Yanasaur

Nice write ups. I hope you get back on the winning side. College has been very tough for me this year too. I think I know something and it goes completely opposite. I did actually play South Bama this past week at 14.5 and thought they would roll after seeing how well they played against better competition the last couple weeks, but maybe they are just one of those teams that only plays well as a dog. 

Im on Virginia w the 7.5 and moneyline. Thats the only game ive played so far. 

I also like Pitt, Illinois, and Arkansas which I did a small moneyline parlay on with Virginia. 

Good luck this week 

I have added more to UVA +200 ml.

Also going to make OKST a play but will wait and see if we can get 21 or 21.5. 

Probably will also play ASU, but going to wait and see what happens with the line.

Not going to play Syracuse. 

Maybe will play Washington. 

Probably not playing any of the other ones

Added:

Watching this Philly line, seeing if it goes to 3. I will still play at 3.5 and even 4, so theres no rush and I'll just wait to see if we can get a 3 and I may sell some points. I faded Bucs last week and will fade them again. They've had to make 3 incredible last minute drives to win now in 3 weeks against not great teams. The magic ends this week, I predict they get stomped by the Eagles who are a great team that can put other teams away.

They found another gear this past week when they had to chuck it around finally and had a close call and got lucky to win let alone cover. This week they will put the pedal down and win convincingly. I think they will be able to completely shut down Tampas offense as well. 

PHI -3/-3.5/-4 whichever it is, its a play. Tampa had no business laying 7 to the Jets, and they should actually be a 6.5 to 7 dog in this matchup

The Lamar Jackson that threw 41 TDs and only 4 picks last year? Yea hes terrible at throwing. Definitely the worst in the league 

@unplucked_gem

 Im glad you think so, so its not just me. I need to start looking at road faves and faves in general more. 

What is your theory about how running clock would affect things? Maybe leads to faves covering more bc faves are more likely to get more first downs and have longer possessions? Therefore it extends the time of possession advantage they have since the dog would have less available time remaining to them?

This is a great thread. Something I've thought about but havent incorporated much in my process and know I should. 

I have a theory about the favorites covering, particularly road favorites. No idea if this has any merit though. My possible theory is that a lot of bettors have now come into the market and probably learned what I did when I started, which was, laying points on the road is normally a bad idea. I have always been averse to taking road faves since I started betting. It served me well for many years, but the past 2 years have been different. Im wondering if the betting public just loves home dogs and dogs in general more than they love faves now and therefore the road favorites are priced much lower than they historically wouldve been and therefore are covering more. 

Bang

Toss on the goal line is just a horrendous decision. Never works. Shouldve play actioned to andrews on 1st down wouldve been wide open. Even on 3rd. Instead you throw it 3 yds backward when you have a defense on goal line w their ears pinned back to rush

@unplucked_gem

 Great post. You make an excellent point. Its something I've thought about but rarely do I take advantage of Alt lines. For me personally I know its something I need to be incorporating into my game more. 

He finally gets one:

Mark Andrews TD +160

w a sprinkle 1st TD +1100

Lamar tried to hit him in the endzone in the Browns game. Tonight they link up.

@theMatrix24

 Hitting the uprights? You think they are good enough to do that on purpose with wind and guys running and jumping at them from 40 and 50 yds out? Or do you believe the football is remote controlled by some nerd in a bunker? Come on man that is absurd even as far as conspiracies go to think they can hit it on purpose. Just due to the sheer number of kicks of course some are going to doink

Had a great week 3 with our ugly dog plays going 3-0 w +200 ml hit on Carolina. Ended the week 10-5, 2 of the losses were smaller plays on a TD prop and TEN ml. 

Locked in a couple early plays at numbers I like. 

NO +16.5 - Auto play. Just a whole heaping pile of points. Buffalo took a nap during the Miami game and let them back in and I expect they may do the same here. They may get up 20-3 and go on cruise control running the clock out and never be challenged and win 27-13. Buffalo just does not cover when double digit faves typically, and history says hardly any teams cover when favored by this much. 

