brn2loslive2win

Let’s revisit this now that week 6 has concluded. There was not a single game where buying points would have gained you anything. You could make a very poor case that you could have bought the Saints up to +6 at a ridiculous price and gotten a push out of it, but again that would have been foolish. 

Im happy for any person on this planet that is winning money at sports betting. But to advocate buying points is foolish and has been discussed at length on this forum over the years. Buying points will do nothing but cost you in the long run. Try selling them if you want to be more profitable.

@Way2Good

 Disagree on Titans. Vrabel will lay it on thick vs his old team.

@Yanasaur

 
Looks like the oddsmakers are in agreement too. To open up at -7 with the Jaxson Dart hype and the very lackluster performance from Denver last week tells us quite a bit. 

@Yanasaur

 Do you have an opinion on the Denver/NYG game? 

Imo the win over Philly last week will give many a false sense of confidence in the G-men. Lots of public money will roll in on the Giants + a TD or more. 

The truth is that Philly didn’t even show up for that game. It didn’t even look like they wanted to be there for a majority of the time. Not to mention that Philly is very much like the Bills right now in that they’re a talented team/good organization that can’t get its head out of its ass at the moment. So I’m not putting a lot of stock in that W. 

Then there’s the Denver angle of which they embarrassed themselves in a 2 point victory over a team that finished the game with less than 150 yards of offense.  I know you’ve been backing the Jets lately so we may differ in opinion on that game…

Anyway it just seems like both the Broncos and Giants should head in the direction of what they really are this week. I’m thinking it’s a defensive battle where Dart comes back down to earth, maybe turns it over a couple times and the Giants struggle to get in the endzone. Denver at home should get some traction on offense and look to show KC that they’re a contender. I’m thinking 23-13 or 27-17 type of game where Denver can win by 10+. Any thoughts?

@Yanasaur

 Pittsburgh off the bye won and covered as well. Not a big deal against Cleveland but the bye is showing to be critical so far.

And that’s the big question and the deciding factor. In every Houston game. CJ stroud has regressed big time because of the awful offensive line that he plays behind. Two years ago I thought Houston was a Super Bowl caliber team. Right now I’m suffering as a Houston division winner future holder (pretty large too). But I’m willing to take 3.5 and bet against Sam Darnold in a great spot for Houston. GL and good analysis 

@Yanasaur

 I haven’t actually checked the numbers but if I’m not mistaken, teams off a bye are absolutely crushing it this year ats and SU

Drake Maye and it’s not close. Drake showed that he could play at the pro level almost immediately. The fact that he’s playing the way he is now early in his second year has HOF potential written all over it. 

Jayden to me is just a health risk at all times. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL quarterback with his stick figure body type. I would bet that the injury bug haunts him his entire career. 

Caleb just haven’t seen enough good performances to even put him in the same category as Maye.

Houston catching 3.5 off a bye to Seattle who seems to play their worst ball at home? This is the type of defense that can give Sam Darnold a fit. But can stroud stay on his feet??

Tampa Bay catching 5.5? I expect Detroit to bounce back and play better this week but I don’t see how Tampa can get 5.5 from anyone right now. Baker is possessed and should keep his team in the game right till the end. 

Haven’t seen the injury report yet but unless Detroit gets multiple starters back on defense I think this says auto play on Tampa. But it’s never quite that easy…

@unplucked_gem

 Enjoy the game gl to your bills

@unplucked_gem

 Bills -9 +190. This game is either very tight with ATL potentially winning or a Bills blowout winning by 7-10. I’ll take my chances with the most talented QB in the league with a sleeper top tier RB in cook.

My take on this “super aggressive” mentality is this-

If you’re going to coach this way, especially in last night’s game where Campbell made it a point to say that he knew they needed 30 points to win, I think he should have stuck to his guns even more! On the first possession I think he should have gone for the TD even after the penalty for the illegal pass play. He was committed to going for it from the 2 yard line but then got scared away from the 7 yard line? It’s arguable that it is EASIER to score from the 7 (or 6 or 8 whatever it was) than from that close. He was never going to win that game kicking fgs with the injuries to the secondary. 

In general I hate that teams are giving up field goals to go for 4th down so much, but if you’re going to have that mindset I think you should at least commit to it 100%.

@Buffalobob89074

 Although I obviously think the widespread legalization of sports betting is a good thing, I despise the fact that the nfl has literally partnered with the gaming industry. I always expected that when sports gambling got to this point that the leagues would continue to operate in “ignorance” of the gambling aspect. The fact that they are talking about spreads and player props in the pregame and showing betting related things in the corner of the screen during the game is widely inappropriate imo. 

I’m not a full on fixed game conspiracy theorist, but it doesn’t look good when they’re encouraging gambling on the games and showing Draftkings commercials throughout the entire game. I always get a kick out of the “know your limits/gambling addiction commercials” immediately followed by an “expert” giving out his picks in the pregame LOL. 

The NFL has certainly sold out along with Goodell and it’s a horrible look for sports. I couldn’t agree more. 

@FillyFlier16

 You look to be in a great position moving forward! Lots of good teams to choose from. I ended up actually having a play on the raiders yesterday and never had to sweat it much. Just a risky pick in survivor. After all, the way they played yesterday I’m not sure they could have beaten anyone but the Titans. But I’m glad it worked out for you. GL going forward and hopefully you don’t have to use too many more “hold your nose” picks. 

@DupontsChannel

 Ok let’s wrap this conversation up. You were on the “correct” side with the jets who barely managed 100 yards. I would imagine for a serious gambler like yourself you had at least 5k on the game. So your $5k wager won you about $3500 at -145 +9.5. 

If you had taken the jets at +7 right around even money at multiple times throughout the week, you’d be up right around $5k. So your ridiculous buy to 9.5 actually cost you $1500. But as a very serious gambler I’m sure you already understand this concept and how it affects your ROI over a lifetime of gambling. Congrats on your victory. Next time I hope you place your wager in a way that makes you a ton more money.

@FillyFlier16

 Assuming you only need to pick 18 teams or less to win I don’t see how the raiders could be an option at any point 

@Robards

 Good call. I think getting Denver at anything less than a TD in this game is a solid bet. 

@DupontsChannel

 I don’t live anywhere near Vegas or bet with any Vegas Sportsbook. But I know you kids think that “Vegas” = sports book

@DupontsChannel

 I hope the Jets cover 7.5 or win outright so that when you come back to try and tell everyone you were right I can laugh at you for costing yourself money with your buy to 9.5