garbagetime

I like the Saints this week, but I really feel that Arizona's play last week, while admittedly against a bad team, makes them a no play for me. Seattle is due a regression, but it seems to me so is Arizona...even granting that division games tend to be closer.

Westgate top-five picks surprised me.

DAL 269 -2.5
IND 263 -3
DET 242 -9
HOU 217 -1.5
SF 214 -2.5

Just fyi, top five this season are 17-23 (favorites 12-11, dogs 5-12)

Top consensus teams at this point are Chargers (1) and Lions (2), Rams are #5. I regularly fade top-five consensus picks from the Westgate competition, they have years of poor results, so I'll wait to see whether these three are listed in the Westgate top five also, but Vikings, Saints and Titans are likely to produce closer games than expected.

What is the time frame for this query?

YTD: 10-4

This week: Washington +3.5 v Seattle

The one instructive part of this week is that I waited, waited, waited on Miami to get a better line, didn't pull the trigger at the right time, was kind of sweating that half point. Same with Tampa, went through all of these machinations, and in the end neither point spread mattered, at all.

Maybe I'm just saying that because it's easy to be cavalier when you've gone 4-0.

YTD: 10-4

I didn't play two of the wins, but with some good results elsewhere I'm at about +5 units on the season. Still awaiting the first twin peaks game, I live for those.

Week 9 won't have any plays unless Washington gets blown out tonight. The Vikings came close, but I'm happy not to have to take +9.5 at Detroit. 

2-0 so far, so I've bought back a little of my Tampa bet. A cover of -3.5 will be +1.2 units, a loss will be -1.5 units.

Should have jumped on that +7.5 with Miami, I took them +7 this morning, and it's +6.5 now. That's how much people dislike Cousins.

I cashed out my TB bet and then doubled up on TB -3.5. Decided it was worth paying the juice to gain that point across the four.

I've also taken GB +3, something I feel better about now that I see that Pittsburgh is a top five Westgate pick. The Westgate top five are 15-20 on the season, and that's after going 10-5 the past three weeks. It is great to fade the consensus in the NFL. The other four top picks this week are Chi +6.5 (I've taken Bal -2.5), Houston, NE and Dallas.

Miami has gone to +7.5, but I'm still going to wait.

TB is now -3.5, and I'm seriously considering doubling this bet at -3.5 and -4.5. I really think this is one of those times where the market is reacting to only Tampa's team news, which is admittedly bad (Godwin and Irving confirmed out, as well as Evans), while ignoring the Saints' (they are bad, period). 

Good luck this week, Claw.

YTD: 8-4

This week:

Tampa Bay -4.5 @ New Orleans. Line dropped from -5.5. Yeah, Mike Evans is out. Yeah, Rattler remains in.

Waiting on a second possible game: Miami +7 @ Atlanta. There's a decent chance this line will get up above a TD.

YTD: 7-4

You know, I bothered breaking down my 17 years of numbers, just so I could skip two winners this year. That Raiders game basically came down to the 2-yard touchdown drive the Titans gifted to them. Oh, well. 

This week:

Cleveland -2.5 (-115)

They're bad, but they're guaranteed one win this week:

SEA -1
PIT -6.5
DET 2.5
KC -2.5
TB -3.5

YTD: 8-17 (favorites 3-10, dogs 5-7)

Rare that I disagree with you, but I only like the Ravens at +7.5 at home. Ordinarily I'd be inclined to back the Bengals getting 14.5, but Flacco is a downgrade from Browning and should have a hard time fending off the Packers' pass rush.

The Raiders would have been a bounceback play for me, but they're a home favorite. Home favorites coming off a 4+ TD road loss in which they've scored fewer than 10 points are 8-21 ATS in the 17 years I've been tracking them. Those -3 to -4 are 1-10 ATS. (The ones favored by a TD or more are 4-3 ATS.)

Best of luck whatever happens.

I am not playing anything here, as I said.

Before anyone asks, other home favorites in this set have gone 61-60. This is not where the money resides.

YTD: 6-4

There are no plays this week. However, there's one you could fade if you're really, really nervy. Las Vegas -5 would ordinarily have been a play before I spent an excruciating amount of time breaking down 20 years of numbers and separating them situationally. Turns out home favorites among the class of teams that were blown out by 4+ touchdowns last week *and* scored single digits have gone 8-21 ATS the following week. Week 17 is the only bright spot: 3-1. Before that, 5-20.

Taking Tennessee +5 on the road is too much for me. Pass.

It takes a certain kind of brilliance to lose all three legs of a 7-point teaser.

The Westgate top five finished 3-2 today...the three I faded were the three winners. lol

7-point teaser of Westgate top five picks (+120):

Bills -1

LV +14.5

PHI +3