barneybeans

Throwing my hat into the "record" ring 

0-0 + 0.0U

KC ML      +130  3U

KC    +2.5 -102  3U

Good to see you back Nerd! I'm on the Bucs today.

BOL Bro 

Off Da Bears this week? BOL Sac! 

Thanks Mac!

Not playing this because I ain't got the scratch to burn

So, this means it's a winner

Why take KC - the best bet I am not making today

BAL offense is dangerous but volatile and at time inconsistent, especially with Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability and he's got Derrick Henry, so a threat rushing and passing

BUT
Kansas City’s defense has been solid in keeping op total points low and only few big plays allowed

BUT
KC’s offense is weak ass, crappy starts, bad in the red zone and lower overall points output. Mahomes looks like he eating gummies week 1,2,3

BUT Finally, why KC: The BAL D has vulnerabilities, especially vs the run and they are letting up big plays. Message to KC's offense: "It's week 4, time to wake up!" 
BAL DT Madubuike is out, which will give Mahomes more time and their TE Isaiah Likely is questionable and probably not be 100% if he plays

Public and sharp squares are on BAL today. IMNSO

If I were a betting man I'd be 5U ea on KC today, ML and +2.5

OWO, yet another maniac on the NYG!

Today's smoke is Quai D'Orsay 52, going with a Glenmorangie Nectar D'Or

BOL OWO 

Not sure what you did either, so it must be a frame job. Bro, what cell you in and I'll send you a cake with a file baked in

Cancun has a team? 

Good Morning Gentlemen!

The "recent posts" is the most usable feature of this site, 2nd to the search function that was disabled about 10 years ago. Being able to use both is paramount, although we are now used to not being able to search Covers (a feature of every forum since 1995) - at least bring back the Recent Posts. Thank you.

Big Mac Attack!

KC -2.5 is my POD (that I am not betting)

And TB is my team, played them small. Glad we're on the same side?

But betting the NYG? Now that's down right deplorable!

Knock 'em dead 

@RUM151

 Great job by the way, you're rockin' 

A lot of people think the whole point of a sportsbook is to balance the action. The perception is that the house wants the exact same amount of money bet on both sides of a spread so they can just pocket the juice and never sweat a game. That’s sort of true for the neighborhood bookie who doesn’t have a lot of cash to float — he really can’t afford too much exposure to one game. His job is basically like a broker, matching buyers and sellers, not actually taking a position.

But when you’re talking about the big shops with plenty of money behind them? Different story. They don’t need a perfect 50/50 split. They just need enough money coming in on both sides.

Let’s say bettors put up $11,000 to win $10,000 on the favorite

Meanwhile, only $5,500 to win $5,000 comes in on the dog

If the underdog wins:

The book keeps the $11k from losing favorite bets

They pay out $5k to the dog bettors

That’s a $6,000 profit.

If the favorite wins:

The book keeps the $5,500 from the losing dog bets

They owe $10k to the favorite backers

That’s a $4,500 loss.

So basically, the house is risking $4,500 to win $6,000. They only need to “win” about 43% of the time to break even. Compare that to you and me, laying $110 to win $100 — the book is really only laying about $75 to win $100 (somebody check that math, please)

Put another way: if there’s twice as much money on one side as the other, the sportsbook is sitting on +133 odds no matter what. For us to clear $6,000, we’d have to risk $6,600. The house? They only put $4,500 at risk. That’s why the big books don’t panic if the action leans heavy one way — the math is still in their favor

 Lastly, dumb bettors after winning, will bet it all back, so sooner or later they're broke because of poor money management

Why take KC is the best bet I am not making today

Shrimp offense is dangerous but volatile and at time inconsistent, especially with Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability and he's got Derrick Henry, so a threat rushing and passing

BUT
Kansas City’s defense has been solid in keeping op total points low and only few big plays allowed

BUT
KC’s offense is weak ass, crappy starts, bad in the red zone and lower overall points output. Mahomes looks like he eating gummies week 1,2,3

BUT Finally, why KC: The Shrimp D has vulnerabilities, especially vs the run and they are letting up big plays. Message to KC's offense: "It's week 4, time to wake up! 
Shrimp DT Madubuike is out, which will give Mahomes more time and their TE Isaiah Likely is questionable and probably not be 100%"if he plays

Public and sharp squares are on BAL today. IMNSO

Gentlemen, and I use that term loosely - actually the word gentlemen doesn't even belong in this thread, but we can dream damnit, of a future with no overseas games clouding up a perfectly sunny Sunday in the north east of the USA...

Can't study, no time for sports analysis, or watching games and reading over stats, but that shouldn't deter any degenerate from making a few blind wagers.

Last NFL and this season I am up to very small straight wager or two and then a normal 1U bet on a super duper teaser = which is ridiculous alternate lines in my favor parlay between 3-7 teams - not really a teaser, me throwing alternate lines, crossing over 3, 7, 10, 14 in a super Wong parlay.

Today my straight wagers are

TB +3.5
BAL -2.5

BAL is a trap and I am falling for it hook like and sinker. "KC is not the same KC, can't find their bearing, blah, blah, blah" but I'm only betting chump change these days.

Serious money? I'd be betting the 5U ranch on KC today.

But these days NFL is just for fun.

The big parlay "Wong Teaser"

TB +14.5
BUF -2.5
CLE +22.5 (2pt conversion suspected)
IND/LAR UN 63.5
BAL +10.5
MIA +10.5
CIN +21.5
+129

Since I am not betting KC today, and strictly from a market, line and public perception perspective: Serious Bettors do yourself a favor and take KC.

Good to see you guys

Big Mac Attack! 

Nice work, buddy, lookin' to see who you like today 

Great job, knowing when to quit is more important then knowing when to play. 

Good Goin' Scorp 

Transfer portal ruined so much. Tourney is kind boring and predictable. Speaking from a non betting perspective.

Almost would rather watch Chloe Kitts and SC on the women's tourney. Not joking.