UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs Jackson Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Don't Expect a Judge's Decision

Something’s got to give as Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson seek to end their losing streaks in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card taking place tonight, April 6, at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Hernandez is winless since dropping down to featherweight from lightweight, and his striking power might be the difference-maker against Jackson.

UFC odds have Hernandez as a -210 favorite, and Jackson is a +165 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Hernandez vs. Jackson at UFC Fight Night.

Alexander Hernandez vs Damon Jackson fight odds

Method of Victory	Hernandez	Jackson
To win outright	-210	+165
To win by KO/TKO	+130	+1,100
To win by decision	+325	+450
To win by submission	+850	+550
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on April 6, 2024.

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Hernandez vs Jackson picks

Fight prediction: Hernandez ML

Alexander Hernandez moved down to featherweight, hoping that a size advantage would reignite his stagnant development, but finds himself winless after two fights in his new surroundings. He seemed on his way to upsetting Billy Quarantillo in his debut fight in the division, but he gassed out and allowed Quarantillo to take the fight from him. The same pattern emerged in his most recent loss to Bill Algeo. 

His conditioning has been terrible since moving to featherweight. While he may believe he was undersized at lightweight, he could at least go the rounds and not look like he’s about to collapse in exhaustion. That might seem like a bad omen against a stern grappler like Damon Jackson, but he has his own problems.

Jackson is a wrestler who struggles to land takedowns and has chin issues. At the same time, Hernandez has excellent takedown defense and is the better striker from a technical aspect. If Jackson fails to get Hernandez on the ground, it will not be easy for him to do that. Hernandez’s heavier strikes could put Jackson in a bad spot. Unlike Hernandez, