Bridge1

*** .. ASU / Duke news .. 

Sounds like Mensah is returning and playing in the bowl .. 

SHUUUX .. 

Line is steady eddy at -2.5 for now .. was -1.5 to -2.5 before .. would imagine this might encourage some to bet up to -3 .. but as we noted in the ASU alt line considerations .. this feels maybe close to the line they'd have with Mensah playing and still alot of wonder about whether this team is really wanting to show up .. obvi it does help that case with D-MEN showing up .. we still have had some key opt outs on Duke but would imagine if Mensah plays that the core nutz n bolts on the team will be available .. .. 

CONT'D .. 

PARLAY FUN:
JVILL, DEL, OHIO  .02/.22
JVILL, DEL, OU, S.MISS  .03/.62
DEL, WASH, VANDY, NAVY .1/1.17
WASH -9, MINN, LTECH -7, HOU, NAVY  .1/3.5
PITT -7, FRES, HOU, ILL, TCU  .05/1.53
W.MICH-3, OKLA+1, HOU, TCU .15/2.3
NAVY ML/U38.5, WASH-9.5, JVILL, S.DAK .04/1.23 

ALT-LINE FUN:

ARMY -20.5 / U42.5 .1 / 1.15
ARMY -20.5 / U45.5 .1 / .93
ARMY -27.5 / U45.5 .1 / 2.3
ARMY -28.5 / U46.5 .03 / .63
ARMY TTO 34.5 / UCONN TTU 9.5   .05 / 1.2
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 13.5 .03 / 1.5
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .03 / 4.3
ARMY TTO 39.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .05 / 4.3

TCU -2.5   .5/.95
TCU -6.5   .3/1.0
TCU -13.5 .1/.9
TCU -12/U56.5 .1/1.5
TCU -6 / U49.5 .1/1.1

ASU -2.5/U45.5   .1/.43
ASU -2.5/U42.5   .1/.53
ASU -9.5/U35.5   .1/2.1
ASU -16.5/U31.5 .1/7.5

HEISMAN
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1 

MAKE NATTY 
OHIO STATE -120 WK12

NATTY:
TEXAS TECH 175-1
TEXAS TECH 12-1 WK15
OHIO STATE 2-1 WK12

BRIDGE BOWLS 12/17  

BOWL SSN: 6-5, +1.2 UNITS

ARMY  -7       2.7/2.5
ARMY +1.5     .55/.5 (MID)
UCONN +2.5   .44/.4 (MID)
ARMY / UCONN OVER 48.5   .55/.5 (MID)
ARMY / UCONN UNDER 52.5 .33/.3 (MID)
ARMY / UCONN OVER 50.5   .44/.4

MINNESOTA -3     .31/.3
MINNESOTA -2.5  .21/.2

DELAWARE +2.5 .33/.3 
DELAWARE +3.5 .33/.3 

TARLETON -8.5 .55/.5 
TARLETON -9.5 .46/.4 

HOUSTON -3    1.1/1.0
HOUSTON ML    .49/.4
HOUSTON +1.5 .22/.2
HOUSTON -3.5  .33/.3

NAVY +4.5 (vs Cincy) 1.81/1.68
NAVY +5.5 (vs Cincy)   .66/.6
NAVY    ML (vs Cincy)     .4/.63
NAVY     -1 (vs Cincy)   1.1/1.0

