bookieassassin

@Mskeets

 Good man, but missing the point.....

SOME TEAMS - SIMPLY PLAY TO THE LEVEL OF THEIR OPPONENT

    * Ga Tech is one - Texas is another to a lesser degree.  See all the love for Duke a few weeks back?  Duke won the stats, but got their azz kicked...... again. On PAPER, Duke was better. 

As a coach, you can't expect MAX effort from your players every week (with rare exceptions - eg. Indiana).  On the average, it's about 4-5X/year maybe.  So, as a coach you pick your spots.  For Texas their talent is often enough, but like we saw in 2023 - I watched them struggle to block Rice for 2-3 quarters, later a life/death struggle with Wyoming - but then they kicked the crap out of Bama on the road.......

WHY does this happen?  Many coaches have problems motivating players for lessser opponents - some, like Kirby Smart, don't want to - they want MAX effort for the big games, just a W for minor ones.   

HERE - you expect them to play like they did vs Kentucky/Miss St.?  They damn sure might, but it makes little sense.

*side note - vs lesser D's (Bama/Mizzou/LSU) - Pavia has completed 59% / 6.4-att / 2 TD-2 INT.  In the passing game - he's a liability.

@Mskeets

Don't get tangled up in these silly narratives spewed out by barstool idiots.....

TEXAS SUX! ARCH WORST EVER! DIEGO FOR HEISMAN!....

You remember them struggling vs UTEP at home (big time) - but in Arch's first game they outgained Ohio State on the road (nation's best team), by over 100 yards, and later whipped OU (Arch was solid).  Both games their D totally shut down talented O's. So the conclusion is ..... they stand little chance vs VANDY?  How does that make sense?  

Back away - consider the BIG PICTURE.  Looks like to me, they tend to play to the level of their opponent.

    >> At home/ backs to the wall - a line that tells you Vandy is the better team.....

The play is Texas - or nothing, at the current line - Vandy should a 3'/4 point dog

Morton is hurt - and has had to leave 3 games, for the same injury.  Decent chance he has to leave here as well - leaving Wake reject Mitch Griffis to lead you to a victory, over a team you've beaten once in 13 years....

If you wait .....you should be able to get Texas ML, or even as a dog

Texas will be my top play - IF Arch is out   

Forgot .....

Recall you mentioned backing teams that FINISH strong. (I think)  

   >> really an underrated handicapping angle

LY - I read that one of the deciding factors in selecting a team for the play-offs, was how they finish the game.  Logic being it shows how much the team cares, how much they want to win.  'Nuther words ..... we don't want a team that QUITS when the going gets tough.  One of the few smart things I've heard from that bunch.  I still suffer from PTSD from that moment I heard one member say "we check our bias at the door"..... < bias is a function of our subconscious, you can't switch it on/off (really ignorant shiit)   

$  at CFBstats.com - you can check rushing/passing by quarter - at TeamRankings,  scoring by quarter/ possession time by quarter.  I like to just go thru the boxscores (look at similar spots 1st)

@JJWoods

 Better lately, but Aggs are much weaker on the road , - LSU backs to the wall / under BK.... at home, at nite .. .have won 19/20 su. 

I'll probably be on LSU at a juiced 3.

BOL this week buddy

Who's the better QB right NOW?

Manning or Michael Hawkins?

The winner will have to throw, run/ convert on 3rd down.  Hawkins might be a better passer? Texas is bottom in the country in pressure rate allowed too...

IT'S A TRAP - DON'T FALL FOR IT FFS!!! ..........

It's (like always) - a math problem tweaked/fine tuned by oddsmakers / wagering

Before the Mateer injury - OU would be a 3-4 pt favorite probably.  He is worth a full 7 points to the spread. So you subtract - then adjust for how the game will be bet.

      * IF the Horns played well/won vs Fla - the line would be 4 or so - they didn't - so it's 2'/3.  simple   

@maxwagers781

 FASCINATING

FFS MAN, HE'S LOST 7 OF HIS LAST 11 GAMES, AND IS ABOUT TO LOSE TO UTEP (PROBABLY). He basically LOST THE TEAM last year week 5/6 > ugly loss to Kenn St, and hasn't recovered yet. 

He's on his way to getting fired (if not for buyout probably) at the easiest school in America to win at. Liberty has more resources than anybody in CUSA, and plays nobody. So let's give him a shot at PENN STATE?

