Molly LINES

Molly gets diff lines than everybody else.  Why is that

The early bird gets the worm -  getting in early increases your chances of "beating" lines.

Other factors:  Oddsmakers change lines in response to new information and betting market dynamics to manage risk and attract balanced betting action. They use sophisticated data models to set the initial lines, but these are constantly adjusted leading up to the game.

• Normal line movement: As betting action comes in, the line moves in the same direction as the majority of bets. For example, if most of the money is placed on Team A as a -7 favorite, the line might move to -7.5.
• Reverse line movement: This happens when the line moves in the opposite direction of the majority of public bets. If 75% of public bets are on Team A at -6, but the line moves down to -5.5, it signals that large, sharp bets are being placed on the other side. Oddsmakers respect the sharp money more and adjust the line accordingly.

The thing to remember when discussing the opening line, is that it is just a jumping off point. It serves as a starting place for bettors to enter the marketplace and hammer the line out to where they believe it should be. 

In theory, professional bettors will make a wager when they believe the current line does not accurately reflect what the information available suggests it should be. Bookmakers will react to these wagers looking to find the number that either divides the professional bettors or stops them from playing altogether. In the end, the most respected professional bettors will dictate what the betting line is, not the bookmaker. When recreational players make large wagers these wagers are often ignored due to the fact that they have no bearing on what the actual point spread should be and therefore have no reason to be reflected in the line.

There are several key reasons sportsbooks move lines, with each factor influencing the direction and magnitude of line movement:

• Betting volume: When one side gets the majority of wagers, oddsmakers will shift the line to balance risk. In football, lines may also move around a key number—such as 3 or 7 points—to minimize exposure on these critical margins.
• Sharp money vs. public money: A few large bets from professional bettors can move a line more than hundreds of small public bets. Sportsbooks closely monitor the public betting percentage to see how much of the action is coming from the general public versus sharp bettors.
• Injuries and news: The status of a key player, such as Patrick Mahomes’s injury, can significantly impact line movement, as sportsbooks adjust odds to reflect the absence or return of a crucial team member.
• Market confidence: If sportsbooks see risk across multiple books, they may move the line in sync.

A classic example: If the Chiefs get a flood of moneyline bets, sportsbooks will adjust the price to make Ravens bets more enticing.

 Messy,

Spot on and well laid out. The worst time to make selections are the day of the game. Most of the value has been sucked out of the opening numbers by then. My philosophy is to typically play with the smart money early. If you disagree with the line momentum and movement and want to play the other team, the best strategy is to wait until kickoff. This locks in the most advantageous line on that other team.

OMRebel,

If you know in advance who your backing, there are sites like Freeplays, Wagertalk or even VegasInsider showing real-time lines and line movement from multiple sources (Vegas, offshore etc). The real-time line moves give you an edge on seeing where the lines are moving before they impact the Covers or the US Sportsbooks. The line moves don’t guarantee winners, but it helps on insight to who the smarts are loading up on. Let them do the work.

In the end, you still need a lot of luck IMO. Best of luck to you….

Mollydog

super shrewd advice!!! Not sure for it’s kosher to name all these competing websites? 

But I’m not sure what’s allowed anymore… 

“If you are promoting a service in any forum (including that of a ‘bookie’) other than Website Promotions, your account may be suspended or banned at the discretion of our Moderators and Support team.” 

Im not going to lie, I looked into your two suggested websites freeplays and wager talk (my goodness) I had to sort through 32+ Paid Touts and their offers before I even came close to monitoring line movement…I was’t impressed and it honestly looked like you were sending readers to Pay for Plays Handicappers. 

Let’s be safe out there everybody… 

I don’t feel right suggesting this…I thought it was crystal clear not to promote touts and other services.. 

I prefer unabated when studying movement…among others.

Hope this helps, I have no affiliation…just don’t want members to be mislead.  Lots of Sharks with offers on their locks out there…

JJ 

Thanks JJ…..