ODU ML/U55.5             .3/1.15 
ODU/USF UNDER 55.5 .44/.4 

WASHINGTON -7.5  .31/.3 
WASHINGTON -9     .77/.7 

UTAH -14  .88/.8
UTAH -16  .88/.8

TCU +6.5 1.1/1
USC -6.5  .74/.68 .. Partial vig-out
TCU +4    1.7/1.5

UTSA -8.5  .33/.3

OHIO +4.5  .66/.6

FRESNO -3.5  1.1/1

OLE MISS -17  .88/.8

NC STATE -1.5 .33/.3

ILLINOIS +5.5 .44/.4

LA TECH -6.5   .75/.68

PITTSBURGH -7 .63/.6

OKLAHOMA +1.5  1.1/1

W.MICHIGAN -3  .55/.5

TEXAS A&M -3.5  .44/.4

S.DAKOTA +7.5  .25/.23 

VANDY ML/O46.5  .4/.74

JMU / OREG UNDER 50.5  .9/.8

JVILL / TROY OVER 46.5 .44/.4 

PSU / CLEM UNDER 48.5  .33/.3

MICH / TEXAS UNDER 47.5  .33/.3

MIZZ ST / ARK ST UNDER 58.5 .23/.2 

HYPO - Q-FINALS
OU / INDY -7 .575/.5
BAMA / INDY -5  .575/.5
OREG / TTECH UNDER 52.5 .46/.4

@dubz4dummyz

Hard to say .. I think the big picture on that is there's a push to remove G5's from the playoff .. nothing helps the argument more than Oregon and Ole Miss destroying these guys .. doesn't mean they can ... doesn't mean they will go out of their way to .. but .. if yer a P4 coach .. if yer Stein taking a job at Kentucky .. or the DC taking the job at Cal .. or if yer just the HC at Oregon .. you can put 2+2 together and realize you might be the odd man out in the future if G5's are taking up property in your playoff ... Gander meet Goose.. 

as far as the game .. yeah Oregon D can prob get JMU into the spin cycle of death getting the ball back quick and popping in short field TD's .. JMU's D is not bad .. they could play with Ville .. think suceptible to stronger run gm which Oregon should have .. 

I took under 50.5 and hoping JMU doesn't score much but hoping they don't fall into the death cycle .. note that they will be in desperation mode at some point .. hoping their D doesn't crater early n often and find ways to get Oregon off the field early .. 

Check Oregon's WR situation .. Dakorian Moore might play .. might not .. also Evan Stewart might be back .. interesting development if so .. was expected to be the crown jewel in the offense before OFY injury think in spring prob acl .. no way he plays if he's not healthy .. but doesn't mean he'll show up and be effective .. if both are playing its much more likely Oregon gets the big scores and pummells these guys ... 

@UGA520

 Decicisions decisions .. 

BOWL SSN: 6-5, +1.2 UNITS

MIZZ ST / ARK ST UNDER 58.5 .23/.2 

Sheeesh la-weeeesh .. Ark State 31-7 .. made every dumb move to get Mizz State back in the game and practically handed them a chance to win .. Mizzy gets the onside I'm confident they woulda .. somehow .. someway .. LOST THAT GAME! .. 

@Mskeets

Yeah .. saw that splash down last night .. feels like books were at least semi privvvy to hoover being quarted because nothing about this said to me that TCU should be catching points as of yesterday .. outwardly seemed like he was in .. books either had a beat on it .. or .. just more appropriately skeptical .. feels like I shoulda taken a cue from where they put the lines .. 

So now .. we're back to 6.5 .. where it opened when we expected heavy USC opt outs and full stock TCU roster w hoover .. but .. 6.5 without hoover .. again feels like books knew what was coming .. We also have their good WR Dwyer out and news says from a foot injury in practice.. that stinks too he's a next level dude.. . hope it was true injury and just unfortunate coincidence rather than some cascading effect of opt outs w hoover gone and roster avalanches .. all word from TCU is the bowl .. specifically beating USC .. is very very important and guys are playing .. 

If I had nothing on it I'd wait to see if +7 or better showed up .. I still don't think the sitch sets up where TCU should be catching that many and run the play with some ML action from there .. also worth waiting to see if TCU has more opts or xfers or injuries .. seems like a risk now .. 

Ken Seals looks to be the guy to jump in .. obvi a big drop in confidence w him but there's some reason to at least be optimistic he can carry them in a bowl gm .. disappointing career after being vandy starter as a true fr but never got going after .. would be unfair to judge him on stats from then he was a solid recruit and played early on a really crappy vandy team covid year and would be crappy for some time after .. 

Gunna vigout of my 6.5 now and keep my +4 .... stinks to do that but with Dwyer news might be only chance to get some of the risk off the books .. Will re-assess later after the fallout .. 

HEDGE

USC -6.5 -110 .. .74/.68 (FAN)

@UGA520

 I mean Navy is -7 now which seems pretty wild but I'm on that with plus and played all the way to -1 so can't say don't take it  .. idk anything with NFL .. is Detroit -7 now too? .. 

Let's have a little fun with .. ASU .. For the record I have no idea if Mensah is playing .. PURE SPEC on the chance he doesn't .. B365 supplying the ALT-FUN on this one .. 

Seeing a number of the MAJOR Duke players expected to opt out of the bowl already the top OL-T, DE, CB .. another handful of guys with injuries not in the champ gm dot the roster .. The big huge kahuna we're waiting on is from QB Mensah who made a splash report that he's considering the draft and that's a pretty massive TBD hanging out there .. total down from 51 to 49.5 and probably closer to 43 if he's out .. think its a decent chance he's got the size and the skills and pulled off Duke's first ACC championship since spurrier won it in the early 90's .. I sense the general mood of the team is one of season's over and now riding off into the sunset without much care for anything else after such a career and program defining season and epic OT win .. Can't see an ASU NYE bowl game moving the needle much .. 

