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CONF CHAMP MAKE CHAMP GAME HEISMAN NATTY |
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@Indydog Yep .. contemplated in the pre-ssn thread absolute all systems go must win spot .. yeah I know very tough to play him .. we'll see .. but man o man if he can't just fire him on the spot .. yeah quite a few GOY's I wish I didn't lay points on .. but keep in mind we were up to -6.5's and -7's for this one pre-ssn and great start from Oregon vs Ho-Humm start haven't played anyone start for PSU pushed this back down.. Thought we might see Oregon w a ho hummer @NU but no dice there ... Anyway we're not in bad shape I think Oregon has put much of themselves on film already and PSU will be a much bigger mystery .. at least for now I still like the play but yeah woulda been worth it to wait .. good luck! |
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SEASON WINS - UPDATE .. Welp this always makes me feel better .. Lotta cool shades droppin already .. still lotta popcorn to eat .. but I got almost every popcorn play over 50% .. OSU seems like a 50/50 ball the crux of the play was we'd either be in this spot or in virtual lock mode if UT won week 1 .. UAB clearly has some upset potential but beating Akron was contemplated and they barely beat them and yeah still lean good guys there .. all others lean to win .. 2 look unlikely .. Kent state I think is in miracle territory with Ball St, UMass, Akron all looking terrible and otherwise have real upset potential .. think the floor is 9-8-1.. ceiling 14-4 .. maybeeee 15-3 with good luck .. |
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SEASON WINS - UPDATE BYU UNDER 8.5 -157 - |
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BRIDGE PLAYS SMALLER |
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POSTED WEEK 3 NEW MEXICO 100-1 (ESPN) https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football/bridge-plays-week-3-103971931/2 ESPN slow to update while NMEX was steamrolling over UCLA .. team looks tough n gritty and an under the radar HFA with Albuquerque elevation 5300 feet, frequently gets windy and cold late in the year and if they can catch fire might find ways to build on last year's best home attendance numbers since 2016 .. I wouldn't call it an easy schedule from here and potentially unfortunate spots w Super Rivalry vs NMSU at home then start the big 5 game MW slate @SJSU 6 day turnaround B2B roadies @Boise, Nevada, Utah St, @UNLV before a bye ... finish off vs Colo St, @AF, SDSU .. Very tough spot for the Aztecs but overall its a very tough schedule .. nonetheless we're as of now still searching for who will finish #2 is in the MW and feels like NMEX at least has a shot to make the champ game even w the tough schedule .. not very impressed w SJSU, UNLV, CO.ST, WYO .. UT.ST and FRES.ST have emerged as the other top contenders .. Utah St 20-1 is not bad but very tough schedule ahead of them w @Haw, SJSU @N.Mex .. Bye .. then close out the year @UNLV, @Fresno, Boise .. tough teams and tough spots work is cut out for them .. ESPN took those odds down right away after punching it but had 50's and 60's available shortly after I posted .. It looks like 35x is best at MGM which seems potentially worth a play .. Must shop best odds because the assumption now is they'll be playing Boise as a dog of 10 points or more in Boise if they make the champ game .. depends how the reg ssn game goes but we're not unused to seeing MASSIVE favs for the home team in these G5 home field champ games so shopping the best odds is absolute must .. On that note .. Maybe the best move now is play Lobos after a likely loss in a really tough spot @Boise, think you can go well north of 50x at that point .. AF just lost and odds bounced to 40x or more .. NMEX could be a more dramatic drop maybe its 60x?.. Nothing looks unwinnable beyond that and finale feels like a lock win at the end catching a rising SDSU team totally out of their "elements" in that home finale .. good luck! |
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BRIDGE PLAYS LOUISIANA -2 (CIRCA) .. REDRUM Revenge at home .. SMALLER UTAH ST +22 (CIRCA) .. Vandy off revenge romp .. chill spot pre-bama .. |
