I went Chiefs +2.5 and Chiefs ML each for a unit. One thing I don’t like is KC was really on a roll….really out there grinding and winning and that was before the real playoffs even started. This week off might…..disrupt that.
Besides that, I like the chiefs in every way. I like how chiefs offense matches up with the niner D. Especially the last 5-6 games where they have been horrid. Only the mighty Redskins afforded the niners D a game like people perceive them.
Another perception was the AFC was much deeper, but the TOP of the NFC was the real standouts……and we see what came of the Eagles and Cowboys. We see this hideous lions D giving up 450 yards every game. IMO seeing the reality of the NFC is another perception that I think was shattered in just the last couple weeks.
Chiefs D…..yea SF can probably run on them if they truly come out to pound the rock 40/50x…..but I just don’t think they will. On the other side though, we will see KC run the ball and control things. Like most of the playoffs, I think we see an efficient chiefs offense.
I think they get a lead and nurse it home. SF lives on big plays. We watched them week after week pop off these giant game changing plays and I don’t think this Spagonola D allows it. All year they have been great at avoiding those damaging big plays, and I think they do the same Sunday.
Two good coaches so I think it will be one of those shortened kind of games. 21-17 or 20-14 or 24-21. Two very good well coached teams doing what they do. Limited possessions and all that.
That’s my 2 cents. Enjoy the game, win or lose. This was a great year and I don’t want it to end…….gonna be agony until Sept 5th.
I went Chiefs +2.5 and Chiefs ML each for a unit. One thing I don’t like is KC was really on a roll….really out there grinding and winning and that was before the real playoffs even started. This week off might…..disrupt that.
Besides that, I like the chiefs in every way. I like how chiefs offense matches up with the niner D. Especially the last 5-6 games where they have been horrid. Only the mighty Redskins afforded the niners D a game like people perceive them.
Another perception was the AFC was much deeper, but the TOP of the NFC was the real standouts……and we see what came of the Eagles and Cowboys. We see this hideous lions D giving up 450 yards every game. IMO seeing the reality of the NFC is another perception that I think was shattered in just the last couple weeks.
Chiefs D…..yea SF can probably run on them if they truly come out to pound the rock 40/50x…..but I just don’t think they will. On the other side though, we will see KC run the ball and control things. Like most of the playoffs, I think we see an efficient chiefs offense.
I think they get a lead and nurse it home. SF lives on big plays. We watched them week after week pop off these giant game changing plays and I don’t think this Spagonola D allows it. All year they have been great at avoiding those damaging big plays, and I think they do the same Sunday.
Two good coaches so I think it will be one of those shortened kind of games. 21-17 or 20-14 or 24-21. Two very good well coached teams doing what they do. Limited possessions and all that.
That’s my 2 cents. Enjoy the game, win or lose. This was a great year and I don’t want it to end…….gonna be agony until Sept 5th.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic: @vanzack Am I ok u ask ? Are you a doctor also ? Is that another field u specialize in ? I’m not the one who thinks a 49 yard fg is a chip shot , u are , lol I’m not the one who doesn’t know what side of the 50 the team with the ball is on , u are , lol I’m not the one who says it’s 4th and 4 with 4 plus on the clock and criticizes a super bowl coaches punt call Meanwhile it’s really 4th and 14 ! Lol Im just fine ! Have a beautiful day SPECIALIST ! I am not your doc, but maybe talk to your doc about doubling your prozac? Jdmoney said the guy has dementia. The admitted to him he is in his 70s and sometimes not the best with his mind
Oh ya I have dementia !
Sf pyjama boy says so ! JD NO MONEY is my broke doc !
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic: @vanzack Am I ok u ask ? Are you a doctor also ? Is that another field u specialize in ? I’m not the one who thinks a 49 yard fg is a chip shot , u are , lol I’m not the one who doesn’t know what side of the 50 the team with the ball is on , u are , lol I’m not the one who says it’s 4th and 4 with 4 plus on the clock and criticizes a super bowl coaches punt call Meanwhile it’s really 4th and 14 ! Lol Im just fine ! Have a beautiful day SPECIALIST ! I am not your doc, but maybe talk to your doc about doubling your prozac? Jdmoney said the guy has dementia. The admitted to him he is in his 70s and sometimes not the best with his mind
Oh ya I have dementia !