Might be throwing away our money no matter what and almost certainly if he plays in the bowl .. but he's putting the pro feelers out and even if staying I could see this bowl gm not be worth taking such a risk .. idk if he's 'pro ready' but would't surprise me and has a great setup to make the leap .. if he does I think these ALTs have major legs as this will most certainly be a very run heavy game with Bellin at QB .. and I'd guess quite a few more injuries, opt outs and xfers, no-shows if Mensah is out not to mention the already likely present 'who cares' sentiment for this gm .. that prob helps the total stay low .. maybe very low .. and possible that ASU can win by a bigger margin with better run game and some D .. they have plenty of roster questions too obviously .. Need some odds to play anything on this gm .. the other way might be take duke +odds to win by margin and hope mensah plays .. but I like this idea better .. Good luck!

ALT-LINE FUN .. 

ASU -2.5/U45.5   .1/.43
ASU -2.5/U42.5   .1/.53
ASU -9.5/U35.5   .1/2.1
ASU -16.5/U31.5 .1/7.5

BOWL SSN: 6-4, +1.4 UNITS
TONIGHT: 4-0 +2.15 UNITS

DELAWARE +2.5 .33/.3 
DELAWARE +3.5 .33/.3 
ODU ML/U55.5 .3/1.15 
ODU/USF UNDER 55.5 .44/.4 

CONT'D .. 

PARLAY FUN
JVILL, DEL, OHIO  .02/.22
JVILL, DEL, OU, SO.MISS  .03/.62
PITT -7, FRES, HOU, ILL, TCU  .05/1.53
W.MICH-3, OKLA+1, HOU, TCU .15/2.3
NAVY (vs Cincy), VANDY, DEL, WASH  .1/1.17
NAVY (vs Cincy), HOU, MINN, LTECH -7, WASH -9  .1/3.5
NAVY (vs Army) ML/U38.5, S.DAK, WASH-9.5, JVILL .04/1.23 

ALT-LINE FUN ..

ARMY -20.5 / U42.5 .1 / 1.15
ARMY -20.5 / U45.5 .1 / .925
ARMY -27.5 / U45.5 .1 / 2.3
ARMY -28.5 / U46.5 .03 / .625
ARMY TTO 34.5 / UCONN TTU 9.5   .05 / 1.15
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 13.5 .03 / 1.5
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .03 / 4.25
ARMY TTO 39.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .05 / 4.25

TCU -2.5   .5/.95
TCU -6.5   .3/1.0
TCU -13.5 .1/.9
TCU -12/U56.5 .1/1.5
TCU -6 / U49.5 .1/1.1

HEISMAN
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1 

MAKE NATTY 
OHIO STATE -120 WK12

NATTY:
TEXAS TECH 175-1
TEXAS TECH 12-1 WK15
OHIO STATE 2-1 WK12

BRIDGE BOWLS 12/17  

BOWL SSN: 2-4, -.74 UNITS

UCONN +2.5   .44/.4 (MID)
ARMY +1.5     .55/.5 (MID)
ARMY  -7       2.7/2.5
ARMY / UCONN OVER 48.5   .55/.5 (MID)
ARMY / UCONN UNDER 52.5 .33/.3 (MID)
ARMY / UCONN OVER 50.5   .44/.4

MINNESOTA -3     .31/.3
MINNESOTA -2.5  .21/.2

DELAWARE +2.5 .33/.3
DELAWARE +3.5 .33/.3

TARLETON -8.5 .55/.5 
TARLETON -9.5 .46/.4 

HOUSTON -3    1.1/1.0
HOUSTON ML    .49/.4
HOUSTON +1.5 .22/.2
HOUSTON -3.5  .33/.3

NAVY +4.5 (vs Cincy) 1.81/1.68
NAVY +5.5 (vs Cincy)   .66/.6
NAVY    ML (vs Cincy)     .4/.63
NAVY     -1 (vs Cincy)   1.1/1.0