All,

Like I said, there is always one hater in the bunch. Never fails, no matter how you aim to help those inquiring. I relayed sites that simply share real-time offshore line movements as the vehicle that can be leveraged to give you the point spread edge. Has absolutely nothing to do with any paid services. I’ve never given a soul a penny. Good Lord, can’t make this stuff up.

So much for honesty, always one soul out there trying to cause a scene. All that said, best of luck everyone, let’s keep on winning. 

Mollydog

@mollydog

 I think you entirely missed the point …and call me a hater or distract the conversation…not hating at all and certainly not the “one soul causing a scene” (I think you’ll find 100’s doubt your credibility) 

I 100% thought it was against the rules to promote other sites…I was wrong, my bad. If that hurt your feelings, well, that’s on you bud.  But the name calling is silly….  

Here is a question I doubt you’ll answer honesty… Mr Mollydog, in the past 16 years how many different “king of covers”  contests have you won and the amount of cash winnings taking home? It’s astronomical and actually impossible to do, if you truly handicap sports as the contests are built for…..and that your incredible sports handicapping knowledge is your only advantage over the rest of the community for over 15 years… 

if I’m wrong, it’s not the first time, but I’m certain something besides handicapping games and your magical two websites has taken place. And to single me out, well, that’s on you makes you look guilty as we all know this has been a topic for years.  I ain’t the only one who smells a facade.  

best of luck I’m sure you’ll just keep crushing everybody for the next 10 years…and it’s all coincidental  

After almost 40 years in the business, i absolutely know what’s possible and real… you’ve clearly used an advantage to manipulate the contests. Take care, truth hurts…. JJWoods 

Your buddy trying to explain why lines move was yet another slap in the face to the community…. We’re all adults here  That advice so well laid out was hilarious .  

you knuckleheads, lol…  

Actually, good idea…. Attenion MODS. Is it ok and not against the rules to mention other websites and the advantage their data has ?    

I have one I think is much better than the ones Mollydog suggests in order to get the advantage on the contests?  

But I’ll state again, it just doesn’t feel correct to the Covers Team and this website… please advise guys..

respectfully and following the listed guidelines, JJWoods 

Current NCAAF King of Covers :

Mollydog  with 25,300 units.   2nd place is 7,250 units behind. 
18,050 

good lord! Can’t make this stuff up!    

The excuses or reasoning behind claiming to be “100% just using sports handicapping and a few websites to try and help everyone gain an edge” but yet blowing every other competitor away by 30%+ is fake news, and reckoning will come. 

Nobody in the history of Sports Gambling has even come close to your record… not even close.  And if they were that shrewd…they would certainly not be discussing with me why they’re is clearly something wrong with how you’ve won contests a hands over fist.  Stay honest please and stay in touch… and if I’m the only single person looking for attention as you state, well then you really are snowblind to what’s happening with numerous others doubting your credibility,  these forums state it all clearly. 

No Kings Day. Standing up for all the good guys here.  Best regards Molly Dog…My dogs name is Harry! 13 year old GSP…

howwwwl dogs rule take care 

JJ,

As a father of two and an average Joe in Central Ohio, I have built, through research, trial and many errors, a strategy and practice I put in to cracking the Bookie/Vegas armor. Sometimes it works, though still terribly inconsistent, some times it fails. I enjoy the challenge. On this site alone, I believe I have helped many out. I wish everyone here luck, the odds and juice are against you. 

I’ve said on several posts prior, including the response on this thread, I leverage the offshore line movements in grabbing the line early, or if your allegiance is on the other side, waiting and letting the line work for you. I also factor dozens of scamdicapper free picks to fade plays they “want you to play”.  

I shared the sites that I personally use to see offshore line changes to give everyone the opportunity to gauge where the smart money is going. Ultimately, the smarts win more than lose, but it’s not bulletproof. I’m an embarrassing (-75k) in baseball units this year, that why they call it gambling. 

You spun it that I was potentially promoting pay sites, which, I assure you, would never, ever be the case. I was answering the question as to how I jump the line trends. So much for honesty and trying to help. IMO, if you pay for someone’s plays, this definitely isn’t the hobby for you.

