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Congratulations. |
Irisheric777 | 29 |
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Many congratulations for that excellent hit. |
Winning562 | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Quote Originally Posted by Lbob53143: Thats a lot of words for no pick. Not confident huh? Probably best you dont bet then. I'm very confident. Jackson 24-2 s/u vs NFC, 4-0 vs nfc north. 7-2 on MNF with like 18 TDs 0 INTs 124 qbr. I will be pounding Ravens ML -210 and hopefully lions score first and I can get a good line under -210. I know you like 90% bet underdogs only, but why handicap yourself like that? It already hard to win, and now you eliminate 50% of potential plays because they arnt underdogs. Pretty square if you ask me. Nothing wrong with discussing the game especially with a team im very passionate about , this info may be pertinent to you as far as how the game may play out. If you are very confident then why not take the Ravens -4.5 ? I've made a killing betting underdogs and have done so for quite a long while. Might as well stick with what works for you. If you don't like DET, there is no harm with passing on the game and just rooting for your favorite team. Good luck tonight. |
Digitalkarma | 39 |
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replied to
In the NFL, underdogs have an outright win percentage of roughly 33% based on data since the 2003 season
in NFL Betting @unplucked_gem This query is pretty simple: season > 2002 and D SU: 1952-3975-15 (-5.3,32.9%) ATS: 2931-2848-163 (-0.2,50.7%) Obviously the vigorish would burn up your bankroll taking every dog and just covering 50.7% of the games. |
Guy_2U | 10 |
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Congratulations. |
LB_Dirtbags | 30 |
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Good luck. |
EastsideBangers | 86 |
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@Digitalkarma You're welcome, DK. |
theclaw | 37 |
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Good luck from a dogbite. |
Saywaht | 8 |
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Good luck. |
jowchoo | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Tough two weeks Claw, thankfully you have kept your plays manageable. Haven't played an NFL season where the faves were ahead weeks 1 and 2. I'll have to look at last season for comparison since I didn't play that year but as far as back as 15 years betting NFL I don't recall this happening it's always the dog leading the week 10-6, 11-5 ats sometimes 9-7. this is new to me.. Better luck this week Claw Dogs ATS in weeks 1 and 2 by season: 2018 62.5% 2019 58.1 2020 51.6 2021 65.6 2022 54.8 2023 60.7 2024 54.8 2025 46.9 This season is an outlier, although 15-17 ATS is not that bad. |
theclaw | 37 |
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Congratulations. |
westlake888 | 7 |
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Sweet! |
Maxerevoume | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
I got this online ....... Dogs +6 or larger hit 60% ATS past 20 years. Saw this last year, not sure how those dogs did last year. The sweet spot seems to be +8 to +10..... That was over 70% I think 77% but I don't think it was past 20 years more like 10 to 15 years. I wrote that down but can't find it. This one I got this season. Teams that win by 17 pts or more you fade, teams that lose by 17 pts or more you back. That I got last year has a nice winning ATS record like 60 to 65 %. Personally I don't like fading teams off big wins or losses of only 1 game. But I am aware of this trend. That is bullshxt, and it is not even close. D and line > 5.7 and season > 2005 ATS: 1026-993-45 (-0.7,50.8%) That is slightly positive, but it would NOT cover the vigorish. |
theclaw | 20 |
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Good luck. |
theclaw | 20 |
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TC, will you start a thread for Week 2? The clock is ticking. |
theclaw | 175 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
1-0 ATS, won 1 unit Season--- 3-5, lost 2.6 units Packers laid a beatdown on Wash. But Wash did hang in and almost came back to get the cover. 404 yards to 250. 8.4 ave per pass to 3.9 , are u serious 3.9 per pass ? Packers won Passer Rating by 28 pts. PR II had Packers should of won by 17.4 pts. About the same for PR I. The 27-10 score before Wash made their final score was closer to the actual way the game was played. Keep riding this Packers team. NFL.com has Daniels stats vs GB as 200 PY/42 ATT = 4.76 YPPA. |
theclaw | 175 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: CLV outgained CIN 327-141 and covered the spread but still lost. I don't think that would be strong enough to qualify as a Top Three Surprise. Scoring only 16 points at home against a weak DEF is not that encouraging. PR II had Browns should of won by 1.38 pts. In other words a very close game .......... |
theclaw | 175 |
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Good stuff. Good luck. |
hoody | 27 |
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@spottie2935 You are certainly a better and more thorough handicapper than I am.
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spottie2935 | 28 |
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Nice hit. |
EastsideBangers | 27 |
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