TEN +7 - Lost on TEN this past week. Expected them to show in a division game and I think the game wouldve been more competitive if not for a pick 6 by Ward on the 3rd play of the game. Now we have TEN as a bigger dog and in division again and I thought this number shouldve been 4 again. 

LAR -3.5 - Indy 2nd straight road game, I think they come back to earth. Rams were able to bottle up Saquon pretty well and I think they will do the same to Taylor. Danny Dimes finally gonna make some mistakes here. The Colts insane offensive run comes to an end. I will put more on this one if the line dips to 3. 

Will have props later in the week

@DynastyOne

@Last2thirst

 Yea Angelli being out is definitely not a good thing. I wont be playing that game but it is interesting. 

That is one of the hardest things this year is figuring out where the bookmakers are trying to lure us. Things have changed with the proliferation of betting. You cant just bet dogs and win. I always hated laying points on the road and its something I almost never do, but things have seemed to flip where laying points on the road is often a good play now. Too many people aware of home dogs I imagine and you just aren't getting value like you used to. 

Nice write ups. I like Pitt, Cincy, Utah St, and Miss St

This proved to be a good exercise last week. They went 4-2. This week looks trickier to me so I'm hoping for some discussion about these lines that are sticking out to my eyes. 

UVA +7.5 - Looks like a nice upset special and I have bet it already with confidence. This is the only game of all these that I have actually bet yet. 

ASU -2.5 - Classic unranked team favorite over ranked team is interesting. Havent bet this though, dont think theres any value here. 

ARK +5.5 - Should ND be laying this to a good Arkansas team? ND is confusing me this year. I thought they had a good defense but they got ripped by TAMU, then they smoke Purdue, but gave up 30 there too. But Arkansas lost a tough one upset on the road. Do they come home focused?

SYR +6.5 - Should Duke be laying 6.5 on the road? Syracuse played tough against Tennessee for most of that game and has now beaten Clemson, who granted are not what they should be but still a good win for Syracuse as a 17 pt dog. They were horrible at home against Uconn though but snuck a cover in OT in a game they shouldve lost outright. Is this a weird team that only plays well on the road? I havent forgotten how sloppy Duke was against Illinois. Have they righted the ship enough to justify this number against a decent team? This one is puzzling.

PITT +3.5 - I thought this number would be more like 6. These Louisville/Pitt matchups always seem to favor the dog also. The low number makes me think Pitt gets the upset. 

WASH +9.5 - Another one where I thought the line would be a little higher. Upset special?

IOWA +7.5 - Indiana is a good team but Iowa seems to have found some offense this year and we know how good their defense is. Weird things happen in Iowa games...

CAL +6.5 - Cal going east, but its a late kick. BC is coming off bye, but I just dont see how BC should be laying this much. 

OKST +20.5 - The Cowboys suck. But they get an extra day, and have they been embarrassed enough yet that we get a quality effort out of pride? Plus I dont trust Baylor to lay 3 TDs on the road, at home, anywhere, to anyone. They are a team that plays well as the dog. Gotta think it will be tough to get up to play OKST on the road after that hard loss against ASU at the final seconds. 

WVU +10.5 - Number seems a little low to me and makes me suspicious. Also have west coast team going east for an early kick. 

MSST +9.5 - Another one that seems a little low. More Cowbell?!

BAMA +2.5 - Is Bama good again? Do people love them again? Why is this 2.5? Because Bama beat up on Wisconsin? Georgia's defense is suspect...but Bama got torched by FSU and Castellano...I dont get this one at all. 

@ULLafayettekid

4-2 not bad, guess I gotta get my confidence back and trust myself again

8-4 with a +200 ML hit and one of those losses just a small Njoku TD prop and one a small TEN ML sprinkle,  and 3 bets still pending in CHI, Nix rushing, and Harrison. 

Lets gooooo

Well well. Just go w my gut then I guess. 

Tulsa, Purdue, Michigan, all winners.

3-0 pending SC, ECU, and SHSU who all covering currently. 

I bet 0 of these games bc I lost confidence after week 3.