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SPOT INFO .. ECU / ARMY Also keep in mind Army was getting TROUNCED at home by UNT 21-zip .. by end of the game they nearly came back lost in OT .. UNT was WOOOORN OUT and Army had em in that Quicksand trap .. a couple horror show mistakes by UNT and nearly cost them a sure thing win .. very tough spot goin to Wash St for big win and then to Army .. near total collapse wasn't a surprise .. just something to keep in mind there .. S.BAMA / UNT .. ULL / MARSH VANDY / UTAH ST .. |
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@bookieassassin Thanks brother .. yeah I had some other stuff going on last week and by the time to post just felt out of sync .. man o man yeah I think last week was EPIC carnage for some plays that looked rather great .. some I was on for sure .. Good to hear from you and Good luck dude! |
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BRIDGE PLAY C.MICHIGAN -5.5 It's a big rivalry with E.Mich and that can only create worry .. we also have E.Mich getting a big win vs ULL .. we suspect ULL is trash after losing their QB and program in decline all the way .. We've seen CMU's run game look very strong already for significant parts vs SJSU .. they may not be the greatest data point but we expected a bad ass army style rush attack and they have one .. also surprised me with their abilities to defend the quick passes and cause disruptions .. big huge long passes were another story and a few big passes nearly cost them that game .. EMICH run D is horrible .. gave up 230 rush to LIU .. 480 yds total in the loss .. out yarded majorly .. CMU's rush attack should be a permanent major advantage in this game .. wouldnt' surprise me if they put up 35 .. I took a smidge on the total over 55.5 as well .. really depends on CMU's execution if they just romp on the ground and not make mistakes .. EMU's offense can actually play so some worry here but best bet for them is to 'GO LONG' and try to land some big plays .. this might be hit and miss but should move the game along and create efficient scoring or quick turnarounds to CMU who I'm sure will oblige them in going for a HUGE win here .. |
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BRIDGE PLAY PITTSBURGH +6.5 (FAN) I can't get a big amount down early but let's call it a BP anyway .. record is crappy and hope this is not too much dud here .. Can't throw out the meltdown loss vs WV but very much a diff state of mind for the participants playing that one .. WV was 'win at all costs' sell out biggest game of the year all that matters .. same for Pitt and then pitt pulls a total shocker .. MAJOR disappointment in a major super rivalry revenge against road spot .. Fast Forward .. I really like the spot for Pitt off a loss in past years and even vs a bloody battle vs Tenn into OT with multiple QB's hurt a few years ago they were -9 vs W.Mich and with no QB ran it right up their a$$ and covered easy .. we saw them beat the pants off of FCS teams after early season losses .. this time we're off a bye week and vs a major opponent .. I'd suggest checking injuries but my sense is we might see the best punch that Pitt will throw the rest of the season in this game .. very surprised we're getting 6.5 and my 'OMINOUS LINE' radar is in overdrive .. but still its a big home spot and I don't know that injuries are necessarily the key factor in this one .. if Narduzzi's team gets a bye week after a loss and shows up as a dud I'd be pretty surprised .. Programs are old BIG EAST in FB and still BE conf rivals in BBALL .. not as many meetings lately since Narduzzi took over in 2015 but he is 3-2 vs them and often a close game .. last year stung BAAD with a 28 point loss .. Ville won in '22 .. Pitt great year was 9-4 and that L likely kept them from having a shot to make the champ game that year .. Pitt returned the favor in '23 with a 38-21 win at home .. Ville was 10-2 7-1 conf .. beat ND and went to the conf champ game .. Pitt won 3 games that year Wofford, BC and Ville .. Ville returned serve last year with a massive 28 POINT WIN kicking Pitt right in the JUNK .. time to return the favor ..