Sf pyjama boy says so ! JD NO MONEY is my broke doc !
I went Chiefs +2.5 and Chiefs ML each for a unit. One thing I don’t like is KC was really on a roll….really out there grinding and winning and that was before the real playoffs even started. This week off might…..disrupt that.
"On a roll"?......they finished the season with a 2-3 record before a meaningless season finale against LA.
I went Chiefs +2.5 and Chiefs ML each for a unit. One thing I don’t like is KC was really on a roll….really out there grinding and winning and that was before the real playoffs even started. This week off might…..disrupt that.
"On a roll"?......they finished the season with a 2-3 record before a meaningless season finale against LA.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic: @vanzack Am I ok u ask ? Are you a doctor also ? Is that another field u specialize in ? I’m not the one who thinks a 49 yard fg is a chip shot , u are , lol I’m not the one who doesn’t know what side of the 50 the team with the ball is on , u are , lol I’m not the one who says it’s 4th and 4 with 4 plus on the clock and criticizes a super bowl coaches punt call Meanwhile it’s really 4th and 14 ! Lol Im just fine ! Have a beautiful day SPECIALIST ! I am not your doc, but maybe talk to your doc about doubling your prozac? Jdmoney said the guy has dementia. The admitted to him he is in his 70s and sometimes not the best with his mind
I have the ball , what side of the 50 am I standing on ?
is it 4 th and 4 ?
4th and 14 ? 4th and 44 ? Or 4th and 404 ?
Why are so many 49 yard fg chip shots missed ? How is this possible ? I mean their chip shots ! Easy !
why isn’t the other team calling a timeout when I kneel 3 straight times first ? Did they forget to ?
I must be losing my mind , better go see a specialist that specializes in mind health
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic: @vanzack Am I ok u ask ? Are you a doctor also ? Is that another field u specialize in ? I’m not the one who thinks a 49 yard fg is a chip shot , u are , lol I’m not the one who doesn’t know what side of the 50 the team with the ball is on , u are , lol I’m not the one who says it’s 4th and 4 with 4 plus on the clock and criticizes a super bowl coaches punt call Meanwhile it’s really 4th and 14 ! Lol Im just fine ! Have a beautiful day SPECIALIST ! I am not your doc, but maybe talk to your doc about doubling your prozac? Jdmoney said the guy has dementia. The admitted to him he is in his 70s and sometimes not the best with his mind
I have the ball , what side of the 50 am I standing on ?
is it 4 th and 4 ?
4th and 14 ? 4th and 44 ? Or 4th and 404 ?
Why are so many 49 yard fg chip shots missed ? How is this possible ? I mean their chip shots ! Easy !
why isn’t the other team calling a timeout when I kneel 3 straight times first ? Did they forget to ?
I must be losing my mind , better go see a specialist that specializes in mind health
Can vanzack have one thread without one of you fucking morons filling it with garbage? Now everyone that wants to come in and read what he has to say has to sift through your bullshit. Stop being selfish. The world does not revolve around you.
Can vanzack have one thread without one of you fucking morons filling it with garbage? Now everyone that wants to come in and read what he has to say has to sift through your bullshit. Stop being selfish. The world does not revolve around you.
Also... Props... I have largely ignored props for years because of low limits. In relation to my unit size, I cant get enough down on props to make it worth my time. But at the encouragement of several of my respected buddies in the gambling space - I took another look... And while I still haven't jumped ship yet - I am getting closer (maybe next year). One note... Almost every edge I have identified lies in two areas: unders and big favorites Will an onsides kick be recovered at -40-1 is just crazy value. Yes, you have to lay 40 to win 1, but it should be priced closer to 300-1. There was 1 onsides kick recovered this season. There are a lot of props similarly priced with value. The average guy wants to bet small and win big. They dont want to bet big and win small. They also bet overs. Player overs, yard overs, FG overs - every over. Just some observations. GL
There was only 1 recovered last season out of 31 attempts. I read that its 3.2 percent chance. The new kickoff rule killed success rate. Average kickoffs for a team is around 5 so I averaged around 1,360 total kick offs this year. I think there is better chance at the surprise than having hands team ready. 2 onside kicks in Super Bowl. Both were surprises and both converted but way before newest rule.
