garbagetime

YTD: 7-4

You know, I bothered breaking down my 17 years of numbers, just so I could skip two winners this year. That Raiders game basically came down to the 2-yard touchdown drive the Titans gifted to them. Oh, well. 

This week:

Cleveland -2.5 (-115)

They're bad, but they're guaranteed one win this week:

SEA -1
PIT -6.5
DET 2.5
KC -2.5
TB -3.5

YTD: 8-17 (favorites 3-10, dogs 5-7)

Rare that I disagree with you, but I only like the Ravens at +7.5 at home. Ordinarily I'd be inclined to back the Bengals getting 14.5, but Flacco is a downgrade from Browning and should have a hard time fending off the Packers' pass rush.

The Raiders would have been a bounceback play for me, but they're a home favorite. Home favorites coming off a 4+ TD road loss in which they've scored fewer than 10 points are 8-21 ATS in the 17 years I've been tracking them. Those -3 to -4 are 1-10 ATS. (The ones favored by a TD or more are 4-3 ATS.)

Best of luck whatever happens.

I am not playing anything here, as I said.

Before anyone asks, other home favorites in this set have gone 61-60. This is not where the money resides.

YTD: 6-4

There are no plays this week. However, there's one you could fade if you're really, really nervy. Las Vegas -5 would ordinarily have been a play before I spent an excruciating amount of time breaking down 20 years of numbers and separating them situationally. Turns out home favorites among the class of teams that were blown out by 4+ touchdowns last week *and* scored single digits have gone 8-21 ATS the following week. Week 17 is the only bright spot: 3-1. Before that, 5-20.

Taking Tennessee +5 on the road is too much for me. Pass.

It takes a certain kind of brilliance to lose all three legs of a 7-point teaser.

The Westgate top five finished 3-2 today...the three I faded were the three winners. lol

7-point teaser of Westgate top five picks (+120):

Bills -1

LV +14.5

PHI +3

Carolina +1

YTD: 5-15 (dogs 3-6, favorites 2-9)

Uh, not for me.

Tennessee +8

Cincinnati +10.5

@jowchoo

 Yes, I agree, but all of that is baked into the line. Regression is sort of baked into the line, too, but it's overwhelmed by the vast majority of bettors who think that what goes up doesn't come down.

@jowchoo

 It's something that's baked into the line, and it can't be predicted. So, no.

Good luck, claw

YTD 4-3

Haven't taken anything yet, but three teams qualify this week: Cincinnati, Tennessee and Carolina.

Carolina has bounced between -1 and +1.5...they're a play as a home dog, but I'm not sure I'd taken them if the market saw them as a favorite, even as a narrow one.

Tennessee opened +9.5, and I thought it might move to +10, but they're now +7.5 at Arizona.

Bengals opened at +9.5, now they're +10.5.

This is the thing I don't get about the use of anchors. You can have a great week in terms of the number of plays that win and lose a bunch of money if the anchors don't come through. By my count this was anchors 1-2, but satellites 22-8, so 70 percent winners, but you went 0-30 and 0-30 on the two anchors that lost. I think you said last year that you just have to choose anchors better when you had the rare losing week, but I'm still not certain the better strategy isn't to pair (or even triple) plays without anchors.

For sure, they are both frauds.

Added two plays.

Green Bay -6.5, tailing theclaw, but I was already inclined to believe that GB can get well against that defense.

Arizona +2 tonight. Is Seattle's defense for real? They've played the Niners, Steelers and Saints. Will Darnold play like playoff Darnold?