Huge massive home spot for Pitt .. they gave up 175 yds rushing to WV but that was on 58 att's for an even 3/carry .. CMU is one-dimensional with their run game but can actually run the ball against a level of competition and Pitt shut it down .. 41 att's for 32 yds .. under 1 yd/carry .. this Run D can play .. Ville showed a potential weakness in their run game vs JMU getting shut down all game 25 att's for 40 yds before the VERY dangerous Isaac Brown broke one late .. this run D might be in a class of its own in this conf .. we'll know this week .. Also not sold on some of Ville's D .. Pre-ssn expectation is LB's very strong.. Up front is not bad esp with a MAJOR DUDE like Clev Lubin .. they put 6 sacks on JMU all told but think lot of that had to do w JMU's lack of WR's and mixing up the QB's Sluka got stopped a couple times behind the LOS .. Phil had them with #73 secondary in the mag .. that got my attention .. Pitt lack of a run game vs WV is concerning and we don't really know if the rec unit is much .. we expect high scoring w pitt's quick pace and OC Bell can scheme guys open vs weaker opponents create big explosives .. maybe we see it here idk .. would lean under just given possibility of 2 run games that can get stalled out .. we do have 2 MAJOR RB's in Isaac Brown and Desmond Reid so can't play total here .. 6.5 is just tooooo many .. at home with a possible show stopping run D and I think if Ville struggles in that area they will struggle to win this one at all .. |
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SMALLER CINCY +5.5 (FAN) Great spot for Cincy to get back in the swing .. off an FCS and a bye .. we've seen em play one (effective) road game and despite lack of a pass game they hung in pretty close w Nebraska in front of a raucous KC HUSKER-FRIENDLY crowd .. Sorsby is a dude though and hope we can count on him to move the chains here .. KU looks impressive .. took them for a few bucks last week for just a lock down solid spot w WV off an L @Ohio .. come back and beat PITT in the only highly meaningful game of the entire season.. and then go on the road after the massive unreal comeback win and totally lay an egg .. to NOBODY'S surprise .. KU with Hishaw out H2 last week .. 'apparent injury' .. unclear if he's back or not .. Cincy I'd check injuries along their D-Front which is going to HAVE TO show us something here .. Cincy does this drop everyone in coverage defensive bit and idk if giving time to Daniels to make a play is a great thing .. I can say they can't let him make any plays w his legs .. still Cincy 9 sacks so far .. given up zero .. w no blitz D that's something we like .. 20 total TFL's vs 9 given up .. and the havoc didn't all just show up in the 77-zip win vs NW State they did it to the Huskers and Bowling Green too .. We've also seen Sorsby do ALOT more passing albeit vs BG and the FCS team .. Nebraska has held every team to VERY low passing numbers .. Cincy, Akron, FCS all under 70 yds passing .. Michigan with their run game humming goes 12/22 for 105 yds .. Neb Pass D is for real .. I expect more passing from Sorsby .. Can't go more than Smaller but this line moved VERY FAST .. 3.5 now laying odds .. sorry need to post faster .. |
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BRIDGE PLAY DUKE -5.5 (FAN) Took last night at the open .. Nothing is more ominous than laying points with Duke at this point .. But I can say that their offense has at least been firing on all cylinders and showed some propensity to stop a run game or at least slow one down and nothing out of hand on the ground given up vs ILL or NC State .. Duke also propensity to get after the QB taking ILL QB down 4 times, TFL's look ok .. they do give up a certain amount of their own which is troubling .. and turnovers and other botched plays .. Cuse played the game of their lives .. key loss here though as Steve Angelli went down, seen on crutches, 'he will miss some games' was the word after the game and I don't think that surprised anyone looking at him during the game .. Am I getting bamboozled here by Fran the great injury Psyop genius trying to get Duke to let their guard down?.. Not sure we've ever seen a move quite like that and boy would that be a WILD one because they put Ricky Collins in last game he goes 3/8 34 yards .. he did throw a nice TD ball but overall was ineffective in this game and we also saw him come in last week vs Colgate .. not terrible 6-4 1 TD but threw a terrible pick .. that was when Angelli came back in to keep routing them .. Expectations in my mind is that Collins is a major step down from Angelli, has very little experience and will be facing some serious heat .. Duke has shown enough propensity to give up big plays in the pass game but I think limited run game and new QB limit what they can do .. Cuse also always shows up vs Clemson and played some bad games but quite a few close ones .. first win since 2017 .. in '18 they nearly won again and might have if Kelly Bryant wasn't injured which set the stage for T-LAW's first ever start .. Cuse lost the next week vs a very hit