Also... Props... I have largely ignored props for years because of low limits. In relation to my unit size, I cant get enough down on props to make it worth my time. But at the encouragement of several of my respected buddies in the gambling space - I took another look... And while I still haven't jumped ship yet - I am getting closer (maybe next year). One note... Almost every edge I have identified lies in two areas: unders and big favorites Will an onsides kick be recovered at -40-1 is just crazy value. Yes, you have to lay 40 to win 1, but it should be priced closer to 300-1. There was 1 onsides kick recovered this season. There are a lot of props similarly priced with value. The average guy wants to bet small and win big. They dont want to bet big and win small. They also bet overs. Player overs, yard overs, FG overs - every over. Just some observations. GL
There was only 1 recovered last season out of 31 attempts. I read that its 3.2 percent chance. The new kickoff rule killed success rate. Average kickoffs for a team is around 5 so I averaged around 1,360 total kick offs this year. I think there is better chance at the surprise than having hands team ready. 2 onside kicks in Super Bowl. Both were surprises and both converted but way before newest rule.
van, how do you think it goes? i like the under here. both teams should move the ball some. then punt from the 45 a few times. KC has a definite edge on special teams.
van, how do you think it goes? i like the under here. both teams should move the ball some. then punt from the 45 a few times. KC has a definite edge on special teams.
Triggered because he mocked your phoney baloney units? Man, I feel bad for guys like you. Imagine getting so triggered by a stranger on the internet for mocking your make believe bets....then to spend your entire day pulling up old threads to whine on... .sad little man.
Triggered because he mocked your phoney baloney units? Man, I feel bad for guys like you. Imagine getting so triggered by a stranger on the internet for mocking your make believe bets....then to spend your entire day pulling up old threads to whine on... .sad little man.
The two reasons people are betting KC is #1 because “its Mahomes” even on a down year which no one wants to admit.. I get it.. #2 which is the mostly likely reason of the two is your betting on Spags defense.. if you are looking past all the offensive stats San Francisco has put up this year Brock has put up then you are obviously counting on Brock not being able to succeed against this chiefs defense.. both teams have been flawed if you take a look and have an unbiased opinion.. San Francisco had the 3 game skid which turned people away.. which losses were worse ? San Francisco’s or Kansas City chiefs?
Spags will definitely blitz Brock Purdy.. but on plays where Brock Purdy was blitz this season he had a rate of 0.42 expected points added per play.. highest EPA per play against the blitz of any quarterback in the league and also had a higher depth of targets on plays where he was blitz rather then plays where he was not.. which is not normal it’s rare to see this.. so he’s not only making plays he’s making big plays when he’s blitzed.. chiefs are 27th in DVOA against the run.. McCaffrey anyone..
Yes San Francisco gave up a lot of rush yards to Jones, Montgomery and Gibbs.. which Pacheco can definitely have a chance to take advantage of which I doubt considering they have had back to back running backs run on them so it most likely will be a point of emphasis defensively.. but the way Wilks runs his defense I would not be shocked if they give up yards between the 20s and buckle down in the redzone.. KC has redzone issues..
San Francisco 49ers were the better team throughout the season compared to Kansas City Chiefs and that’s not a lie the only reason everyone jumped off the wagon was because of there slow starts in the playoffs but they fought through adversity which they did not do the entire season.. perfect time to do it and that is why they are in the Super Bowl..to me on a neutral field San Francisco should be favored by 4 points Obviously it’s scary betting against Mahomes but this line hasn’t budged and everyone is throwing money on KC.. just seems strange
Everyone points out San Francisco 49ers losses but not one person mentions the terrible losses the Kansas City chiefs had during the regular season.. 15 point loss to the broncos in week 8… or the embarrassing home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day.. they also lost to Greenbay 19-27…. 3-5 over 9 week stretch..
