jokerbee

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replied to THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by jokerbee: Polar Bear, did you just post KC-Oak Under as a play for you this week? I thought you liked the Over? Nevermind, I misread it. You've been on the Under the whole time. BOL my friend. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 09, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting Polar Bear, did you just post KC-Oak Under as a play for you this week? I thought you liked the Over? View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 09, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting You may some good points, appreciate your analysis. However I do disagree strongly that Oakland defense has improved at all. The last 2 games were against Denver and NYG, 2 of the worst offenses in the league, AND both against a backup QB. The last real offense they played (New England) put up 33. Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: The fact the first game was a shootout does not mean the same will happen Sunday. The Raiders have changed defensive coordinators since that game and the defense has played much better since doing so. The Raiders had 4 sacks in the 4 games previous to Norton's firing, they have had 8 in their last two games.They had 6 takeaways in their first 10 games but 3 in the last 2. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting You may some good points, appreciate your analysis. However I do disagree strongly that Oakland defense has improved at all. The last 2 games were against Denver and NYG, 2 of the worst offenses in the league, AND both against a backup QB. The last real offense they played (New England) put up 33. Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: Amari Cooper almost certainly will not play Sunday due to a high ankle sprain and if he does he will be useless. He is doubtful right now. This actually will not hurt your over because Patterson is dangerous and had a great game last Sunday and he unlike Cooper probably won't have like 5 drops in the game. The fact the first game was a shootout does not mean the same will happen Sunday. The Raiders have changed defensive coordinators since that game and the defense has played much better since doing so. The Raiders had 4 sacks in the 4 games previous to Norton's firing, they have had 8 in their last two games.They had 6 takeaways in their first 10 games but 3 in the last 2. That first game was a prime time solo game and there were a lot of drives and scoring plays that were helped out by flags. Coincidence? Perhaps, but the chances that, that many flags help out that much again are slim to none. The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between the two in K.C and 18-7 in the last 25 meetings all together, the two generally play hard fought slugfests the last game not withstanding. Marshawn Lynch has been slowly getting better each weekend and last weekend had his best game of the season and got 20 touches, you can expect more of the same Sunday as well as other Raiders back running the ball as well. It is part of their new approach to control the game better and not have their defense on the field as much during a game so the will try to slow the game down. Add to this the Chiefs allow a whopping 4.3 yards per carry and you can bet your old Honda that the Raiders will be trying to run the ball all day. Under is 8-3-1 in Chiefs last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 17-7 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Chiefs offense exploded last weekend but in the three games previous they scored a meagre 36 total points. Alex Smith did very well last Sunday with a 135.9 passer rating. However in the 2 weeks prior he was a dismal 76.0 and 61.5 respectively. In fact he has not had two consecutive weeks with a decent passer rating in the last 7 weeks so if that pattern continues we can expect another dismal showing from him Sunday, Who knows, man it could end up 31-30 again, that's why they play the game but the two teams are literally very different than they were when they last met and the situation and site is also completely different. As you can see I am clearly against you. Should be a good game. I would say good luck but I would not mean it so instead I shall say hats off to you if it hits for you sir and cheers View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting You make some good points, appreciate your analysis. However, I disagree that Oakland defense has improved that much. Last 2 games they played were...Denver and NYG, 2 of the worst offenses in the league. So it's dangerous to use those games to mean anything. When they last played a real offenses (New England), they gave up 33. Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear: Amari Cooper almost certainly will not play Sunday due to a high ankle sprain and if he does he will be useless. He is doubtful right now. This actually will not hurt your over because Patterson is dangerous and had a great game last Sunday and he unlike Cooper probably won't have like 5 drops in the game. The fact the first game was a shootout does not mean the same will happen Sunday. The Raiders have changed defensive coordinators since that game and the defense has played much better since doing so. The Raiders had 4 sacks in the 4 games previous to Norton's firing, they have had 8 in their last two games.They had 6 takeaways in their first 10 games but 3 in the last 2. That first game was a prime time solo game and there were a lot of drives and scoring plays that were helped out by flags. Coincidence? Perhaps, but the chances that, that many flags help out that much again are slim to none. The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between the two in K.C and 18-7 in the last 25 meetings all together, the two generally play hard fought slugfests the last game not withstanding. Marshawn Lynch has been slowly getting better each weekend and last weekend had his best game of the season and got 20 touches, you can expect more of the same Sunday as well as other Raiders back running the ball as well. It is part of their new approach to control the game better and not have their defense on the field as much during a game so the will try to slow the game down. Add to this the Chiefs allow a whopping 4.3 yards per carry and you can bet your old Honda that the Raiders will be trying to run the ball all day. Under is 8-3-1 in Chiefs last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 17-7 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Chiefs offense exploded last weekend but in the three games previous they scored a meagre 36 total points. Alex Smith did very well last Sunday with a 135.9 passer rating. However in the 2 weeks prior he was a dismal 76.0 and 61.5 respectively. In fact he has not had two consecutive weeks with a decent passer rating in the last 7 weeks so if that pattern continues we can expect another dismal showing from him Sunday, Who knows, man it could end up 31-30 again, that's why they play the game but the two teams are literally very different than they were when they last met and the situation and site is also completely different. As you can see I am clearly against you. Should be a good game. I would say good luck but I would not mean it so instead I shall say hats off to you if it hits for you sir and cheers View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic THE CONVICT