n miss Pitt team to finish a big year 10-3 .. we've seen quite a few stinkers the week after Clemson L's and my expectation is after they slay a dragon like this we'll see a downer .. we saw them lose @Pitt last year 13-41 after a big NC State win on the road .. also big VT win they lost @BC, the game Castellanos got hurt early on still just too much of a downer .. Duke can now forget about sneaking in the playoffs with their win total .. great start to conference beating NC State .. they hand every bit of that momentum back and way more if they blow it this week .. could say that for Cuse as well certainly but note also Cuse wk1 big game vs Tenn .. downer vs UCONN came back in the end .. ran gassers after for Colgate which is actually a huge rivalry and they put angelli back in the game to make sure it would stay a huge blowout .. off an EPIC program record books win .. IN DEATH VALLEY .. very heavy spot IMO .. Good luck! |
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Buffalo .. up 17-zip in Q4 exactly what we were looking for w 'Get off the mat spot' at home vs 'Team in total soul search mode' and taking an L didn't matter much.. Coaches rotating QB's every drive with Kilcrease going out dead to nuts terrible .. Ui Ali could sorta throw the ball but saw more action in one drive than the last 3 years and mistakes killing his drives .. Desperate to find a QB and itself offensively no pressure to win spot and while the D played tough it wasn't lock'em sock'em lock down best game.. Troy drive enders included 4 punts, 1 fumble, Downs, INT for 175 yds 4.5 yds / play nothing working .. in Q4 its 3 drives 191 yds, TD, TD, TD for the win .. know some folks on Troy's TT U 19.5 .. Buffalo QB roberson got injured late and up 3 scores just layed the F down and blew a sure thing cover and sure thing win and holy smokes I could at least comprehend losing the cover but felt like almost no chance we would .. but I've never seen a team take a loss like that .. almost never .. Duke vs UNC last year Heels up 20-zip and that was at least on the road .. yeah feels like a top 10 all time stake thru the eyeball play I found .. FIU .. didn't even bother to show up to their own CUSA funeral here .. Delaware is a solid team but this was a spot that FIU shoulda found the wind at their back and instead they had zero shot before H1 .. even a slight sign of life in H2 got stomped out quickly and felt like they did it all to themselves after playing really well in all their games this year, at the very least playing hard and had alot to like about them .. then big conf home spot they lay a total egg .. Expected Del to be in rough shape after 3 straight hard fought big games .. they didn't skip a beat .. total whiff on both ends = blowout loss and capped the double disbelief atomic bridge play bomb week .. friggin couldn't believe it.. Slow week finding and glad I didn't mention many .. had a few unshared .. liked UVA in the spot .. liked Wash .. KU in a great spot vs WV in a terrible one .. lotta points on those and noticed not many dogs making the card time to pull it back a bit .. Was spying Wisco to blow a wacky MD team out the water pre-ssn .. torpedos lined up .. needed to know Billy Edwards was playing, heard they will "play him and see how it goes" figured we could in-game that for better and WOW so glad I didn't share that and I never got to lose money either .. ECU in a great spot makes some unreal mistakes and then plays like crap all of H2 .. yeah glad I didn't share that one .. So.Miss and Illinois smelled like a putrid fish and we found out there was a reason .. Mizzoo I sent news last week of the OL being out .. stats didn't seem to indicate it mattered much ZOO went 460 yds to 300 .. shut down SCAR's run game completely for zero yards .. Cocks with 3x the penalties w 2x the penalty yards, had plenty of their own injury situations to deal with .. Zoo sacked em 5 times, scar sacked em once .. at home .. and yet were in the game very late, zoo didn't lock it away till last min FG .. no cover for most .. very similar 'how in the world' feel to that one .. Just a note too I have one of those cfb ats pick'em pools I've run for many years .. every week we have a few folks miss the deadline and it runs automatic picks and 6 outta .. Autopick dominated placing top 4 .. no player picks had anything resembling something more than a decent week .. wasn't total carnage but nobody handpicked a great week .. man o man .. |
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BP: LW 0-2, YTD: 7-12 BRIDGE PLAYS
