fts1409

Seeing too much w officiating that is unsettling. AUB got the shaft big-time vs Ok.  I'm of the opinion Frieze must have really pissed off the wrong people. 

Sometimes,you just gotta buy em when no one wants em..You ain't gonna make money doing what every one else,the masses r doing.  And address that recency bias.  Understand the old man played pretty well. 

Nice W.  5-1 NFL teasers. 2-0 weekend. Quality,not quantity.

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Simplicity...is the new sophistication friends.

My record in NFL teasers so far is 4-1, all posted. No teaser expert. Can't discuss EV+ and similar. Do know a bit  re the the old Wong strategy and recent modifications. And have read a good bit about John Ferguson. The originator.  Try to keep it simple...and fun. No major monies at risk.  Hopefully, the Bungals will  show up...to some extent. It's all good.

Nice start. Frankly I feel like Joe just might surprise today.  If not,I do have a nice cushion. To win by greater than 21 in the NFL is an outlier. Yes,it certainly does happen. And could. Moreover,the Packers have not been playing that great as of late.

Two pieces of advice. Gotta learn how to lose,with effective risk MGMT...before you can win. Secondly after Ben Hogan was asked many,many times what the secret was,he replied" it's in the dirt".  So,start digging.

Prevailing mkt sentiment,expectations quite negative on both. Thus, potential value. Potential. Adding a TD,up and thru some additional key nos, potentially gives me more value as such. Perhaps not. No biggie... Just one play among many forthcoming. None holds any more significance than the other. Losses r ok...and expected.  Feel my edge will play out long-term.

@JimmyGape

 Probably but just kicking back after UGA win. Haven't really looked at the slate yet. I like going agst the grain,consensus at times. A lot of pts,margin for error imo.  Nothing big. Best of luck to you today also. 

Hold your nose. +14.5, + 21.5.  Slightly contrarian,out of favor. GL to all today.

Aren't you the gent who had FSU beating Ala first game? Spread and Ml. That was amazing. If so,folks might wanna pay attention. 

Further,I'm no capping expert.Just an older UGA grad who enjoys the challenge,fun of football betting speculation . Seeing a lot of hostility, negativity here.  Make your own damn decisions,develop your own approach,etc ..If you have the work ethic,persistence and dedication. Most don't.  Moreover, If one scrolls back,they will see I had Ala+8.5 agst UGA in a teaser. 4-1 in NFL teasers so far.  All posted. Frankly,if the negativity persists,I'll just keep my thoughts to myself.  Losses r expected. Winning at CFB,long-term, consistently is very,very difficult. 

How bout Dem Dawgs?  Another nice W. This game,once again,demonstrated two dominant trends been in effect past few seasons. Lackluster,poor first halves...and KS and staff making excellent halftime adjustments. We have seen this over and over. Repeatedly   And ,in my opinion, it certainly appears Frieze apparently has pissed off someone important,or more,in the SEC as he has been on the receiving end of numerous, questionable officiating  decisions...or lack thereof. The Ok game was egregious. Further,it is rare when the SEC issues a public apology resultant from one. Just one play,tonight,among many forthcoming. None is any more important than the other. As Bob Rotella,McElroys sports psychologist says,need to be indifferent,unattached to each shot,play.  Follow your process and trust the long-term edge,outcome. He is excellent. All should read. GL today if NFL too. 

Imo Frieze has obviously pissed off,alienated some important folks. Too many calls now going agst.

Obviously Frieze has pissed off,alienated some important folks. Dominating though.

5.5 now. Wow. Anybody else hear ESPN nagandi w booger on pregame stuff say this is a big win for AUB and Frieze. They really needed it ".  Hmmm.

I have observed that often, but not always, there can b some stastical significance to mkt investment extremes,or lack thereof, such as here.  Mkt doesn't appear to have much confidence in AUB.  However,imo, with so many unquantifiable variables and randomness,not sure if this enhances ones perceived edge that much.  No certainties...only probabilities . I am a futures trader,and this is very much applicable there.  Trump didn't let me knew he was going to tweet re the China tariffs. Was flat,thank heavens. Many hurt.

71/73/88 split.  Tix,handle and ML handle.  Mkt doesn't appear to be bidding on AUB much at these prices.  Mkt is often wrong too. 

@stichael23

 Believe I later referenced the DL  pressure,sack rate was low. Amongst other.

I see Arnold was 0-12 third down conversions agst tx am. Wow. Understand they will be retiring Cam Newtons jersey. Are they going to have a fashion show with it too ? Would expect better from Arnold here,for obvious reasons,plus uga d front  not too hot so far w pressures,sacks. Not the same D of recent years. A lot of pressure on AUB and Frieze.Recency doesn't look that promising imo

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