight.

Dak got paid. Not all players deserve to get paid.

@brn2loslive2win

 To your point- This has a major impact on the spreads that Vegas puts out.

Most people don't think a half point means anything.

Statistically 1/2 a point on every game over the long run is the difference between losing and winning (at -110 juice).

Key numbers ( at -110) need to be respected. 

-2.5 at -110 has a Huge advantage over -3 at -105.

So average lines are down, making it easier for favorites to cover? 

Trend wise, probably.

Yet Vegas never loses. Maybe they are on to something?

Maybe they flipped the script. They know American gamblers like underdogs, and have sold under dogs short?

The goal of the line maker is not to set perfect lines; its to generate action. Books want action; they cant lose with the vig over the long run. The only goal of the line is to generate action. They need the line to be competitive, of course, but do the care who wins the game in the long run? not really.

@TJZags598

 Home Advantage:1.13

Predictor:.89

Golden Mean:1.11

Recent 11.39

Strong Recent:1.39

On Jeff sagarins Home page, his NFL ratings. Even lower in his Predictor Golden Mean Models.

@brn2loslive2win

 Great observations, all accurate.

The trend in betting lines the last 15 years, for the most part, is Spreads are getting lower and lower.

Part of it is Home Field advantage has gone down about 2 pts in calculations.

Sagarin used to use a Home Field factor of 2.9-3.1. This year he is down to 1.13. Imagine Home Field is now worth only 1 point.

A great example yesterday was Chargers versus Broncos goes off at 2.5

The favorite won, but in years past that line would have been 3. Most games back in the day went off at either 3,4,7 & 10. 

Was the book giving money away? No. They want to generate action. They want people to take sides on a game. Thats why we see so many 2.5 & 3.5's now.

They also want people to buy into additional juice. They know that the NFL is not outcome certain. Just look at Falcons-Panthers outcome yesterday. Or New Orleans Seattle.( New Orleans held Seattle to 320 yards for 44 pts?)

I am the President of Arm Chair Coaches Association; otherwise known as ACCA.

This is the 5th time Gano has been "injured" in pre-game warmups since Daboll has been coach.

Not the first game this has cost the Giants. I am not even a Giants fan, and I know that has happened quite often.

Its on Daboll. He decides every year to carry a kicker who is injury prone. Cost the Giants against Washington last year, the Jets the year  before.

FFS getting the kicker right should be the simplest of decisions; loyalty to a kicker who pulls his groin like the rest of us sneeze is pure stupidity.

Huh?

I have the Colts +11

He has a horrible book