Chiefs have looked good coming into the playoffs against Miami literally with zero defense banged up offensively too then versus Buffalo against there banged up defense and Buffalo shooting themselves in the foot.. then the Ravens who played the dumbest game of there lives abandoning the run the entire game even though the chiefs are 27th DVOA against the run.. just dumb.. quality of opponents hasn’t been great going down the stretch for KC.. same goes for San Francisco 49ers in there last two..both teams are flawed
One thing that stands out to me is San Francisco played poorly against Greenbay and Detroit defensively but those two offenses are better than the Kansas City chiefs offense in my opinion.. both Love and Goff had really good offensive stats and playmakers.. apologies for the rant last game of the year..
The two reasons people are betting KC is #1 because “its Mahomes” even on a down year which no one wants to admit.. I get it.. #2 which is the mostly likely reason of the two is your betting on Spags defense.. if you are looking past all the offensive stats San Francisco has put up this year Brock has put up then you are obviously counting on Brock not being able to succeed against this chiefs defense.. both teams have been flawed if you take a look and have an unbiased opinion.. San Francisco had the 3 game skid which turned people away.. which losses were worse ? San Francisco’s or Kansas City chiefs?
Spags will definitely blitz Brock Purdy.. but on plays where Brock Purdy was blitz this season he had a rate of 0.42 expected points added per play.. highest EPA per play against the blitz of any quarterback in the league and also had a higher depth of targets on plays where he was blitz rather then plays where he was not.. which is not normal it’s rare to see this.. so he’s not only making plays he’s making big plays when he’s blitzed.. chiefs are 27th in DVOA against the run.. McCaffrey anyone..
Yes San Francisco gave up a lot of rush yards to Jones, Montgomery and Gibbs.. which Pacheco can definitely have a chance to take advantage of which I doubt considering they have had back to back running backs run on them so it most likely will be a point of emphasis defensively.. but the way Wilks runs his defense I would not be shocked if they give up yards between the 20s and buckle down in the redzone.. KC has redzone issues..
San Francisco 49ers were the better team throughout the season compared to Kansas City Chiefs and that’s not a lie the only reason everyone jumped off the wagon was because of there slow starts in the playoffs but they fought through adversity which they did not do the entire season.. perfect time to do it and that is why they are in the Super Bowl..to me on a neutral field San Francisco should be favored by 4 points Obviously it’s scary betting against Mahomes but this line hasn’t budged and everyone is throwing money on KC.. just seems strange
Everyone points out San Francisco 49ers losses but not one person mentions the terrible losses the Kansas City chiefs had during the regular season.. 15 point loss to the broncos in week 8… or the embarrassing home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day.. they also lost to Greenbay 19-27…. 3-5 over 9 week stretch..
Chiefs have looked good coming into the playoffs against Miami literally with zero defense banged up offensively too then versus Buffalo against there banged up defense and Buffalo shooting themselves in the foot.. then the Ravens who played the dumbest game of there lives abandoning the run the entire game even though the chiefs are 27th DVOA against the run.. just dumb.. quality of opponents hasn’t been great going down the stretch for KC.. same goes for San Francisco 49ers in there last two..both teams are flawed
One thing that stands out to me is San Francisco played poorly against Greenbay and Detroit defensively but those two offenses are better than the Kansas City chiefs offense in my opinion.. both Love and Goff had really good offensive stats and playmakers.. apologies for the rant last game of the year..
Agree not a game to lay your bonus but some will. Should be a close game but can also see Chiefs start faster and win by 5+. The trend is your friend and the Niners shouldn’t be in this game. Whereas the Chiefs are playing their best football NOW just like what you want to see from the NCAA and WS teams before they become champs.
Agree not a game to lay your bonus but some will. Should be a close game but can also see Chiefs start faster and win by 5+. The trend is your friend and the Niners shouldn’t be in this game. Whereas the Chiefs are playing their best football NOW just like what you want to see from the NCAA and WS teams before they become champs.