week 14 in NFL Betting 2-1 on the season. Took a beating my last play week 11 on Cowboys vs Eagles. Admittedly, I completely misjudged the momentum of Eagles, and the effects of Zeke/TSmith/SLee. Thought the home team getting lots of points in an NFC East rivalry would be enough, and that Cowboys would rally around their injured players. I was wrong. Am still going to fire away when I see big value CONVCITion plays, which won't be every week. This week 14, the play is the KC-Oak total: Take OVER 48.5 1) Oakland prob getting both of their star receivers back 2) KC defense hasn't stopped anyone all year, including the JETS last week 3) To add insult to injury, Marcus Peters, arguably KC's top defensive player, will be benched this game 4) Division rivals will fire back and forth in a game that will prob be decided by who has the ball last (Remember 31-30 MNF?) 5) While KC defense is still a mess, the offense is back to clicking on all cylinders, putting up big points, and doing it only taking a few min off the clock. I don't think they will match their 10 yards/play from last week, but they won't need to cover the 48.5 with ease. 6) People overlook that Alex Smith is still playing GREAT this year, with a 107 qb rating. That's second to only TOM BRADY, and well ahead of the likes of CARSON WENTZ, DREW BREES, and RUSSELL WILSON. Need I say more? View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	December 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 11, RUN WITH ME in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller: and LT Tyron smith OUT Dallas still got 3-4 top lineman. Tyron is just one man View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	November 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to THE CONVICT week 11, RUN WITH ME in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers: Philadelphia isn't undefeated I did state that incorrectly, apologies. I meant their winning streak cannot last forever. 7 game win streak is impressive, but just as people are ready to crown them NFC champs on their way to the superbowl is when that streak will end. And this game is the perfect spot to end it. Dallas is still a great team, even with the injuries, and 5pts at home is way too much. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	November 18, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic THE CONVICT week 11, RUN WITH ME in NFL Betting 2-0 for the season. Yes I know small sample, who cares. But I'm undefeated and all of my picks are CONVICTion plays. I only post when I have a real play, and I attach a list of WHY. Let's be honest, any guys posting more than 2-3 picks a week are just guessing. My last play with 3 weeks ago...until now. Had NE-3.5 against ATL, I predicted this will be the shortest number NE lays at home all year. https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102541665/superbowl-rematch-play Had KC-7 against DEN, ppl are finally NOW coming around to the fact that DEN is not good. https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102550280/early-play-on-mnf This one may surprise you: Take DALLAS +5 against the soaring Eagles. This one is simple: no one can go undefeated forever, and this is the week PHIL meets their match. It is a heated NFC East game, so throw all the records, injuries, and MVP garbage talk out the window. This will be a slugfest on both offense and defense, and the 5pts at home will be more than enough. That is all, BOL View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	12	November 17, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to early play on MNF in NFL Betting KC big tonight. Just like Patriots-3.5 vs Falcons last week, don't overthink this one. One of the best teams in the league in a must-win spot with huge home field against a dysfunctional offense. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	7	October 30, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic early play on MNF in NFL Betting Relative newcomer here, only posted 1 play so far . But it worked, so let's try again! new england-3.5 vs atlanta play last week https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102541665 MNF play: KC-7 (-115) Reasoning: 1) KC off 2 straight losses, and now have a must-win in a division game. They won't overlook Denver even though they have struggled lately. 2) KC offense still firing on all cylinders, see no reason they can't put up points on Denver. KC defense not great, but not really worried about them vs a stagnant and injured Denver offense. 3) Trevor Simien 4) KC extra rest off a Thurs night game (that they really should have won.) Andy Reid is great off of extra rest. Feel free to fade or follow, but would love to hear arguments for/against. And I'm not going to post 5 plays every week, trying to limit to conviction plays only. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	7	October 27, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl rematch play in NFL Betting I get no props for this call?? I didn't see anyone refute my points View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	10	October 22, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl rematch play in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by anthonyline: My question to u is NE is good at home this year ? Gl Obviously they haven't been great ATS at home, or overall. But that's irrelevant, unless you think something has changed with their home field adv. I see no reason that it would be different. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	10	October 20, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl rematch play in NFL Betting Sorry to reply to own post so much, but just found this out so had to post: Brady is 65% ATS in his career when laying less than 7pts. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	10	October 20, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl rematch play in NFL Betting Also, New England's defense has been suspect, but you gotta believe Belichick will make the necessary adjustments. That's what he's done his whole career. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	10	October 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Superbowl rematch play in NFL Betting All I see are posts calling Atlanta easy money. There is no such thing as easy money in sports. I see big value in the other side: New England -3.5 (5 units) Reasons: 1) New England enjoys the best home field advantage in the league. the line should really be 6-7 with home field. 2) Everyone knows that Atlanta have had revenge on their mind since last year, so it's a good time to fade that obvious sentiment. 3) Atlanta lost 2 games very bad teams, Miami and Buffalo. At some point these losses mean something, you can't just keep writing them off as flukes. The team is just not the same this year without Shanahan, and Matt Ryan has clearly peaked and will never match his amazing performance last year. 4) Falcons are dancing on thin ice. If the Falcons fall behind, their spirits will be crushed b/c they expect to come in and score at will, like in Superbowl. If Falcons build big lead, the first score where Patriots start catching up they will start getting nervous and play suboptimally. This is the absolute cheapest you will get the Patriots at home this year. Don't overthink it. View Post \| View Thread	jokerbee	10	October 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread

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