garbagetime

Last week: 1-0 YTD: 13-9

This week:

Cleveland +10.5 (v Buff)

NY Jets +4.5 (@ NO)

There's a third game that fits the parameters that I will not take: Las Vegas +14 @ Houston. Maybe if it got to +17.5 and then the Texans roster got the measles an hour later.

I predicted you would win with Indy, and you did. Pretty typical that the one pick that I didn’t like would be the only one to win.

Colts are 13.5 right now, and it occurs to me that Seattle are relatively close to a "twin peaks" fade. It's supposed to come into play when a team is off consecutive games of scoring 30 and giving up fewer than 10. Seahawks beat Minnesota 26-0 and Atlanta 37-9 the last two. When it's a pure twin peaks angle, the ATS record is something like 75% if not a divisional matchup. Don't know what happens when you water down the requirements.

I took Washington 2.5 (-105). 

Yes, because odds reflect public attitudes, not "who is good" or "who is better, and by how much." The public will support KC for a year after they're not that good.

Posted this in its own thread, but worth seeing the Westgate top 5 picks. They're off their best week last time (4-1), but they're still underwater, 31-38 (favorites 21-22, dogs 10-16). They like two dogs this week, one of them Miami (vs Pitt).

BUF 232  -1
CAR 215  -2.5
DET 192   6
GB 180   -1
MIA 179   3.5

By the way, KC was #6 with 176 picks, Denver #7 with 170.

BUF 232  -1
CAR 215  -2.5
DET 192   6
GB 180   -1
MIA 179   3.5

Top 5 went 4-1 last week, best of the season. YTD, however, they're 31-38. Favorites 21-22, dogs 10-16

The one that you're certain to win is the Colts, because it's the only one I can't imagine taking. The Colts are so done, and Seattle can't possibly be looking ahead here. Seattle's D can contain the Colts, and play so much better at home anyway. Just can't imagine Rivers at 44 and away for as long as he has been, will be up to NFL speed.

Good luck, claw

Well, teams do rest their starters, but the backups definitely have something to play for. Although, you know, Broncos 38, Chiefs 0 in week 18 last year.

YTD 12-9

Commanders +2.5 (at NY Giants) are theoretically a play. The look-ahead line was -2.5, and Zach Ertz's season-ending injury is only part of the reason. I don't think the dropoff to Mariota justifies that kind of swing.

I'm going to wait on this one. As I was crunching my numbers, I was really struck by something we all know but don't give a lot of thought to...how slight the margin is between winning and losing when you bet the NFL. A 12-9 record is 57%; I've gone 10-6 this year with this strategy (62%). I was initially inclined to not play Washington here because the situation in my database is really marginal. Teams in their situation, as dogs on the road after getting waxed on the road, are around .500, although pretty good in December. When you focus closer (only dogs below a field goal, for example), you end up with records like 6-5. A 6-5 record is 54.5%! It's kind of nuts.

Do teams pack it in? Tank? I think it's obvious they don't. Professional athletes always have something to play for. You're talking about a matchup here where both teams' seasons went south pretty quickly. Giants swept their preseason games in huge fashion and then dropped straight into the toilet. Commanders have now lost 8 straight. It's not like this particular loss hurts more for a team that went to the NFC championship game last year. 

YTD 12-9 after one of the easiest wins you or I will ever see.

Next week, Commanders are theoretically a play. However, I won't play them as an away favorite, and the look-ahead was -2.5 at the Giants.

@theclaw

 I got -1 this morning, but it's -2.5 now. As soon as Westgate picks were released I jumped.

GB   210    -6.5
JAX  208    1.5
WAS 195    2
LAR  193    -8
HOU 190   3.5

YTD the top five picks are 27-37. Faves 19-22, dogs 8-15

Jags and Texans both on the list, but watch out Packers.

Vikings ML -105

Seeing Washington on the Westgate list cinched it for me. Hopefully JJ can stop sucking.

GB   210    -6.5
JAX  208    1.5
WAS 195    2
LAR  193    -8
HOU 190   3.5

YTD the top five picks are 27-37. Faves 19-22, dogs 8-15

I usually look at oddsshark but they're relatively close in the odds you see. The rule of thumb has been to oppose teams getting 80% or more on the spread. This week that's Denver and Seattle. I always found it made sense to avoid those teams when in a confidence pool, because public confidence is the kiss of death.

Colts are -1, -1.5 and -2 at my three books.

Be well, claw

Minnesota is now -1, which would not be a play. I'm kind of surprised by the 3-point move in their direction.