The Patriots in the 1H this year are 12-1 SU.
PS=16.15, PA=10.07, avg margin +6.08
At home:
6-1 SU, PS=17, PA=10.20, avg margin +8.15
Last 5:
5-0 SU, PS=19.20, PA=10.20, avg margin +9
The Bills in the 1H are 5-7-1 SU
PS=12.46, PA=13.46, avg margin -1.00
On the road:
2-4 SU, PS=10.83, PA=11.66, avg margin -0.83
Now for those who argue that the Patriots "have played no one". Is the Bills schedule really that much harder? Sagarin has the Pats schedule #32, and the Bills #28. It's the NFL and both teams have played 13 games against professional football teams. As a matter of fact, the common opponents between these 2 teams are plentiful.
Here's some 1H #'s comparing their common opponents.
Patriots 7-1 SU
PS=17.25, PA=11.75, avg margin +5.5
Bills 4-4-1 SU
PS=12.11, PA=12.77, avg margin -0.66
We know that they've already played each other in Buffalo. The Patriots won the 1H 6-3
Coaching. This is a big one for me.
Mike Vrabel after a bye in the 1H is 5-0-1 SU as a head coach of the Tennessee Titans(2018-2023).
PS=13.16, PA=5.00, avg margin +8.16
The tie was in 2018 as a rookie HC. He posted 2 shutouts. One of the games was vs Buffalo where McDermott was the coach, and Josh Allen was the qb. Vrabel won 21-10.
I've been reading and looking up a lot of Josh McDaniels stuff lately. Don't laugh(you can if you want), but I'm finding a lot of parallels between Drake Maye and Tom Brady. And there's one guy in the equation who is the common denominator, their OC.
McDaniels was the qb coach simultaneously while the offensive coordinator with the Pats for years. Should we question the results of the Patriots dynasty at this point? Sure he failed with the Broncos and Raiders as the HC, but he's right back where it all started, where he's comfortable in a roll that he's good at.
I looked up all the Patriots 1H #'s following a bye week while McDaniels was the OC.
7-5-1 SU, PS=14.07
3 losses were vs very good non conference playoff teams. The 2013 Panthers, scored only 3. The 2016 Seahawks legion of boom, scored 14. And the 2019 Eagles scoring only 9, losing 9-10. They lost in 2020 and 2021 where the Belichick era was dissolving. Tom Brady moved on to Tampa and the Patriots turned to Cam Newton, Jared Stidham, Brian Hoyer, and rookie Mac Jones in 2021.
What McDaniels has now in 2nd year Drake Maye is something special, and it's something new. With a HC who also has new life, who should of never been fired from the Titans imo.
Good Luck guys 
Thanks guys, gonna need it.
Here's the dvoa podcast, just started it this morning. They talk about Bills/Pats at the 16:38 mark.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-schatz-tanier-nfl-podcast/id1706356164
I like that the nfl network replays games before a rematch.
Just got done watching the 1H vs the Bills and Pats game. Hunter Henry dropped a perfect td pass right before the close of the half. The Pats were lucky to have 1 second left on the clock.
Could of been a 10-3 half, instead 6-3. Or if it took just one second longer, it's a 3-3 tie.
I ran all the #'s for the 2H of this game. Be prepared for a tale of two halves my friends. Hopefully this info will help you all formulate a plan on how to attack this game.
Pats 7-3-3 SU
PS=10.84, PA=8.46, avg margin +2.38
Pats at Home 3-3-1 SU
PS=9.42, PA=8.14, avg margin +1.28
Pats L5 3-2 SU
PS=8.40, PA=8.80, avg margin -0.40
Common opponents 6-1-2 SU
PS=11.55, PA=8.00, avg margin +3.55
The Bills are the #1 2H team in the NFL by my wonky power rankings. And I do use an abacus when I do this, so beware:
Bills 9-2-2 SU
PS=16.46, PA=9.23, avg margin +7.23
Bills Away 4-1-1 SU
PS=12.82, PA=5.50, avg margin +7.33
Bills L5 3-1-1 SU
PS=18.00, PA=8.40, ang margin +9.60
Common Opponents 8-1 SU
PS=17.66, PA=7.88, avg margin +9.78
When both teams met in week 5, they tied the 2H 17-17
I'm gonna shop around for some 2H lines right now, I'll surely get a good # on the Bills. And I'm definitely not waiting till halftime, where the events of the 1H will poison my mind.
Good Luck
Bills 2H ML(-125) *1.25/1.00
Bills 2H -1.5(+105) *1.00/1.05
At DK, splitting em up like this. A hedge of sorts, but not really. I just have to pray that the halves don't flip flop on me, then I'm in the poor house.
Multiple outcomes here. I have 2 bets in that can push. Hoping for the best ofcourse.
Good Luck
Sounds tempting, but there's a reason the odds offered are so high. In the NFL, the team that wins the 1H, wins the game roughly 78% of the time.
But if there's anyone good at comebacks, it's certainly Josh Alllen. They've lost the 1H vs the Bengals and Steelers in their last 2 games, and won those games outright. They've also done this to Tampa and Baltimore this year.
3rd road game in 4 weeks, it would be tough if they're down at half again. That "if" scares the shit out of me.
Gonna be a great game
Thanks for taking the time to rewatch, dig, and give your insight.
Might as well throw .50 at the Pats/Bills prop. Good value. You seem confident making a large play on Pats FH.. Then the fact your throwing money at Bills 2H.
Thanks again for the thread. I hope you nail them both. Ill def be watching. .
JGiles
Established in 1995,
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