POD - pirates under 7 -115 - 22.5 units
Hunter greene pitches tonight in a huge game the reds need to have. He is coming off a complete game 1 hitter and has been phenomenal in 3 of 4 games allowing 1 run or less. Pirates hit 203 against him with 22 strikeouts in 69 abs. In his only start against them this year he held them to 2 hits in 7 innings with 8 strikeouts in A 4-0 reds win. Skenes goes for pirates and he has struck out reds 27 times in 63 abs holding them to 222 avg. He held them to 7 hits in 6 innings in a 7-0 pirates win. I expect him to be sharp in his last start tonight. Pitchers duel for me here so under 7 I go
BC,
I always find it crazy when i see good cappers like you playing home teams on the run lines, because its really one of the worst bets in baseball. Theres 2 things that are going against you. 1st if you have a 1 run lead, your team aint batting in the 9th, which is huge because you are losing 3 outs of batting. 2nd thing if your tied and go to extra innings, chances are high the home team isnt gonna cover the minus 1.5 runs, unless a home run is hit with a man on. The home team is just playing to get that 1 run in not 2.
Playing the road team favorite on the run line is okay, cause they will get all 9 innings of batting.
Us bettors need the odds in our favor, not give it up to books and help them even more.
Just my 2 cents from doing this crap way too long lollll
@cd329
But don’t you think the oddsmakers have already factored that into the line? Or Did you think you are the only one on Earth to have this epiphany lol. It is all baked into the number, I guarantee you if there was value to be had, someone much smarter than you and with more money/resources than you would have bet it until the number is lower and value gone. Or you can just bet the runline on the road team yourself if you think there’s value there.. just my 2 cents from doing this crap every day and winning lol
did i say to bet every road team on the run line? Sure the oddsmakers have the odds baked in, that doesnt change the fact that when the home team has a 1 run lead after 8, they dont get those extra 3 outs and going to extra inngs also reduces your chances of winning by 2. also i didnt say am the only person that thought this and am FRIENDS with BC and he will know that wasnt some type of bash on him
Thanks for stopping by troll and i hope you keep on winning everyday like you say
WHITE SOX FINISH TO GAME YESTERDAY……I stopped paying attention to baseball at all star break… barely paying attention these days…. but I do have small wager on Yankees season total under… so I’ve been peeking at them a bit… so last night following on espn gamecast. Last 2 innings… and the chi white Sox were simply too pitiful to win the game… their pitching was soo inept… the Yankees had no choice but to score a few runs…. It was bad news bears ish….. if this were your little league team boxscore… you would say … alright guys… we’ve got plenty to work on…….. and they would have tripped over their feet to head out to the ballfield….. just like the white Sox.
@cd329
This is a very good point and I mostly agree.
But like the guy pointed out there are times you can find +EV because of the oddsmakers knowing this but the team’s performance on the RL (in totality and home/away/lately) will make it worthwhile to play.
A lot of folks will do this to simply ‘try to overcome’ the ML juice on a huge home favorite. You are correct that this is usually a BIG mistake. Because you are normally betting into -EV instead of +EV.
For example, folks would assume the NYY and SEA games would be correct to try this today because they are huge favorites at home.
BUT you have to overcome the 28% that is about what the normal MLB game will end in a 1-run game. Then you have to overcome the normal favorite winning at 59%. THEN you have to overcome that the normal home favorite will win by 2 or more runs only 39% of the time.
THEN you have to consider the total. If it is a lower total then runs are going to be at a premium. This also makes it harder to cover a home favorite RL.
BUT, as with everything there are exceptions and +EV to be found.
The DET/CLV is one that is very interesting.
This is one where you look to be betting into +EV and it would be profitable to almost blindly do it EVEN if the ML has great odds. Because the ROI longterm on the RL would pay more than simply playing the ML would.
For the season on the RL:
CLV 85-70 +6.15U +2.9% ROI
DET 72-85 -18.85U -9.77% ROI
For the season at home:
CLV 36-39 -5.55U -5.75% ROI
For the season away:
DET 32-44 -17.4U -18.3% ROI
L10 games:
CLV 8-2 +7U +53.85% ROI
DET 1-9 -8U -78.45% ROI
L10 games at home:
CLV 7-3 +4.1U +29.93% ROI
L10 games away:
DET 5-5 -.1U -.87% ROI
L10 head-head
CLV 8-2 on the RL
Including 3-1 in the last 4 at home
@cd329
Of course all of that being said, there are many other things to take into consider. Pitching, desperation mode or motivation, regression, etc., etc.
Like tonight, I am not so sure of this one. But the odds seem to be in favor if you simply look at the numbers and multiply them out and look at it just that way.
Very great post,outstanding job
My thinking on this though is, I would prefer having those 3 extra outs then the odds the oddsmaker is going to give me, cause they aren't going to give us what those 3 extra outs are worth. I believe to play the home team run line you got to get them minus 1 and not minus 1.5.. you need to play at a book that will give out 1 run lines or use calculator to create a minus 1 run.
Once again I appreciate your very detailed post
@cd329
My thinking on this though is, I would prefer having those 3 extra outs then the odds the oddsmaker is going to give me, cause they aren't going to give us what those 3 extra outs are worth. I believe to play the home team run line you got to get them minus 1 and not minus 1.5.. you need to play at a book that will give out 1 run lines or use calculator to create a minus 1 run.
I agree that is it usually a losing longterm play. Because of all you point out.
I am just saying if you find an exception that is actually a value play it is worth it as a play if you were able to play it over and over. In other words, if you play a normal home favorite RL over 100 games you will lose money. However, if you find one of these plays that should be +EV value and you play it over 100 games you will make money.
Because most people will avoid these plays just because of the reasons you point out.
@cd329
Maybe I did not explain that well enough.
I am saying that there are times when the math is in your favor to make the play and will outweigh the 'extra 3 outs' that you get.
Therefore, in that situation the value is in your favor that the home favorite will already have enough of a lead in the 9th inning that the road dog will not overcome it.
You should have an edge over a long period in these cases.
If these qualifications are not there, then your edge is with taking the dog or simply no play.
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