UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Picks and Predictions: Who Has Edge in Headlining Fight?

Headlining UFC Fight Night is a bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. While our UFC betting picks are expecting this fight to prove tough for both fighters — potentially even going the distance — Tsarukyan should be the one to claim victory.

Last Updated: Jun 25, 2022 8:55 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight.

This should be a terrific tilt between two of the fastest-rising fighters in the lightweight division. UFC odds hit the board with Tsarukyan installed as a -140 favorite and he has since grown to -250 with Gamrot coming back at +200.

Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot picks and predictions for June 25 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot method of victory odds

Method of Victory Arman Tsarukyan Mateusz Gamrot
To win by KO/TKO +290 +650
To win by Points +160 +500
To win by Submission +460 +1,100
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 25, 2022.

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Tsarukyan vs Gamrot betting preview

Arman Tsarukyan is the No. 11-ranked lightweight contender and is on a five-fight winning streak. In his last two bouts, he earned Performance of the Night bonuses after knocking out Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez. 

The 25-year-old is one of the brightest young talents in the MMA scene and his only defeat in the octagon came in his promotional debut against Islam Makhachev in 2019. That loss has aged extremely well when you consider that Makhachev is poised for a title shot and that Tsarukyan was able to go the distance and earn a Fight of the Night bonus for his efforts. 

Tsarukyan is a very well-rounded fighter that combines high-level wrestling and top control with improving Muay Thai ability.

Mateusz Gamrot lost a close split-decision that earned Fight of the Night honors in his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze in 2020. Since then, he has reeled off three straight stoppage wins, most recently defeating Carlos Diego Ferreira via TKO last December. 

The 31-year-old Gamrot was the KSW double champion at featherweight and lightweight and had gone a perfect 17-0 in his MMA career prior to entering the UFC.

As a two-time ADCC European Champion in submission wrestling, Gamrot is an elite grappler who loves to work in level changes. He also has very crisp technical boxing ability with good footwork out of his southpaw stance.

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot tale of the tape

Arman Tsarukyan   Mateusz Gamrot
25 Age 31
5-foot-7 Height 5-foot-10
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
72 inches Reach 71 inches
18-2 (7 KOs) Record 20-1 (7 KOs)

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

The line movement for this matchup is a bit extreme and Gamrot might be a tad undervalued at this price. That said, regardless of where this fight goes, Tsarukyan should have the edge. Gamrot is a bit better as a grappler but Tsarukyan's wrestling and top control are superior and he has shown the ability to dominate jiu-jitsu specialists on the mat.

When this fight stays standing up, Tsarukyan should have the advantage there as well because he's a bit more athletic and explosive as a striker.

In theory, Gamrot has more experience in five-round bouts and should be better suited for this 25-minute main event. However, we saw him gas against Diego Ferreira his last time out while Tsarakyun's cardio has always looked bottomless. 

Prediction: Tsarukyan moneyline (-250 at bet365)

In many matchups where two fighters with strong ground games face off, the bout stays standing up. However, we've seen Tsarukyan consistently go to his wrestling well even against highly accredited grapplers like Davi Ramos, Joel Alvarez, and Islam Makhachev.

That tendency to grind out fights with wrestling and top control should slow this pace down and drag the bout out.

While both of these guys have racked up finishes, many of those have come against inferior fighters and they also have plenty of decisions versus better competition. This should be one of the toughest fights in each of their careers and with how close these two are in most areas, we like this to go the distance. 

Pick: Fight to go the distance Yes (-105 at DraftKings)

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