Week 13 Lines Discussion

Things are getting tough. Mid season was amazing with tons of opportunities. Only had 4 plays last week and went 2-2. Would've been a winning week if I played all the games I wrote up, but what ya gonna do. 

UNC +6.5 and ml +195 - I have already played this. Duke is now 5-5 and they have to be pretty dejected considering what was expected of them this year. They just got beat soundly by Virginia and now have to play in state rival UNC on the road. UNC on the other hand has been playing as the season has gone on. They aren't quitting and Bellichick has a way of making games ugly to give his team a chance. 

COL +7.5 and ml +250 - I have already played this. Arizona State is just not very impressive and this is Colorados last home game where they always a tough out. They are coming off a blowout loss as well. Im expecting a max effort here to finish their last home game with a win. 

CIN +110 and Alt Line - I have not played this yet. I stayed off Cincy last week thanks to Spotties advice. Now we are catching BYU at home who is off a monster win, and Cincy off a loss. Waiting on this one to see if we can get a better number and will be playing alt line when available. 

STAN +125 - I have not played this yet. This one is more of just a gut feeling. This line feels weird and weird ugly games tend to happen in Stanford. Both teams are off bye.

Agree with all except Colorado…The Buffs are a dumpster fire, and ASU is well coached…

MIZZOU!!!!

All your other plays I fully support and expect to ride with you and cash tickets.  

The only one I’m not on board with is Duke/UNC.  

Duke QB is the best they have faced this season as far as production.  I could list the stats on TD’s vs Ints from this season UNC’s past opponents.  

Duke is 5/5 I believe and still needs a win to get 6 wins for a bowl game. Duke has so many games where they are dominate on offense.  That means to be they push the ball and protect their defense by their offensive support and above average out put.  UNC has not faced a high output team since TCU week one. 

All the rest of UNC previous opponents excluding TCU do not have 20 passing TD!s. Add to that Duke only has 4 ints on the season. Only Vlems was close with 6 ints and UCF only has 9 but UCF only has 7 passing TDS so they are omitted. 

On offense Duke doesn’t give games away they score points and that pressures UNC to keep pace.  UNC has kept teams under control offensively most of the season.  I don’t think this will be the case.  +7 is possible but I don’t see A UNC win. 

Duke is off back to back favorite losses and I don’t see a 3rd failure. 

I know you said you bet it but at least I made you aware of my thoughts.  

As always best wishes this week.  

Julian Lewis might provide a much needed offensive spark. Also I’m not sold on the ASU QB Sims but the Buff D is putrid.  The bet is over with a lean to the dog. ASU is not 2024 ASU and -7 on the road with a back up Qb that has had a sketchy past isn’t a good bet.  The good news for ASU is their elite coaching as they had a real solid game plan last week for Jeff Sims last week.  

Last week, Lewis in his first start was on the road with a new offensive play caller.  At home this week they should be more in sync.  A lot of questions on the game and I think it’s a bit unclear in some aspects.  I think the buffs hang close in what looks to be a wild game. 

@spottie2935

 Thanks Spottie appreciate your thoughts. I may have to look into this UNC game a little more. 

What are you thoughts on Cincy and Stanford? 

Also Arkansas and Kentucky caught my eye. They both opened at 10.5 and both down to 9.5. I think Arkansas might be the better play of the 2 if any

I like Arkansas lines currently as the later weeks have hit.  They were only +4 or 5 at home to Notre in the early season.  Their early season lines and a defense that isn’t great had them in bad situations early. 

Texas last week was 10 points against Georgia.  Omit that game.  The previous 2 weeks they scored over 34 vs Candy and were 38-38 tied in regulation vs Ms.St before a TD in it to make it 45.  

with all the Texas dysfunction this season they have shown more ability to expose weak defenses.  Arkansas can be exploited.  Best play us over but 57 is a tall climb because the higher totals this season have not been lined over 70 points.  They have changed the rules so the totals have not been lined over 80 like a few seasons back.  

Arkansas is 2-0 ats this season when getting 7+ points

no real solid play here but lean dog and over.  Best lines to be had in game. 

Like I said about Cincy last week they are not elite and should not have been in the top 25.  As much as I want to fade BYU as I think they are being highly evaluated the stamp on Cincy is still looming on Cincy because they were ranked.  It’s still making an impact on their lines. I’ll pass on this as both these teams the floor will drop ou.  If I had to make a play I’d take Cincy off 2 bad games but those bad games could continue against a BYU that just  plays football the right way. 

pass 

@spottie2935

 Illinois, Tulane, GA Tech all games the Duke offense gave away with turnovers and bad special teams.  That said, I do like Duke cuz if they do take care of the ball they should take this crappy UNC team to the woodchipper.  

