brn2loslive2win

With a general consensus of the 2pt try being successful around 50% of the time, you expect it to work 1 out of two times. So why would you not go for it the first time? 

@unplucked_gem

 Also looking at laying up to 10 with the Rams. Any thoughts?

@unplucked_gem

 I was already predicting the “free TD” and 2pc as soon as the lions went up 14! Thankfully they failed but you’re right, pushing to 6.5 may have been a mistake. But!, I can’t remember the odds on -7.5 but even a tiny piece on that number would have been a pretty sweet hit. I look to continue experimenting with this next week. Im considering laying 13-16 with Detroit next week vs Cleveland and up to 6 with Baltimore. Any opinion on those? 

I know that many will think that Cleveland could be extremely tough on defense and rightfully so. But the way that Detroit can get after the qb it could be brutal for the browns next week. When Goff plays at home it’s extremely difficult to hold the lions under 30 points. And as I mentioned in another thread, is it possible that the lions are actually better with the loss of the two coordinators? That the loss to GB was just a poor performance and that the Lions are on their way to a 13ish win season? Also looking hard at Detroit over 10.5 wins at -130…

@Buffalobob89074

 I’m not sold on the go for two strategy 100% either, but the fact that extra point kicks aren’t a guarantee makes me like it a little more.

@Buffalobob89074

 GB -7 to Dallas. How in the world is this not double digits?! With GB playing well on defense, the return of Parsons to Dallas, and the fact that Ceedee is injured?! Not to mention the absolute pathetic defense that Dallas is playing right now. Just seems like the type of game that gets out of hand in the first half. I can see GB just marching up and down the field all day long.

@mchriste619

 Definitely agree with Houston. The way the O Line is playing I’m not sure they could be more than a 3 pt fav over any team in the league. The only thing I can think of is that the books expect a strong showing at home from a desperate team. Still not buying that angle 

@JoseAlonso787

 I like it. The Colts have been impressive but are not in the same class as LA. The Rams were embarrassed last week and will be hungry for a win at home. The Colts on the other hand are on cloud nine with victories over the lowly Dolphins and Titans, and an extremely fortunate win over Denver by 1 point. If Indiana Jones proves me wrong then so be it, but this game has double digit victory written all over it for the Rams.

Everyone assumed that the lions would fall apart upon the departure of Johnson and Glenn. For some reason it was an assumption that they would forget how to play on offense even with a boatload of talent. It was also assumed that the defense would be worse. Well, first of all, the soft zone defense that Glenn was a proponent of sucked anyway. And it still sucked tonight as Baltimore had guys wide open all night. That said, they looked phenomenal up front and in the middle of the field. Maybe, just maybe, the Lions will be better this year without the old coordinators…

@Ppkay

 It’s very simple. You’re down 14 points. If you score and go for 2 and get it, you now need one more TD with the standard XP to take the lead. If you don’t get it and stay down by 8, you will have a chance to go for 2 again to tie the game. If you disregard this option and score two TDs and kick two XPs, you are just playing for a tie game anyway.

With a success rate estimated at between 48 and 55 percent, the assumption is that if you go for a TPC twice you will succeed at least once. So knowing that you go for it the first time and the reward is massive if you pull it off. The penalty for failing the first time is only that you need to succeed the second time to tie the game, putting you in overtime exactly the way you’d end up by kicking two XPs.

@unplucked_gem

 Well, after our discussion earlier today I placed a handful of wagers on tonight’s game. And believe it or not, I hadn’t even seen this thread.

Detroit +4.5 1u

Detroit -1 .25u

Detroit -3 .25u

Detroit -4 .25u

Detroit -6.5 .25u

In your eyes it might be a little bit of a cop out to take the +4.5 and -1, but as someone new to this strategy it felt…comfortable. I felt good about Detroit tonight and for the exact reasons you mentioned above, I felt good about the alternate lines. I appreciate that you took the time to explain your strategy and why you stand by it. I ended up more than tripling my initial investment. Cheers brother 

“I don’t let the books tell me who the favorite is” -unplucked_gem

It is only a racial slur when a white person uses it. The same way it would be racist to create a TV channel focused on white entertainment. The same way it would be racist to put a sign in your front yard that says white lives matter. 

Feel free to preach brother. I’m here to listen and learn!

I do and I respect it! If I’m not mistaken, your strategy of selling extra points with the favorite at +money would have worked well again this week!

@TJZags598

 Understood. 

Im also thinking that the shorter lines are a reflection of the further XP, rate of missed XPs, and increased rate of 2pc attempts. Lines like 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 used to be less significant. 

I know that for me previously if I was laying 2.5 I was expecting a minimum of a 3 point win. And on the other side if I was taking 2.5 I was giving the dog a good chance to win outright. Not the case anymore. It seems to be very common for a 1-2.5 point favorite to win and not cover. And for a 1-2.5 point dog to lose (consistently) and still cover the number. 

Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!

wow this must have just changed recently. Last week? I swear he had 2.11 for the first two weeks!

Good to hear from you TJZ. Always appreciate your responses.

Where did you see that Sagarins rankings are using 1.13 for HFA? Looking at his rankings page (I think I’m looking at the right one?) for 2025, I see that he still uses 2.11 for HFA?

Im not in disagreement with any of this. I don’t expect that the dogshit teams are going to miraculously be good teams. But the spread is there for a reason. And I’m certain that the books aren’t happy about the rate of favorites winning s/u and ats over the last 20+ weeks of nfl. 

I guess I’m just curious to know how long it will take for things to regress back to the mean and if the strategy should be to just pound the favorites until it happens. There may be a gravy train to ride for a while. 

At the end of last season I thought there was no way this could continue for another season, but maybe it will…

Favorites are killing me again this year. Line shopping, CLV, hours of handicapping, referring to proven model predictions just isn’t bringing me any success anymore and tbh I’m beginning to lose enjoyment in doing the work. I just made a thread about favs vs dogs. Wtf is going on here?!?

Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong…

After doing a quick and admittedly very lazy search, favorites are 27-20 this season so far. 57.4% win rate.

Of course there are a few games with tight spreads where the fav switches and depending on the line that you got that number could be inaccurate. 

I can’t remember what the final numbers were for last season, but it was insanity again. As someone who bets more dogs than favorites, last season was a nightmare. And this year looks to be a repeat of that…

So what’s going on here? Is there a logical explanation? And is there a point where blindly betting every favorite every week is a strategy worth taking? 

Overreacting in the betting market is usually a recipe for disaster, but is it time to believe that maybe this is not an overreaction? Are the books failing to put an accurate number on these games? Is betting favorites the easiest way to make money in the NFL at this point?

Tua is awful. As a head coach McDaniel is definitely dropping the ball. He doesn’t seem like the type of guy that’s going to keep a disciplined and focused locker room. But Tua has to go first. I say give the coach a season with another quarterback and if he gives the same results then you clean house.