ODU ML/U55.5             .3/1.15
ODU/USF UNDER 55.5 .44/.4

WASHINGTON -7.5  .31/.3 
WASHINGTON -9     .77/.7 

UTAH -14  .88/.8
UTAH -16  .88/.8

TCU +6.5 1.1/1
TCU +4    1.7/1.5

UTSA -8.5  .33/.3

OHIO +4.5  .66/.6

FRESNO -3.5  1.1/1

OLE MISS -17  .88/.8

NC STATE -1.5 .33/.3

ILLINOIS +5.5 .44/.4

LA TECH -6.5   .75/.68

PITTSBURGH -7 .63/.6

OKLAHOMA +1.5  1.1/1

W.MICHIGAN -3  .55/.5

TEXAS A&M -3.5  .44/.4

S.DAKOTA +7.5  .25/.23 

VANDY ML/O46.5  .4/.74

JMU / OREG UNDER 50.5  .9/.8

JVILL / TROY OVER 46.5 .44/.4 

PSU / CLEM UNDER 48.5  .33/.3

MICH / TEXAS UNDER 47.5  .33/.3

MIZZ ST / ARK ST UNDER 58.5 .23/.2

HYPO - Q.FINALS
OU / INDY -7 .575/.5
BAMA / INDY -5  .575/.5
OREG / TTECH UNDER 52.5 .46/.4

BOWL PLAY

W.MICHIGAN -3  .55/.5

B365 has a 3 with normal odds while most of the board is steamin to 3.5 .. good luck ..

BOWL PLAY

TCU +4 1.7/1.5

Doublin down w the other TE and maybe top guy on the DL in the portal .. DL Thompkins was their top pressure guy and lead starter of the DL this year .. the TE played about 30% of the overall reps and was 2nd fiddle to NFL DUDE TE LAKE McRae but still #5 in rec yds and targets .. good blocker .. mmm ..  

Lotta lines dippin to 3.5 .. idk how SC will be a fav in this one w out some big key opt outs from TCU .. 

BOWL PLAY

OKLAHOMA +1.5 .. 1.1/1 (CZRs)

This is principally a tail but one I got on board with pretty easy .. Bama's D really just doesn't have the dudes up front this yr and we've seen this be a problem in quite a few of their games .. on the flip side they've struggled quite a bit running the ball themselves culminating in a negative rush yd affair in the SEC champ gm and yd / carry has been a major struggle for them every SEC game .. OU did benefit from +3 in turnovers last meeting and eeked out a win in Tuscaloosa .. and very unimpressive vs LSU in the finale .. the stats were heavy one sided to OU but big struggle scoring points, offense has been OU's achilleas heel all year just never got things going vs SEC D's struggles constantly to put up 200 yds passing and over 60% comps .. 

Bama benefits from getting Jam Miller back he's a legit RB that will give them at least A CHANCE here but lot to like for OU with time off / full strength for the most part and in Norman .. the D is killer and might put Bama's offense in a real bind .. also really really like taking points having maybe the best kicker .. 22/22 .. 7-7 from 50+ .. hit the ceiling on PFF with a 100 grade .. you just don't ever see it .. Bama's guy 4/7 from 40-50 yds .. hasn't attempted a FG from 50+ .. F+ model puts OU SP.TMs at #7 and bama at a HIDDEOUS #100 with numerous ST units ranked sub 100th .. OU with really the only legit returner in this gm w Stangenegn and the punt and kick off efficiencies are pretty .. Bama's fairly crappy .. Just the sorta advantage I like in a likely very gritty D heavy / field pos game w a line under a FG total around 40 and like taking the free point and that hook could def be the clincher in a gm like this .. 

Beyond the matchup, the real big picture advantage IMO is the HFA having a month off to prep and opponent walking into a lions den .. was a KILLER for the road teams last year and just a surprise that bama is layin anything here .. we'll see .. good luck!

@BigTymePlayer25

Still 4.5 which is really just the first big hurdle I was thinking TCU shoulda broken thru and maybe knock this closer to even with things juuuust looking very one-sided .. not doubling down but figure take some ALT-FUN with the FROGS there .. 

Certainly don't expect USC to rollover and play dead here they did show up for TAMU last yr in a very late gm but think they had alot of the studs playing .. and its 'very late' bowl season so if USC has a few big WR dudes off the bench that weren't cracking the lineup and maiiva slings it deep with ease for big plays this could easily go the wrong way .. but maaaan ... SP+ says -9 USC you'd naturally trim that down in a bowl gm to 7 or 6.5 or so i'd think .. then lose a legit very very ELITE maybe best in CFB group of rec targets and all the other stuff piles on top and kinda points to 'gettin ready for next year' playing lotta depth .. And just the early notes from TCU it seems like they're in a position to take a much diff approach with most or all of the team expecting to show up w some pro prospects and seniors on a fairly healthy team and BIG NAME opponent not some SDSU or New Mexico dweebs .. TCU better want a big show off win if they can here ... 

But maybe misreading the situation and TCU opts are still coming or USC's young guns vs TCU's vets still project much better for this gm w Maiiava playing .. that could be .. anyway 4.5 still feel like a deal IMO .. 

