Yanasaur

Tennessee might have a nice boost from coach firing. Ive played them twice earlier this year and lost both. I just cant go there again with them, but this does look like a good spot and the one to be on them. 

I dont like the Saints play. Chicago just got a couple important members of the defense back and they looked much improved. I dont know if Saints can score enough to stay in this number. Ben Johnson has this Chicago offense looking pretty good. 

No opinion on Minnesota, seems like a coin flip game decided by a fg in the closing seconds. 

Good luck 

Another note about this Seattle/HOU game. Seattle has been absolutely terrible rushing the ball. For some reason they continue to play Charbonnet 50% even though Walker is far and away the better back. Darnold has been good, but basically their entire offense is JSN. Houston has the defense to lock down JSN and then they are in trouble unless Horton and Arroyo and Barner step up big. 

Houston has the multiple offensive weapons to beat this Seattle defense like Tampa did. The only question mark is will Stroud have enough time? I think he will. 

Added: 

HOU -2 (+175) - Going alt line here. We hit Seattle alt line over JAX last week, and now going against Seattle as they make their long cross country trip back to play at home against Houston. Houston coming off bye with a very solid defense and a little offensive spark after blowing out the Ravens. Seattles defense is good but their secondary is vulnerable as Baker Mayfield showed us. Stroud should have a very strong passing day. I think Houston wins 24-19

Noah Fant o24.5 rec yds - Flacco loves throwing to TEs and TEs have been doing very well against Pittsburgh. Fant should be busy. 

Drew Sample TD +1300 - Going small of course on this one for huge plus money. Last week Tanner Hudson caught a TD from Flacco. Drew Sample has gotten quite a few TDs of his own in this offense over the years. We'll take a shot that its his turn this week when they need a sneaky option from 10 yds and in to beat the Pittsburgh D. Hudson and Fant are live as well but I'm not playing all 3, so we will hope we got the right one w the biggest plus money. I would bet one of these 3 TEs score Thursday. BONUS - Drew Sample 1st TD +7500, why not?

This was a game that caught my eye but I honestly dont have a strong opinion. SMU really hasnt impressed me. Not that Clemson has either, but I can absolutely see SMU getting blown out in this game more easily than I can see them winning. 

I was on USC big against Mich, but ND seems to have really hit their stride and I dont think I want to step in front of them. I just dont like this spot for USC at all going on the road. They won that Michigan game comfortably but watching it they missed a lot of opportunities. Against a team like ND with a much better offense that may kill them

@spottie2935

 Thank you my friend, my suspicion was correct then. I was indeed thinking that UCLA would be the play. A fade of Maryland, and I actually like what UCLA is doing. 

I was on them this past week and not fading them off the big win because they were still undervalued in my opinion. They were never as bad as their early season performance. The talent was always there. It wasnt a typical dog getting lucky or playing way above their heads in their superbowl for that season. 

I am going to make UCLA a play, but my book has 3.5 right now so ill wait on that

Houston is going to be a play for me. Coming off bye with a very solid defense and seattle cross country amd back trip. They win this game. 

The Tampa number looks right to me. Too many injuries piled up for them now and Detroit at home. 

If anything they tried to help Washington. Last Washington drive they got a free first down from a very clean hit on daniels on 3rd down bc he hit his knee and didnt get him perfectly square in the midsection

Its the right number. I actually had just a tick higher. You cant make Carolina a road favorite. As bad as the Jets have looked, they are actually very effective running the ball and the defense is improving. They could easily be 2-3 right now but mental mistakes and penalties cost them. As far as X and Os this line makes sense. In most cases we cant adjust numbers too too far from preseason yet even in week 7 without major injuries. 

The biggest line that jumped out to me is Cincy catching 6. I posted this as a play immediately in my thread. Pittsburgh is not that good. Laying 6 in division on Thursday is nuts. And if you watched the Green Bay game you could see a huge improvement on defense for Cincy. These guys are hungry. I think they win straight up Thursday night. I had this game at a flat 3. 