My Sandusky hire made more sense - he's a better coach ha.    

Hugh Freeze's players - his own guys, he's #110 SP+ - right there with Tulsa and Mizzou St 

@maxwagers781

 His 3y at Liberty - they're in basically a pick-em game at UTEP? .....he's run that program into the ground.

Sandusky on work release?

MAYBE

Here he is vs Make A Wish team.... 

https://youtube.com/shorts/C6HHBr7YFWk?si=cDBI9QL1yZcdR2N3

Coaches - IN THE HEAT OF BATTLE - do not make decisions based on the spread....

WITH THE GAME CLEARLY AT HAND - have guys like Kiffin, Spurrier, Franklin - ever tried to get over a number?  SURE.  

I knew what happened immediately (been there) - he couldn't communicate with the officials (about the EARLY WHISTLE), so told QB to just keep running - all the way out.  You idiots are saying he should have paused - thought "oh shiit, this will cause some guys to lose their bet, we better take a knee, and risk : punting > losing the game"  WHAT?

KEY:  if he gets another early whistle - THEY HAVE TO PUNT - GET IT?

Why is this this so hard to grasp? - Check with Indy news, it's all right there ffs. 

Indy was the wrong side from start to finish....

A bad beat is when CLEARLY have the right side, but still lose.

Reddit discussion is practically Algonquinian.....compared to the dumbassery we see around here..........

Cignetti is looking at a big $$ move to the SEC/ better B10 school - QB Mendoza at a huge NFL contract.  How is it possible you could think they are now shaving points? The amount of payoff would be about 50X the amount of the bet FFS.

There is only ONE reason - it's because Cignetti was afraid they would have to punt.  The officials blew the whistle way early in that last possession - he protested, but couldn't get a good explanation.  Everybody's yelling and screaming all around him - he wants more time on the clock, but can't get it. So he tells Mendoza - " F it - just run out of the F'in end zone - let's get TF outta here with a W".  Mendoza knows he can probably go down earlier - but he's afraid to defy his HC - don't blame him myself.  Mendoza even apologizes for screwing up wagers .......

@Last2thirst

Print out linesheets from Northcoast or Scores and Odds...

On Monday/Tuesday - use SP+ to set a line for the following weeks games. In games of interest, note lookahead/letdown spots. Steele lists many series trends too. Use Oddsharks/database to see if a given team plays well in this spot, and head to head series trends.  

 >> week 7 - check out Iowa @ Wisky - Iowa off a loss, then BYE / Wisky in a Michigan/Ohio State sammich. Does Iowa play well off a loss? (yes) Do they play well off a bye? (yes). Do they play well vs Wisky, esp. on the road? (yes).

 * what should the line be? Iowa -6 or so ... NOW you have a week+ to check out match-up issues - can Wisky stop the run - can Iowa D stop Wisky O - is Iowa QB healthy?

When the lines open - know what you will do, what number you want - WHEN CAN I GET THE NUMBER I WANT?

 eg. maybe I say I'll take Iowa at 7 or less, for one unit - if above, I'll pass (or play smaller up to 8'). Maybe 1.25 units at 5/6. Maybe Wisky somehow plays Michigan tough - you see a crazy 3 - know in advance - you'll bet 1.5 units. Note- often the number moves (to) SP+.  Meaning if SP+ says 6 - line opens at 8' - it's probably dropping. If 4, it's going up.

For supplemental PR  - Sagarin not bad this year - Collin Wilson at Action Network is excellent / free. The pirated newsletters at the RR are a great source - use the updated schedules (for spots). Brad Powers' numbers are probably the best next to SP+.

I'll typically do the next week's numbers while I watch MNF. Then add notes as the week progresses. Staying a few weeks ahead is really the only way if you're serious about this stuff...

HOKIES - opened at 3'

NCST beat Virginia and ECU - Hokies dominated them on the road - outgained by 100 yds / 5 sacks- 8 TFL, and averaged 7.4/rush..... WF underrated, but a weak road team, off OT loss / physical game to GT - winnable game on deck. Line should close at 7 or more.  Firing the coach often helps - it takes oddsmakers a bit to catch up. See Okie St/UCLA.

Please stop posting ......

You're making everybody look bad ha (like me)

BOL today buddy ........

  >> playing dogs ML / live plays is the way this week, and probably next (maybe every week really)

Like those, looks like a tough week to handicap .......BOL this week man ...........