fts1409

I may be a square then.  I've seen a lot of the sl called experts b awful. Esp the ESPN NFL game day show guys.  Often a very good fade when they all agree.  If I lose here, won't kill me. Losing is normal and expected. 

There's never any certainty. And as successful speculators , we need to pursue an outlook of probability,detachment, enhanced decision making and otsdg risk MGMT .

@JimboSlice01

 No, all in. Just very analytical...and bored.  Just like my theoretical edge,to enhance my perceived probability. Yet,one never knows. The stimulation of the puzzle,challenge.  Very hard to handicap youthful emotions and momentum on the playing field. And officiating. 

McElroy right now talking bout  how poor pass protection has been a big factor in Simpson recent poorer play,esp agst UGA.  With OT, Cuevas and Miller back, should b better tonight.  Could make all the difference,as when  you give him a clean pocket,possibly return to some semblance of earlier success. Could b a significant challenge agst that excellent OU def front,esp w Thomas back.  Grubbs needs to be creative and neutralize such.

Certainly Ala has changed all of their O signals as to prevent Venables attempts to steal them. Been accused of numerous times. Look at Kiffins comments.  Unfortunate,one has to cheat to compete. Terrible reputation at Clempsun too.

Don't let recency bias influence your decision. A lot of key starters returning, getting healthy. Moreover,if Ok is such a superior time right NOW with HFA, then why aren't they favored? Gonna b some surprised folks.  I doubt seriously Ala gonna look like crap three games in a row. Reversion to the mean as such. Maybe not. 

@BoatRace

 Guess we'll see. I could b dead wrong. No biggie. Frankly,I disagree with you. However,with all the bs and undercurrents associated with the line and associated book liability, esp in an extremely heavily bet game like this, nothing surprises me anymore.  We r just pawns in a huge money making enterprise. Can we consistently beat it long term? I doubt it. GL to all. 

One last thing....Bama has the largest viewership in the country. Look at the nos,like I did this am.  And as all us sophisticated bettors here know, the Powers that Be r extremely focused on ratings...and subsequently revenues.  Which BRAND has the long-term, significant following ? Hence, I'll let others read between the lines. Hello... No certainty...only probabilities. Go Dawgs! 

I knows Barry and Bosworth and Baker done loaded up. We gonna have us a big party.  I just hope QB hand ok. We ain't got no running game. Hate for one of dem huge Tide DL to accidentally stomps on it. 

Damn Maybelline,we may have to go to the bank. Santa is gonna b early. We getting us a point and a half agst that piss poor team,with no QB, awful coach,  with -3 yds rushing, that just got the yin yang beat out of em.  Shazam. Let's get dem credit cards. Hallelujah! I love me some Sooner fb. 

No doubt about it,eh?  They certainly could.Trap line for Ok backers.  Why did Vegas open this shitty,out manned Bama team as a fav on the road? After that recent,very public azz whooping.

Certainly,with ESPN being a partner w DK now,after closing down ESPN bet,they wouldn't try to influence their huge viewing audience ?? Don't trust em. Seen too much bs.  Now,if Erin Dolen wanted to meet for a drink to talk about her outlook, I'm all ears. 

Connelly had some point pointing out in same season rematches,of like, loser won in rematch 5 of 6 times. Couldn't find reference in accompanying article. It was a headline. Bama gonna surprise. Too much media negativity. Imo. Value

Fortenberry on right now pushing both favs. Imagine that. Is smart in that like me,likes UGA +550. Good value.  D coming on strong...front and back end. Ain't given up more than 2 TDs last 4,and this includes TX,Bama and GT. Total. 

Just checked out ESPN FPI....20.3 vs 16.7 Bama. Sagarin higher also. Should b fun. Can't decide on Sat game.

@ToddC

Read Warren Sharp Analytics analysis. Check it out. Moreover,thinking to myself ,Tide has looked like crap last two( recency bias), yet Vegas opens them as a fav on the road agst a very good Ok ? What r the odds they beat them twice in a row ? Low. Bama was missing 13 agst UGA. Have numerous key  starters back. Miller,TE,and OT. Among others.  Revenge and pissed re the logo incident in T.  Frankly, I'm of the opinion Bama O is more potent ,diversified with Miller and TE back( fav target of Simpson ). Ok O not too potent, esp w M down field inconsistency.  Bama Mkt value,perception low,possibly undervalued. To me,that's when I want em.   Could b wrong. Won't b the first time. Majority of handle on Bama too. A good weekend to all. 

Bama ml ,Miami +3.5 for me. Good luck with your plays Sir

Watching sports center early this am,gonna skip Get Up. To think not a single  one of the five yesterday picked a team,that had won nine in a row,playing at home as a dog, in one of the most difficult venues for a visiting team, to win,cover the game,frankly,is beyond credible.  With one of the best Ds in the league. If bettors don't question this,they really shouldn't be speculating in this difficult endeavor.  Seriously.  Do your own due diligence. Find your own edge that suits you.  Don't follow people blindly. Have a great week.

@undermysac

 I hear ya, but certainly  some of them gotta have some semblance of sophistication,insight as such.. it appears they r mostly in widespread agreement the times I watch. Same with the college game day guys.  I rarely see much deviation. In the group. Of recent interest Saban,McElroy and a few others there were all over Bama . Before that azz whooping. 

That program been averaging between 1.2- 1.5 million viewers this season. Certainly,none of those would place wagers w DK after hearing the " experts" pix would they. So many darn, unscrupulous agendas these days to separate folks from their hard earned cash.  Yes,always present, but seems to be more insidious in today's society.