So far so good, good luck Jimmy 

@RUM151

 Thank you my friend. Youre right, Miami game wasnt really decently close as I said. I was on Maryland last week too and the week before that. 

What is interesting about Maryland is that they've covered as a dog in back to back weeks but lost both games. I would be interested to know historically how teams perform after covering and losing in back to back weeks as a dog. I really dont look into stuff like that in my handicapping as far as trends, but for that one in particular I could see maybe there being something of value. 

Sounds reasonable 

You could well be right, but I will give you an alternative viewpoint. 

Despite giving up a lot of yards, especially on the ground, it is part of the Buffalo game plan. Theyve been like this for years under McDerms. They give up massive yardage between the 20s and then buckle down in the red zone. In their past 4 games they gave up 10, 21, 19, and 23. They'll let Bijan rack up yards, but once they get in the red zone they hold them to a field goal. The Bills offense is elite, if they dont allow long scores and hold opponents to field goals while they cash in TDs they win. 

I dont know about Atlantas defense being all that. Other than limiting Baker in week 1, they faced hopeless JJ McCarthy, then gave up 30 to Bryce Young and 27 to Mariota. I dont know if Atlanta can score enough to cover. Its hard to hold the Bills under 30. 

Matt Milano is great, but the guy plays 3 games a year if youre lucky, theyve always been without him. 

You are right, traditionally these Bills never cover big numbers. But I'd have to be getting 6 with Atlanta here to feel good about taking them.

@undermysac

 Hmm that is interesting. Couple of teams I really dont know much about. Its hard to follow these small schools

Imagine getting paid that much money to make horrible decisions and suck and then to continue getting it to do nothing 

Yes Jets should finally get their first win by running all over Carolina. Breece for 125 and a TD maybe 2. Jets defense is playing much better the last couple games and should be able to keep Carolina in check. I will likely be on them too. Wanted to see if people bite on Carolina improvement and push that number to a pick or possibly even flip the favorite. 

Disagree on Seattle. I will probably be on Houston alt spread laying a couple. Seattle coming home from long cross country and back trip and Houston coming off bye after a big momentum and confidence building win at Baltimore. Seattles defense which has been solid can be beat up on by a good QB as Baker showed us. 

Arent you all the same person? Thats what I assumed anyway. Is this a multiple personality disorder situation?

I am of the opinion that coaches cant see the forest through the trees and should not have the responsibility of game management decisions. I cant believe no organization has hired a new position of game manager yet. They need a guy that sits up in the box w the coordinators and is divorced from the emotional swings of the game and can make sound game management and flow decisions. 

They should be relegated to New Jersey where they belong

Not a very good week 6. Luckily we hit Trey McBride TD +220 yesterday to make it not a complete disaster but it we ended up in the red. Missed Andrews prop by 1 measly yard, missed Ayomanor by 3 yds. Chargers up 13 late and in complete control and then Chargered away the cover. But we were dead on target with Seattle and LV so that was good. On to week 7 and greener pastures...

CIN +6 and -2 (+250) - Thursday night tasty home dog. Flacco found a rhythm in the 2nd half @ Green Bay, but the biggest positive was Cincys huge improvement on defense. This team was motivated and playing hard out there and was impressive in how they limited Green Bay and kept themselves in the game. If you watched the Pittsburgh game, yuck. Cleveland was a completely disaster and yet Pittsburgh could barely do anything. If they were playing even a semi competent team they wouldve been cooked. I am not impressed with Pittsburgh AT ALL. Laying 6 pts on the road in division on a short week is a joke with this team. They just laid 6 at home vs Cleveland and now they are going on the road laying 6 at Cincy? The final score is indicative of Cleveland just not being able to score in the red zone whatsoever due to incompetence. This was a 2 TD blowout in score only. 

More to come but had to get this in as I'm sure this will come down. I wouldnt be surprised if it closes at 3.