Messy

Thanks for the insights, guys. I've had more success focusing on the very recent stats as opposed to long trends. I find the Covers Print sheets very valuable.

At the same time, it is hard to ignore those kind of streaks like 10-0 or 9-1/L 10, etc. and I always take a look before making the final call.

All the best with your picks.   

I was all ready to pull the trigger on the Canucks/Islanders Under, then I double-checked and see:

Vancouver Canucks/New York Islanders have gone Over 10 meetings in row.

Do these type of trends pull you off a bet?

@ll49ers63

 At least 10 players in the Top 50 haven't made a pick for years. #3 last pick was 4 years ago, #6 last pick was 8 years ago!

I don't know why they don't clean it up, it makes it look like they don't care and makes Covers look incompetent.

Same here - NHL - Anaheim/New Jersey stuck. 

Fixed - Thanks!

Nov. 27 NCAA Basketball game not graded:

Vanderbilt 89  VCU 74 

(Vanderbilt covered the spread of -6.5. The total score of 163 was over 160.)

Sunday November 16 Grey Cup game not graded:

Saskatchewan Roughriders 25 Montreal Alouettes 17

Sunday, November 16 Grey Cup game not graded:

Saskatchewan Roughriders 25 Montreal Alouettes 17

Best with your picks.

I like the Red Wings as well, while the Flames have really struggled out of the gate. 

The Devils won last night in Toronto, while the Wild are waiting for them back in Jersey. 

@JJWoods

 "Your buddy?" I don't know mollydog personally and was just doing a cut and paste basic 101 line movement reasonsY for the original poster.

He clearly was not promoting touts or other sites, but giving a couple of examples of how to track real time line movement and you want to cry to the mods and try to nail him like a petty tattletale?

For a guy that has only been a member here for a year taking shots and making accusations at veteran cappers that have been here for over 15 years comes across as arrogant and pompous.

"Numerous others doubting your credibility, these forums state it all clearly." Really? A bunch of jealous, mediocre handicappers with IQs lower than room temperature that don't do their homework know the score?

There are a handful of outstanding sports handicappers here and mollydog is one of them. He has obviously put in years and years of research and developing a system that gives him the best chance of beating the books. You can beat lines regularly if you are good. It takes a lot of time and effort to cap properly, to win consistently you need to cap a game 10 ways to Sunday without cutting corners and to accuse someone of cheating is insulting and disrespectful.

mollydog is the man when it comes to College Football, WNBA and even the Canadian Football League. If he was cheating, do you really think he would be #2169 in the NFL contest, #943 in the NHL contest or go on a 1-9 run? Sometimes even when you cap the heck out of a game, you aren't even close, it is a tough grind.

You should be apologizing all over the place.

There are several key reasons sportsbooks move lines, with each factor influencing the direction and magnitude of line movement:

• Betting volume: When one side gets the majority of wagers, oddsmakers will shift the line to balance risk. In football, lines may also move around a key number—such as 3 or 7 points—to minimize exposure on these critical margins.
• Sharp money vs. public money: A few large bets from professional bettors can move a line more than hundreds of small public bets. Sportsbooks closely monitor the public betting percentage to see how much of the action is coming from the general public versus sharp bettors.
• Injuries and news: The status of a key player, such as Patrick Mahomes’s injury, can significantly impact line movement, as sportsbooks adjust odds to reflect the absence or return of a crucial team member.
• Market confidence: If sportsbooks see risk across multiple books, they may move the line in sync.

A classic example: If the Chiefs get a flood of moneyline bets, sportsbooks will adjust the price to make Ravens bets more enticing.

The thing to remember when discussing the opening line, is that it is just a jumping off point. It serves as a starting place for bettors to enter the marketplace and hammer the line out to where they believe it should be. 

In theory, professional bettors will make a wager when they believe the current line does not accurately reflect what the information available suggests it should be. Bookmakers will react to these wagers looking to find the number that either divides the professional bettors or stops them from playing altogether. In the end, the most respected professional bettors will dictate what the betting line is, not the bookmaker. When recreational players make large wagers these wagers are often ignored due to the fact that they have no bearing on what the actual point spread should be and therefore have no reason to be reflected in the line.

The early bird gets the worm -  getting in early increases your chances of "beating" lines.

Other factors:  Oddsmakers change lines in response to new information and betting market dynamics to manage risk and attract balanced betting action. They use sophisticated data models to set the initial lines, but these are constantly adjusted leading up to the game.

• Normal line movement: As betting action comes in, the line moves in the same direction as the majority of bets. For example, if most of the money is placed on Team A as a -7 favorite, the line might move to -7.5.
• Reverse line movement: This happens when the line moves in the opposite direction of the majority of public bets. If 75% of public bets are on Team A at -6, but the line moves down to -5.5, it signals that large, sharp bets are being placed on the other side. Oddsmakers respect the sharp money more and adjust the line accordingly.

@fastNfurious

 Why post it in the Claiming Prizes thread?

Feel like I need to stick up for Covers here...

I've won 3 hats and an Amazon ecard from Covers and never had an issue. They email me, I email them with proper info and prizes arrive promptly.

The hats are great, I love 'em, excellent quality, but I guess you can't win them anymore as now it's an Amazon eGiftCard which I also received recently without issue.

Myles in prizing has been great. Perhaps people having problems are not providing proper contact info/address/email? 

Or maybe this is the problem...Limit one username per person, per email address, and per IP address. If Sponsor detects usernames in excess of these limits (for example, an individual has more than one username or multiple IP addresses are linked to the same username.

Congrats, Foodbank! 

Nice mix of MLB, CFL, WNBA in the streak topped off by a College Football Under for 17 in a row and a $1000 clams!  

All the best going forward   

@vegasdano

 Too many to list, but baseball probable pitchers at MLB.com is a good place to start to at least get the correct pitchers starting for the day.

One of the best features and helpful tools over the years have been Covers Print Sheets. I'd say the last few months at least, they have gone downhill in a big way.

I can no longer trust them and have to double check. Today again they are incomplete and have several wrong probable pitchers. They have cost me a few times.

Incomplete, wrong pitchers listed, inaccurate information and stats. It is like there was a person who was remarkable that was doing them and is no longer there.

Covers should have kept that person and given them a raise - the print sheets were great for years and now they are unreliable.

There also haven't been CFL print sheets this year all season. I am now using other sources for my betting information as I cannot depend on Covers print sheets.

17 wins = $1000 USD.

It is interesting as hudsoncty3344 has won every pick for 10 straight days.

Obviously feels Tulane football will get it done. Hope it is a winner for hudsoncty3344.

Game is Over - not graded. Looks like trouble.

Rain outs should be PPD - it's a different day, different weather, a different cap altogether.

If I had a big streak riding on it, I would not be happy.