Listen, regarding the “standing up for good guys here” quote, I’m not here to make friends, that’s another site. But I’m definitely not here to make enemies, that’s also another site. My hope is to be more consistent and help others win $$$ if that is there shtick. 

I joined this site in ‘08 the day our dog passed, thus the name Mollydog.
My regards to Harry. My in-laws own a farm here in Ohio and swear by their GSP.

All the best

Mollydog 

@mollydog

"I’m an embarrassing (-75k) in baseball units this year, that why they call it gambling. "

____________________________

Yeah, I never understood that, how you can do so well in other sports contests, yet baseball seems to elude your grasp. What are you thoughts on that?

@tvigilante2020

...and hockey as well?

@JJWoods

 "Your buddy?" I don't know mollydog personally and was just doing a cut and paste basic 101 line movement reasonsY for the original poster.

He clearly was not promoting touts or other sites, but giving a couple of examples of how to track real time line movement and you want to cry to the mods and try to nail him like a petty tattletale?

For a guy that has only been a member here for a year taking shots and making accusations at veteran cappers that have been here for over 15 years comes across as arrogant and pompous.

"Numerous others doubting your credibility, these forums state it all clearly." Really? A bunch of jealous, mediocre handicappers with IQs lower than room temperature that don't do their homework know the score?

There are a handful of outstanding sports handicappers here and mollydog is one of them. He has obviously put in years and years of research and developing a system that gives him the best chance of beating the books. You can beat lines regularly if you are good. It takes a lot of time and effort to cap properly, to win consistently you need to cap a game 10 ways to Sunday without cutting corners and to accuse someone of cheating is insulting and disrespectful.

mollydog is the man when it comes to College Football, WNBA and even the Canadian Football League. If he was cheating, do you really think he would be #2169 in the NFL contest, #943 in the NHL contest or go on a 1-9 run? Sometimes even when you cap the heck out of a game, you aren't even close, it is a tough grind.

You should be apologizing all over the place.

TVigilante,

Wish I could wrap my arms around that one. Baseball and Hockey seem to be my kryptonite. Lots of work to do here. Hoping to solve for them both in the near future.

Best of luck to ya….

Mollydog

Fair enough, thanks for the reply… I appreciate the time. 

@Messy

 Numerous others doubting your credibility, these forums state it all clearly." Really? A bunch of jealous, mediocre handicappers with IQs lower than room temperature that don't do their homework know the score?

you stay classy… what’s your capping credibility? You speak like we’re 14 year olds.  anyhow, say what you want, I’m hitting a legitimate 66-42 ATS in NCAAF… certainly feels like your riding coattails and making it worse actually.  If you’re also hitting over 60% ATS on legitimate and obtainable lines that the members can take advantage of…..well then, my apologies.  If not, you should be apologizing to me   

I do have one more question Mollydog (cool central Ohio, I know some connections with Centerville HS, Dayton and Colombus). 

My question is in your methods, obviously requiring volume galore…. To you even know the names of the Coaches or QB’s?  I’m assuming and could be wrong, that you’ve mastered clearly,  as you say “cracking and breaking the Vegas armor”.. that the niche is math and numbers related, or is it IT and the speed to catch the faults?  Over the decades I’ve personally attempted both.  As a retired broker from the floor, I understand how numbers breathe etc. 

I wasn’t sure you would honor with a reply so good on you, and 100% i sincerely would like to study your methodologies. Especially with how technology has changed in the past 17 years…

I still have an outside shot at the NFL and will maybe try your hand if you want to help the people out… 

If you’re just repeating what you’ve shared in the past, even a link to reference would be cool.  I would think, Theres a specific exact minute that Covers updates their lines after they’re revealed from offshore. Some of the deltas I’ve seen on yours are insane… I take this hobby waay to serious and spend a lot of hours on games that could be better off volunteering, humane society, etc. Really hoping to learn a little more…. I also found this site in 2008 when working on the other side on the west coast and only observing before joining… and wow, holy hell you got a gift Mr Ohio. Please advise if you find the time … JJ