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BRIDGE PLAY FIU -4.5 Like how they've been playing and legit contender in CUSA .. its not to say Del won't take conf seriously but they aren't able to play in the game this year and you ask what's important for them .. they played very hard in first home game as an FBS team vs FCS Delaware State .. a game that was closer than expected .. they play a full 60 on the road vs Colorado .. lose big for sure but man o man long travel and very tough game .. they come back for first FBS / FBS matchup at home and play a great game vs UCONN .. My read was to play on UCONN in H2 expecting Delaware to wear out .. I had UCONN ML and we were 1 1st down away 92% win prob with 2:17 left int he game UCONN had this in the bag essentially on their drive and had Delaware in a tough spot in the final 2 minutes as they went down to tie it up heading to OT and I lost the in game that felt pretty locked in .. MASSSSIVE WIN for the HENS .. No doubt a BIIIG party afterward .. I think this spot screams out of gas for Delaware on the road and in a very natural down spot for many reasons .. don't love to lay points against a hard fighting hens team that seems to just be going for broke now playing big in a huge spot with really nothing to lose .. but that does seem like the reason they'll likely struggle this week .. VERY tough B2B games and I doubt they'll regroup and play a big game in this spot .. very much a MASSIVE game for FIU who looks to have a real shot to play in the CUSA champ game for the first time since 2018 I believe .. Trusting the spot and my eyes / expectations that it strikes the Hens in this one and we get FIU playing up in this big home spot .. Good luck! |
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MISSOURI NEWS .. Cayden Green their best OL moved to tackle this year .. out this game .. Green is a more natural guard according to pre-ssn Mizzoo talkers and they moved him to tackle to have their best guy on the edge .. I'd expect possible jumbling positions on the OL and very critical matchup now how Mizzoo will handle the heat coming off the edge from ELITE DE Dylan Stewart and SOLID DE Bryan Thompson Jr .. Man o man I would def stick to the run game and not chance things too much with Pribula back there trying to take shots .. maybe critical change here lines us up for less explosive drives / lower scoring action .. |
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BRIDGE PLAY BUFFALO -5 (BM) Watching last week I rate Buff as a total down spot making mistakes left and right .. not playing with fire ironically had them playing with fire late vs Kent .. Kent looked much different playing very hard and new QB Deshields can put legit drives together .. Buffalo in a huge 'get off the mat' spot w out I'd say the pressure that an L to kent state woulda brought to focus more on the conference play .. this feels like we might get Buffalo's best game of the year .. Troy in a major soul searching spot playing B2B tough games vs Clemson and Memphis .. lost Goose and Kilcrease their backup was GRADE A TURD MEAT .. Troy MUST figure out the QB sitch before conf play and listening to the coach they really have no idea what to do yet .. I expect multiple QB's to try out in this game and really no emphasis on a need to win here .. HUGE emphasis on finding a capable QB before conference starts .. - Like Troy D alot but it'll be 2 tough games B2B and on the road now and if I was Troy's coach I'd have no problem using this game to test my depth out and no get anyone else hurt .. Altentate plays I'd say are Troy Under 19.5 .. we expect Buff's D to be good and make them work for everything .. loooong drives like Kent had to do .. and I highly doubt they'll be able to cap their drives off in this game .. |
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Another year the smallers dominate ? .. hope not .. sheesh UGA bad call layin points in a big road spot .. massive spot for the vols .. felt like we were getting ready to dominate after the first drive of H2 took a 6 pt lead at one point only to be left needing UT's missed FG .. hand it to Tennessee they aren't bad and Joey is better than Nico .. easy to admit THAT!!! .. Got the slow game with W.Mich / Ill .. W.Mich didn't do anything to help us .. Wyoming right idea 3-zip at the half D causing trouble Utah not playing their best game at all .. lost the cover late in the game only for Pokes to SURGE and take it back w a late score .. 2 mins left Utes get the call to drop another TD on em w like 30 seconds left with all the backups in .. sickening .. Buffalo bad call surprisingly bad spot total no show job .. and Kent State w new QB DeShields looked like a DIFFERENT TEAM and one that .. unfortunately .. might win a few games this yr .. VANDY, ODU, TAMU, N.MEX .. SU DOG WINS .. ECU Easy .. Coastal is turd central .. GA.SO/JVILLE .. Tsunami of scoring .. NMEX / UCLA Under .. Nico maybe only one trying .. UCLA D didn't blow it for us but very well could have .. they suuuuck!! .. Troy loses QB Goose early on .. let's just say his wingman was not exactly Top Gun material .. the backup Kilcrease was unbelievably bad .. somehow we had a chance to cover that verrrry late in the game before the dam broke, read on the D was a good one Troy D scored a TD and did all they could .. think we we actually cover the 8 if Goose didn't go down .. Florida .. sheesh .. Fun Bet pretty much in hand by halftime and late score kills it .. bummer .. |
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BP: LW 1-5, YTD: 7-10 BRIDGE PLAYS |
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