NFL Regular Season Record: +64.75 units NFL Playoffs Record: 7-5, +6.0 units Niners -2 (2 units) Short and sweet.... Not much of an edge here. Makes my playoff criteria for a bet but probably wouldnt during the regular season. I do think the line will move to 1.5 or 1 closer to gametime - but wanted to get this up now. I realize this is not the sexy thing to post - with 500 unit wagers and other posters all but guaranteeing their firstborn - but you will always get the straight shot from me. This just isnt a game to go nuts on for me. Happy to discuss. GL all - great season. Looking forward to the Euros in June!
NFL Regular Season Record: +64.75 units NFL Playoffs Record: 7-5, +6.0 units Niners -2 (2 units) Short and sweet.... Not much of an edge here. Makes my playoff criteria for a bet but probably wouldnt during the regular season. I do think the line will move to 1.5 or 1 closer to gametime - but wanted to get this up now. I realize this is not the sexy thing to post - with 500 unit wagers and other posters all but guaranteeing their firstborn - but you will always get the straight shot from me. This just isnt a game to go nuts on for me. Happy to discuss. GL all - great season. Looking forward to the Euros in June!
Fantastic Post.. Van, why the UNDER..it's boring...if both of these teams struggle to Run the Rock, they're Definitely going arieal Especially Inside at Allegient Stadium....Love all the offensive Overs on player props..Juice, Watson, Gray,good value on many player props..gotta dig to Find Value..it's there if anyone can unearth it....even Deebo over 78' yards R & Rec.....
Mahomes goes 2-2 in SB starts..Love CMC for MVP..Good Luck Thanks for ALL you contribute here at Cova's
Fantastic Post.. Van, why the UNDER..it's boring...if both of these teams struggle to Run the Rock, they're Definitely going arieal Especially Inside at Allegient Stadium....Love all the offensive Overs on player props..Juice, Watson, Gray,good value on many player props..gotta dig to Find Value..it's there if anyone can unearth it....even Deebo over 78' yards R & Rec.....
Mahomes goes 2-2 in SB starts..Love CMC for MVP..Good Luck Thanks for ALL you contribute here at Cova's
@vanzack Hey van, Couple questions- what do you think of the line and where do you have it? Using a few different methods I have San Fran as the favorite at 3 different numbers- SF-1, SF-3.6, SF-5.2. Averaging out to around SF -3.25 so possibly a no play or small play for me. Just curious to see how you came around to making it a worthy play. Also- score prediction? Great season thanks for always helping out around here!
I fully realize that the "pussifaction" of the NFL is a term that angers some, but the kickoff rule changes represent this as much as any QB protection infraction the rules committee has implemented to satisfy the media.
I ask why,,,,,,,WHY did the onsides kick rule get changed? If i remember correctly one player got severely injured on an outlier play. Damn too bad, a freak accident. Instead, the knee jerk reactions from the rules committee bent the knee to the media it's disgusting.
Why not just eliminate the onsides kick altogether, and just call the game w/ whoever is ahead by more than 8 pts going into the last 2 minutes. Seriously,, for 70 years, the onside kick an acceptable, 5 to 10 percent chance of success, it was a true and fair opportunity to have a chance.... and now, it's just a lottery ticket.
@vanzack Hey van, Couple questions- what do you think of the line and where do you have it? Using a few different methods I have San Fran as the favorite at 3 different numbers- SF-1, SF-3.6, SF-5.2. Averaging out to around SF -3.25 so possibly a no play or small play for me. Just curious to see how you came around to making it a worthy play. Also- score prediction? Great season thanks for always helping out around here!
I fully realize that the "pussifaction" of the NFL is a term that angers some, but the kickoff rule changes represent this as much as any QB protection infraction the rules committee has implemented to satisfy the media.
I ask why,,,,,,,WHY did the onsides kick rule get changed? If i remember correctly one player got severely injured on an outlier play. Damn too bad, a freak accident. Instead, the knee jerk reactions from the rules committee bent the knee to the media it's disgusting.
Why not just eliminate the onsides kick altogether, and just call the game w/ whoever is ahead by more than 8 pts going into the last 2 minutes. Seriously,, for 70 years, the onside kick an acceptable, 5 to 10 percent chance of success, it was a true and fair opportunity to have a chance.... and now, it's just a lottery ticket.
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on your plays 
me 2 baby
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