brn2loslive2win

@undermysac

 The game was a joke.

@RayRayK

 Their all star wide receiver is still there. Puca!

@JoseAlonso787

 Seems so easy that it’s terrifying. Gl 

@Europa

 And this is only because of the last 3 or 4 weeks. The favorites were up to 54ish percent at one time this season I believe. 

@Raiders22

 Not to mention the pressure that will be on Sammy boy in this game. That’s an angle that’s been so solid over his career. Backing him in this spot takes balls I don’t have.

@Raiders22

 I couldn’t agree more. I hate that I like a chalky play on a stand alone game. Everything points to a convincing victory for LA to me. 

Darnold doing what he always does when things get serious towards the end of the season. A lot of people like to talk about the last game where he threw 4 picks and they almost won. Well what’s to say he doesn’t do that again? I’m getting the best team in football at a short number. On the road no less, but Seattle has played some of their worst ball at home if I’m not mistaken. 

Really surprised to see some sharp money on Seattle. Are they ignoring the most important pieces of a football team in QB/OL? Or rather expecting a stellar defensive performance? I think I have to take the chalk with LA and DET this week and just hope for a normal performance out of both teams and no funny business. 

@Raiders22

 Thx for posting Raiders. It’s gonna be hard for me not to take LA on Thursday night. Care to talk me out of it?

@SecretAgentMan1

 I’ll tell you what I thought about the game against Miami. And that’s absolutely nothing. I think there’s a few college teams that would have been competitive against Tua last night. That said, 7 is a big number. 

The thing about Pittsburgh is that when things aren’t going well Rodgers throws his on field temper tantrum and quits on his team. He’s been doing it since his last year in Green Bay. Maybe earlier. Detroit on the other hand is a franchise desperate to give its fans a chance at a Super Bowl. I don’t agree with Dan Campbell a lot of times, but his team plays hard for him. And at home off a loss they’ve made me a lot of easy money this year. Lay the number and if the trend comes to an end so be it. Or if you like teasers this is your ideal spot. GL

@fubah2

 This is why the interception market can be very profitable. I’ve been working on a  “system” for betting on QBs to throw an interception (or two) on a weekly basis and I’m up a few units on the year. Don’t get me wrong I’ve made my share of bad bets but I’ve also cashed some very profitable +money tickets. 

Two weeks ago when the Titans played the Browns I bet Cam Ward to throw an interception at -110. At the time Cam hadn’t thrown an interception in 4 games. 
Now because of the reasons you stated above, it’s extremely unlikely for even the elite quarterbacks in the NFL to go 5 straight games without an interception. It’s just so difficult to do considering the fact that the interception doesn’t have to come on a bad pass from the quarterback. It happens multiple times a week where either a ball is tipped at the line or a wide receiver has a ball bounce off his hands up into the air for the taking. 

And so the oddsmakers offered up a bet that in my opinion could not be refused. A rookie quarterback, playing an upper echelon defensive unit (with the league’s leading pass rusher), who has not thrown an interception in 4 games. All for the bargain price of $1.10. 

Pay attention to this market. There is money to be made. 

I say put them both in a gladiator arena and make them fight to the death. And then immediately release the lion to finish off the winner.

Rams are the better team with the better quarterback imo. But watch out for the special teams. The kicker for Seattle is currently making his case for the best in the business. If Seattle needs a long last second field goal to win, this guy will deliver. 

Theo 

For anyone else who wants to have a little fun on this, you can parlay Trevor Lawrence 2+ ints with Philip Rivers 2+ ints for a cool price of +2400 or better. If you bet with retail books that offer profit boosts this could get even more interesting…

Thx buddy. 2 would be a nice hit, 3 would be a windfall 

@Raiders22

 I’ll have a full unit on this. 0.5u 1 int. 0.25 on both 2+ and 3+

@Raiders22

 Trevor is on a 2 game stretch with no INT. This ties the longest stretch of the year for him which he’s only had once. At +112 it’s a must bet for me. 2+ at +550 and 3+ at +1800 are absolutely worth a shot. When players like Trevor go a couple games without a pick those streaks usually end with a multiple turnover game. 

@cd329

 Here’s another perspective on this whole thing. Most “public bettors” don’t even know what the line on a game is until Sunday morning. They wake up on gameday and say “I want to gamble! Football is on!”. 

There will be thousands of people who will wake up tomorrow and say I’m taking Houston -10.5! That defense is so good, they’re going to crush Arizona! My response to that would be you’re taking Houston-10.5?? -9.5 was available all week…

My point is that the majority of the betting public doesn’t give a shit about betting splits. They’ll bet the game at any number once they have their mind made up. Because team A is “better” than team B. And the books know this. You could tell your buddy tomorrow that you know a professional gambler that put 3 million on Indy tomorrow. They’re still going to tell you that they love Seattle and they want to take them -14, -15, -17, they don’t care. They know what they want and they have their minds made up. 

@cd329

 Don’t understand why you think that it’s such a detriment to the books to release this information. Think about a scenario where they are actually being 100% honest.

1. Public and sharp money on the same side 70/30. If releasing this information is accurate you should attract contrarian players who are simply just fading for the sake of fading. All that will do is attract money on the other side which is exactly what any book would want. 50/50 split=guaranteed profit. 

2. Public on one side/sharp on the other. The handle is already lopsided. They move the line to adjust which will attract more public money to balance the books. Let’s use BAL/CIN as an example. If sharps are hammering BAL -2.5 and the public already likes CIN, then by moving the line to CIN +3 they’ll just attract more public money to CIN to help balance the books. The sharp money will slow significantly once they get to BAL -3 because they already got what they wanted at 2.5, before the key number of 3 was out or crossed. 

Things like this are why you see very late movement just before kickoff. Sharps will eat up short lines in advance if they think it makes sense, or they’ll wait until the very last minute to get the dog at the best number or to catch a critical middle opportunity. Just because you see a lopsided split right now doesn’t mean it will be lopsided at kickoff. Often times you’ll see the handle flip completely right before kickoff. This is why you have to be careful trying to steam chase during the week. You may think you’re on the sharp side while you watch the line move, but just before kickoff you might realize that the sharp side is just the opposite of what you thought it was. 

I can’t think of any reason why books would put out false information. First of all public players usually have their mind made up as soon as they see the schedule. They certainly aren’t going to completely change their opinion just because they see betting splits. And not to mention, at this point in the modern gambling world, there’s so much money on every game that has nothing to do with the side or total. Player props, lightning bets,teasers, Moneyline parlays, player prop parlays… All of these things are priced so that the player loses over the long run. I don’t think the books are nervous one bit to put out honest info about betting splits. All they want is action in every way possible. When you put a vig on every bet it’s impossible for them to lose over the course of a season. 

@justliketoplay

 Just to add a little to my story- I remember my old man telling me that this guy had been taking action for 30+ years. I said wow he’s been doing it that long and never got caught? His response was “caught? Half the police in town bet with him!”