DogbiteWilliams

Do you still like ARZ after that big road dog win vs. a DIV rival?  That big upset was preceded by 5 losses, so maybe ARZ could continue positive regression even off a huge effort.

Currently there is no ARZ-SEA line at Heritage, but Scores and Odds has SEA at only +6.5.  Congratulations on grabbing a great line; is +6.5 still worth a wager?

I have several queries that like NO and NONE that like CAR, so I am on board.

Good luck.

Thanks for posting that information even though I did not act on it.

It's still nice to know and it does support the fact that the general public usually loses.

I nabbed TEN +10/-112 for 1.5 units at Heritage.  Thanks for your agreement and congratulations.

I like TEN.

Good luck.

Here's a query tailored to the KC-BUF matchup.  Since KC is only a small Away Favorite, I chose to query with a relevant pointspread band to reflect the close relative strengths of the teams and avoid polluting my query results with big Away Favorites.

A and -4.2 < line < 3.2 and po:points < 7.5 and ppo:points < 7.5

SU:  19-23 (1.5,45.2%)

ATS:  18-24 (1.1,42.9%)

Away teams of -4 to +3 that held their previous two opponents to 7 points or less only cover 42.9% of their next games.  The average ATS margin is actually 1.1 points.

That only gives a slight edge to BUF; it's not strong enough for me to take action based on this query alone, but it does provide a bit of support for TC's pick.

Good luck everybody.

Good stuff.  Thanks for the time, effort and knowledge.

I like ATL.  I'd love to get the full 6 points.

Nice work, TC.  Congratulations.

Congratulations, stoidi.

Those losers got Clawed.

Building on Comment #28, teams that lay exactly 10 points are 1-1 ATS, so:

po:points = 0 and po:TY < 100 and line > -9.7

ATS:  20-6-1 (3.3,76.9%)

As long as you don't have to lay 10+ points, things look pretty rosy.  However, there has only been one single play since the 2017 season - so don't hold your breath.

This is another query that is fairly easy because the SDQL (Sports Data Query Language) is just what you'd guess:

po:points = 0 and po:TY < 100

ATS:  22-8-1 (2.8,73.3%)

Teams that shut out their Previous Opponents and held them to less than 100 Total Yards are 22-8-1 ATS in the next game.

While that looks pretty solid for KC, I usually prefer an average ATS edge of 3+points.  2.8 is pretty close, but the bigger problem is the huge point spread.  When "and line < -10.2" is added, the ATS falls to just 1-1 - a completely worthless sample size.

Good luck.

Congratulations.

He would be a marked improvement.

FTN Fantasy (formerly Football Outsiders - a superior name IMHO) has SEA rated #1 in Team Total DVOA.  DET and IND are tied at #2 and #3.  LAR at #4 and there is a sizeable drop to KC at #5.

https://ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/team-total-dvoa

Good luck.

Congratulations.

Good luck.

Good luck.