Caitlin Clark Player Props Picks: The Ire of the Defense

All eyes will be on Caitlin Clark when the WNBA season gets underway on May 14. Our WNBA expert Jason Logan has combed through the markets and has found three great player props that will keep your eyes glued to Clark's rookie season. Find out more below!

Senior Betting Analyst
May 14, 2024 • 12:07 ET • 4 min read
Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA got its first look at No. 1 overall pick Caitlin Clark last Friday when the Indiana Fever opened exhibition play against the Dallas Wings.

Clark didn’t disappoint, making her first two shots of the game – both 3-pointers – and scoring 16 points in the first half, before finishing with 21 points on 6-of-15 shooting (5 of 13 from 3-point range). She also added three rebounds, two assists, and two steals (along with five turnovers) in her 28 minutes of action.

While it’s tough to put stock in preseason results, Clark’s pro debut was impressive. Indiana has one more exhibition game, versus the Atlanta Dream on Thursday, before its much-anticipated season opener against the Connecticut Sun on May 14.

Ahead of that contest, sportsbooks are offering WNBA odds on Caitlin Clark’s rookie season (in which she’s -700 to win Rookie of the Year), setting markets on everything from her statistical output to her chances of shattering league records in points and 3-pointers made.

Here are my best WNBA picks and predictions when it comes to betting the Caitlin Clark odds, where you can also get a complete breakdown of Clark markets from leading sportsbooks — and see our best Caitlin Clark prop for her WNBA debut!

Caitlin Clark player prop odds

Caitlin Clark To Average 22+ Points

Twenty-two points per game doesn’t sound like much when measured against Caitlin Clark’s output at Iowa. Hell, she’d hang that in a half some nights. When it comes to the WNBA, however, 22-point seasons are rare air. 

Between 2010 and 2022, only six players averaged 22-plus points per game. Last year marked a significant swing in scoring, featuring three stars posting an average of 22 or more: Jewel Loyd (24.7), Breanna Stewart (23.0), and A’Ja Wilson (22.8). 

The opportunity is there for Clark to threaten this Over/Under, given her 3-point prowess and role in Indiana’s offense. She’ll get plenty of touches as there’s not much firepower beyond Clark and second-year center Aliyah Boston. But asking for 22-plus is still a stretch.

Looking at 2023’s top scorers, all three came from offenses ranked Top 5 in pace per 40 minutes. Loyd was the lone gun on a shallow Seattle team, averaging more than 20 shots, while Stewart and Wilson played on stacked lineups that kept defenses honest in terms of double teams and attention.

In Year 1 under head coach Christie Sides, the Fever ran the second-slowest offensive tempo in the WNBA. That’s expected to tick up in 2024, but as Sides alluded to after Friday’s preseason debut, opponents will sell out on stopping Clark with aggressive defense and double teams.

This prop is available across different sportsbooks, with some operators offering two-way Yes/No action and others selling a solo prop on the Over 22+ as high as -160. Twenty-two points is a big ask for a rookie who will draw the ire of the defense each and every night.

Pick: No (+105 at bet365)

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Caitlin Clark To Average 6.3 Assists

Clark brings more than deadeye shooting to Indiana, including her playmaking and court vision. She averaged more than eight assists during her tenure in Iowa and sportsbooks have her assist prop sitting at 6.3 O/U for her WNBA rookie campaign.

Clark will log the minutes and handle the ball enough to display her passing prowess, but this assist prop is a tall order – even more than topping 22 points per game.

There were six players that averaged six or more assists in 2023 and only four of those tallied 6.3 dimes per contest: Courtney Vandersloot (8.1), Alyssa Thomas (7.9), Chelsea Gray (7.3), and Courtney Williams (6.3).

Not only does Indiana run a much slower tempo than Clark is used to, but Christie Side’s offense finished dead last in assist-to-FG ratio in 2023. That will undoubtedly go up in 2024, but it will be the likes of Erica Wheeler and Kelsey Mitchell seeing their assists spike thanks to Clark’s shooting.

With defenses collapsing on Clark and making her put the ball on the ground, she will have windows to make plays with her passes. But Indiana didn’t draft her to be a traditional point guard and it’s unreasonable to think she’ll average more than 6.3 assists when she’s attempting close to 20 shots per game.

Pick: Under 6.3 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Caitlin Clark To Record 130+ Total Made 3-Pointers

The math says Clark has to hit at least 3.25 triples per outing over 40 games to make 130 total 3-pointers on the season. Given the trajectory of the 3-ball in the WNBA landscape and the Fever’s likely game scripts in 2024, Clark will absolutely get her chances to top this prop.

The 3-pointer has been on the rise in the WNBA since 2018 and the 2023 campaign tied 2022 for a high of 7.7 average made triples from teams per game. This aligns with what we’ve seen in the NBA, with analytics prioritizing the 3-point shot above everything but a layup.

Last year, New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu finished with a record 128 3-pointers in 36 regular season games (3.55 per contest). That broke Diana Taurasi’s 2006 mark of 121 3-pointers, which came under Paul Westhead’s infamous up-tempo system.

Ionescu, who shot 44.5% from beyond the arc, posted those record numbers on a Liberty roster loaded with stars, who demanded touches but also played with the lead most nights. There was far less urgency for Ionescu to take and make 3-pointers.

If we look at Dallas’ Arike Ogunbowale and Seattle’s Jewel Loyd, they led the league in 3-point attempts in 2023 (341 and 323 respectively) as the top offensive option for their teams – not sharing the ball like Sabrina. Ogunbowale and Loyd finished with 117 and 115 made triples on 39.8 and 37% shooting. 

Given that Clark will play a similar starring role for an Indiana team projected to sit around .500 and knowing her volume from downtown (she shot 13 in the preseason opener), it’s no stretch to see her launch close to 400 attempts from 3-point land this season. 

Based on her outside shooting success at Iowa, Clark is expected to connect on 38% of those long-range looks. That trickles down to 152 made 3-pointers on the high end (should she play all 40 games) and 137 makes from distance if she plays 36 games like Ionescu last season.

Pick: Yes (-110 at FanDuel)

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