I’ve watched every Cal game this year and probably half of Stanford games.

The key is beating Cal is being able to rush on them. Stanford’s rush game is not really good. If Stanford has to put it in the air they are pretty much playing into Cal’s strength. Wilcox was a corner in his playing days so he always has a competent secondary group.

I don’t have a lean yet, but giving you some perspective on the matchup. Look back at all of Cal’s wins and losses. Cal wins when they can stop the run. Cal loses when they can’t. I haven’t seen anything from Stanford that tells me they can run. Stanford put up 37 rushing yards on SJ state, one of the worst defenses in all levels. 

Stanford/Cal

absolutely the right play is only on Stanford.  That being said it’s not one of the greatest plays in my eyes this week.  It’s a bad team with a low line.  They have to win and to be comfortable I like this team to have a 10 point lead at some point.  

They did have that 10 point lead vs FSU in a home dog game but that line was +17 much better line for a cushion.  Stanford was also +14 vs Boston College.  I much prefer those type of games and lines when getting on a bad team.  I just don’t trust them to win when the line cushion isn’t present.  

I know I know cal is off a huge dog win and traveling and all the good quality stuff that makes a good bet but this Stanford team can blow all these intangibles away and lose.  

t:team=STAN and H and 6>line>-10 and season>2022

the last 3 seasons Stanford has only been line at home between-10 and +6 in those games they are 1-2 SU 1-1 as favorites.  

Stanford is a bad team with a low line playing a bad team off a big win.  Cal is in a terrible situation but is Stanford good enough to take advantage with very small line cushion.  
pass for me. 

@Skymasters0n

 Good points I don’t like Duke a favorite aspect and their history of winning is poor but this is the best QB they have had in a long time.  I won’t lay-7 but if Carolina gets a lead and I get a decent price on Fuke to win to gain their bowl eligibility,  I’ll be betting Duke to win because they gave the ability to mount a comeback. It’s about lines and opportunities. -7 isn’t enticing me to bet. I do expect some sort of Duke win though. 

Good break down and support of my thoughts as well. Stan only +3, I don’t like it.  What I do like is Cal getting a lead and possibly blowing it.  I’ll get on a big Stanford line for a cushion.  Not +3. 

Tonight I like UMass just because of the ridiculous line.  In game one this season they were +0 to Temple.  -34 and Ohio only happens vs FCS schools and Ohio is terrible ATS in those big lined games vs those FCS schools.  I dislike betting big line games but history and lines are properly supported to do so tonight. 

Baylor as a dog vs a team that is not elite.  Baylor has been exploited this season by 2024’s success.  This is the first time I think they are playing an equal opponent with a better line than they have had this season. 

Michigan State with enough line cushion vs a low scoring Iowa  team. Iowa has covered every 6 point teaser vs FBS teams this season.  Now laying so many points off travel and they have played some really good teams lately.  -17 points is out of reach and I like these games because as I said any type of lead by the favorite increases the ingame line. 

Houston is 8-2 snd played some of the weakest teams in the division.  When they played TXTCH they got smoked. TCU should be the chalk here.  Make be a closer game than I like but I don’t value Houston as a favorite vs division opponent. Every game this season TCU has been a favorite or +2.5 and +3 were the only exceptions. Those opponents were BYU and ASU. 

San Jose+12.5, yes excellent season for the Aztecs but that has the at -12 this week.  They can play D but their offense isn’t that great.  Off a great season and win cs Boise I expect a lot of bettors trusting Sd St and they only win by 7 -10 should be a tight game all the way. 

Watch out for

Louisville 

Okla St 

Liberty

Maryland 

USC 

Kentucky

Florida Atlantic 

App St

Delaware

@spottie2935

 Yea TCU and Baylor look good this week I agree

Added:

TCU +100 - Go Horny Toads! Off 2 straight losses including a beat down at BYU, Houston isn't that good. Yea we rolling w the Froggies here

@spottie2935

 Traveling?

Cal is 25 miles or less from Stanford. 

Yeah, I agree here. 

To add, Cal always loses after a big win. But, like Scottie said I just don’t trust them to exploit Cal. This is a really bad football team. 

Just to add to the mix, this is a big rivalry game. Trends don’t really matter much. For me personally it’s hard to bet against the better QB and better offense of Cal’s. Cal also has the best receiver in the game in De Jesus. I think the defenses are a wash. 

Jesus how did you not go 3-1 after I detailed Aztecs

@spottie2935

 Juju is a local guy. He was special to watch in HS