Superbowl rematch play

Question

All I see are posts calling Atlanta easy money. There is no such thing as easy money in sports. I see big value in the other side:

New England -3.5 (5 units)

Reasons:

1) New England enjoys the best home field advantage in the league. the line should really be 6-7 with home field.

2) Everyone knows that Atlanta have had revenge on their mind since last year, so it's a good time to fade that obvious sentiment.

3) Atlanta lost 2 games very bad teams, Miami and Buffalo. At some point these losses mean something, you can't just keep writing them off as flukes. The team is just not the same this year without Shanahan, and Matt Ryan has clearly peaked and will never match his amazing performance last year.

4) Falcons are dancing on thin ice. If the Falcons fall behind, their spirits will be crushed b/c they expect to come in and score at will, like in Superbowl. If Falcons build big lead, the first score where Patriots start catching up they will start getting nervous and play suboptimally.

This is the absolute cheapest you will get the Patriots at home this year. Don't overthink it.

jokerbee · Answer

All I see are posts calling Atlanta easy money. There is no such thing as easy money in sports. I see big value in the other side:

New England -3.5 (5 units)

Reasons:

1) New England enjoys the best home field advantage in the league. the line should really be 6-7 with home field.

2) Everyone knows that Atlanta have had revenge on their mind since last year, so it's a good time to fade that obvious sentiment.

3) Atlanta lost 2 games very bad teams, Miami and Buffalo. At some point these losses mean something, you can't just keep writing them off as flukes. The team is just not the same this year without Shanahan, and Matt Ryan has clearly peaked and will never match his amazing performance last year.

4) Falcons are dancing on thin ice. If the Falcons fall behind, their spirits will be crushed b/c they expect to come in and score at will, like in Superbowl. If Falcons build big lead, the first score where Patriots start catching up they will start getting nervous and play suboptimally.

This is the absolute cheapest you will get the Patriots at home this year. Don't overthink it.

jokerbee · Answer

Also, New England's defense has been suspect, but you gotta believe Belichick will make the necessary adjustments.   That's what he's done his whole career.

jokerbee · Answer

Sorry to reply to own post so much, but just found this out so had to post:   Brady is 65% ATS in his career when laying less than 7pts.

anthonyline · Answer

My question to u is NE is good at home this year ? Gl

jokerbee · Answer

Obviously they haven't been great ATS at home, or overall.   But that's irrelevant, unless you think something has changed with their home field adv.  I see no reason that it would be different.

CoreyPaus · Answer

Do you mean Seahawks, not Panthers?

diondimucci · Answer

Wire to wire blowout for atlanta.  Wrong team favored this game

Jamesid · Answer

Good luck with this did you check the injuries to the Patriots already horrible defense ?

lordbettington · Answer

I'm on pats as well.Both teams are mediocre, but the game is in Foxboro on grass outdoor, big adv. for pats.  The playoff revenge angle has failed 0-4 this year, pats over Texans falcons over packers, packers over cowboys steelers over chiefs.You can't get revenge for a sb loss like that in regular season,   I believe that comeback has been in the falcons head and all it will take is a little adversity and this one could turn ugly.Ryan really misses shanahan.Both of these teams will miss the playoffs.

jokerbee · Answer

I get no props for this call??  I didn't see anyone refute my points

Superbowl rematch play

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