early play on MNF

Question

Relative newcomer here, only posted 1 play so far . But it worked, so let's try again!

new england-3.5 vs atlanta play last week

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102541665

MNF play:
KC-7 (-115)

Reasoning:

1) KC off 2 straight losses, and now have a must-win in a division game. They won't overlook Denver even though they have struggled lately.

2) KC offense still firing on all cylinders, see no reason they can't put up points on Denver. KC defense not great, but not really worried about them vs a stagnant and injured Denver offense.

3) Trevor Simien

4) KC extra rest off a Thurs night game (that they really should have won.) Andy Reid is great off of extra rest.

Feel free to fade or follow, but would love to hear arguments for/against. And I'm not going to post 5 plays every week, trying to limit to conviction plays only.

jokerbee · Answer

Relative newcomer here, only posted 1 play so far . But it worked, so let's try again!

new england-3.5 vs atlanta play last week

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102541665

MNF play:
KC-7 (-115)

Reasoning:

1) KC off 2 straight losses, and now have a must-win in a division game. They won't overlook Denver even though they have struggled lately.

2) KC offense still firing on all cylinders, see no reason they can't put up points on Denver. KC defense not great, but not really worried about them vs a stagnant and injured Denver offense.

3) Trevor Simien

4) KC extra rest off a Thurs night game (that they really should have won.) Andy Reid is great off of extra rest.

Feel free to fade or follow, but would love to hear arguments for/against. And I'm not going to post 5 plays every week, trying to limit to conviction plays only.

jasondemz · Answer

Andy Reid Trouble SpotAfter jumping out to a league-best 5-0 record, the Chiefs have dropped two straight to the Steelers (19-13) and Raiders (31-30). The team has lost three games in a row just three times since Reid took over head coaching duties in 2013. It may be in danger of making it a fourth, despite laying 7.5 points to the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Including his long tenure with the Eagles, Reid is 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS at home against division opponents when on a losing streak of one or two games. Five times his teams have kicked off as 4-point chalk or more, and they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS overall.Furthermore:Teams going scoreless in Week 7 are 10-3 ATS in Week 8. For an angle with a little more meat on the bone, consider this: road teams coming off zero points vs. a defense that allowed 10 or more the previous week are 40-18 ATS since 1990. The trend proves even stronger in the second half of the season, going 27-9 from Week 8 on. The Broncos (7.5) and the Colts (10.5) fall under this umbrella this week at the Chiefs and Bengals, respectively.

jokerbee · Answer

KC big tonight.   Just like Patriots-3.5 vs Falcons last week, don't overthink this one.   One of the best teams in the league in a must-win spot with huge home field against a dysfunctional offense.

Gioia1 · Answer

It's more of a must win for Denver, they will keep it closeGood Luck with your pick

Matt3174 · Answer

I only bet games by fading but I have to lay off this one. Alex Smith some freaking way is still underrated!! I agree with everything you say too much to fade KC. GL

early play on MNF

Hot Forum Topics