Cupcaking

eshady stated that the system breaks once one side has lots of missing players. USF had a ton of injuries + I think a lot of people underestimated how big of an impact not having Bynum playing + missing coaches effected them.

The coaching decisions and play calling was really shakey all game. 

gotcha, so today the system says USF? 

eshady also said that if a side has more than five injuries or opt outs to important pieces of the team then it’s a no play. 

USF - starting QB out, HC, O line coach, OC are out. There are other injuries as well, but not sure of their importance.

@eshady29

good to know..

thanks! 

@eshady29

Tomorrow USF vs Old Dominion

USF 1.27

Old Dominion 1.17

USF - Starting QB sitting out. Head coach and OC not there.

Old Dominion - Starting QB sitting.

both sides have inexperienced backup QBs. 

question, you would still go with the team with higher NPD or does this game have too many variables that you would sit it out? 

This is really anyone’s game.

both teams trying to give it away lol 

Jax state’s entire offense is predicated on being able to run it down the opposing teams throat. Without that, they are screwed. 

@Brewmeister

 Yeah, I know.

sorry, he hasn’t been in the game yet. 

Cam Cook is a late scratch? He hasn’t taken a snap yet.

Over on the service bowl? 

not arguing, I’m wondering what your logic is because this game is always a slow grinding slugfest. 

it’s gone under 10 out of the last 11.

Seems like a 50/50 split amongst Tulane and N.Texas bets

Kennesaw is the better squad. But, they lost their earlier matchup due to four turnovers. Kennesaw only lost by 9 with those four turnovers.

If KS can protect the ball. They should win and cover 

He went on quite a run during 23-24 season. His 24-25 was so bad. 

I don’t think he’s a bad capper. He based his picks on advanced metrics and used the NFL’s paid film service, which lets you watch every player on every play across all coverages. His process was extremely thorough. Like with any form of capping, variance and luck play a role, and the 2024–25 season simply didn’t break his way.

I’m speculating here, but it seems his system didn’t factor in situational “good spots” for teams, likely because that kind of context introduces variance that can’t easily be quantified. I’m guessing this because there were several games last season that were clear spot bets, yet he sided the other way because the opposing teams held advantages in most key metrics.

He is on X/Twitter

He still gives soccer selections, his original bread and butter.

He didn’t say, but it sounds like his NFL season last year kind of soured him on betting this league. 

Kincaid and Coleman out.

Shakir back.

Buffalo with less receiving targets and a very good Texans defensive group that can get pressures without blitzing meaning more players to drop back. Very good at stopping the run.

Texans are also much better at home. 

to answer your question, I have no answers. lol 

This should be a no bet, Mac team laying 33points? 

Really really really bad football team trying to cover 33 points? 

Yeah, I agree here. 

To add, Cal always loses after a big win. But, like Scottie said I just don’t trust them to exploit Cal. This is a really bad football team. 

Just to add to the mix, this is a big rivalry game. Trends don’t really matter much. For me personally it’s hard to bet against the better QB and better offense of Cal’s. Cal also has the best receiver in the game in De Jesus. I think the defenses are a wash. 

@spottie2935

 Traveling?

Cal is 25 miles or less from Stanford. 

I’ve watched every Cal game this year and probably half of Stanford games.

The key is beating Cal is being able to rush on them. Stanford’s rush game is not really good. If Stanford has to put it in the air they are pretty much playing into Cal’s strength. Wilcox was a corner in his playing days so he always has a competent secondary group.

I don’t have a lean yet, but giving you some perspective on the matchup. Look back at all of Cal’s wins and losses. Cal wins when they can stop the run. Cal loses when they can’t. I haven’t seen anything from Stanford that tells me they can run. Stanford put up 37 rushing yards on SJ state, one of the worst defenses in all levels. 

@shadowmagic808

To be fair to yourself..

Raiders covered previous two against much better teams than Dallas.

I’m a Raiders fan, so I watch them a lot and I don’t trust them worth shit.