Hit TCU in the nick of time when the big opt outs just started anticipating more .. and now we're seeing a few more BIIIIG MOVES .. Reporting seems to strongly indicate NFL guys are opting out and xfers won't play and there will be a TON of younger guys seeing action for USC in this gm .. 

RB, WR/TE, OL have MAJOR departures and other xfer / injury concerns the TE/WR group was SUPER ELITE this yr and should be a huge drop off .. DL maybe okay but has a dude likey out from that unit .. DE likely has 1 of their 3 guys out to injury could be back .. LB loses MAJOR DUDE GENTRY going pro .. his direct backup at SAM is out .. Safety might be very light but not totally inexperienced .. Lemon was USCs only major return threat .. 

I expect lotta young talented players to play for USC here but a HUGE core of the starters and other leaders and even backups appear to be out but doesn't mean they won't be playing hard .. the real saving grace is Maiiava does appear to be playing and I'd expect that .. 

Not seeing much in the xfer or opt out dept from TCU yet .. word from the team has been pretty steady that they expect few if any opt outs .. Bud Clark is a notable injury late in the yr but reportedly available the final week and will be for the bowl gm .. Lotta seniors banded and playing .. this looks n sounds like one of the better situations .. Def one I can get behind taking points considering USC's situations .. SP+ says this is USC -9 and makes sense books cut that down for the bowl to 6.5 open and now down to 4.5 .. still seems way too high to me given the circumstances, esp to hits at WR/TE and OL .. USC could be dangerous but think we should look at them and what they ant from this bowl much diff than what the model's assumptions are based on ..  

Let's have some fun with the alt lines on this one we can imagine a game with TCU having a great time and the USC offense struggling a bit .. 

TCU -2.5   .5/.95
TCU -6.5   .3/1.0
TCU -13.5 .1/.9
TCU -12/U56.5 .1/1.5
TCU -6 / U49.5 .1/1.1

Let's have a little fun w the Uconn situation ... its sounding like even the backup QB Nick Evers might not play .. this is coming out of THE BONEYARD a vibrant UCONN blog that some aren't sure Nick Evers is steppin up to this one .. some tweets and a bit of speculation in there and it kinda rings like he might be hitting the portal and might sit out either way .. part of me still thinks this could get shut down but sounds like we're still a go as of now .. fingers xx'd uconn shows up .. good luck!

B365 SGP ACTION: 

ARMY -20.5 / U42.5 .1 / 1.15
ARMY -20.5 / U45.5 .1 / .925
ARMY -27.5 / U45.5 .1 / 2.3
ARMY -28.5 / U46.5 .03 / .625
ARMY TTO 34.5 / UCONN TTU 9.5   .05 / 1.15
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 13.5 .03 / 1.5
ARMY TTO 49.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .03 / 4.25
ARMY TTO 39.5 / UCONN TTU 6.5   .05 / 4.25

BOWL PLAY

TCU +6.5 .. 1.1/1.0 (BOL)

6.5 won't be around for long at BOL but you can find some 6.5's layin -115 or 6's at -110 .. we're a ways out but TCU so far sounds like they expecting to show up and I'm not saying this was the best team this year they do have a few good pieces .. some might in-deed bail out on us before the bowl comes .. but I like the prospect of a team kinda knowing they wanna show up and beat another big name early on for a late 12/30 bowl catching nearly a TD .. USC with a full roster could prob handle this line but my suspicion early was they gotta be busy making moves for next year and might not be very enticing to some of their BIG MAJOR stars like the WR duo to show up to this one .. already seeing J'Kobi Lane declaring for the NFL so that would be one if he confirms he's out for the bowl .. I would expect Maiava to play but just a good sich in my view with TCU rating much higher on the Famous "BRIDGE BOWL WANT METER" and catching nearly a TD .. GOOD LUCK! 

PARLAY

PITT -7, FRES, HOU, ILL, TCU .. .05/1.53

Little fun .. like Pitt and think they can cover that off the news .. Fresno now looks like a mover take them for the win .. ILL been steady lowering we'll see what the news is there .. did see the big LB Gabe is out for the Illini and a couple others but Altmeyer says he's ready to rock and saw some guys dropping for Tenn and kinda expect a few more there so .. recent line move suggests there's some significant news from Tenn but idk what it is .. TCU says they're ready to rock and feels like they showed up ready last year in the very very late bowl spot to drop the hammer last year so getting good odds for a bowl team saying they're showing up .. I'd half expect some of the very best USC WR's to not be fully committed to that gm .. lot to lose for them but so far no word there .. - GOOD LUCK!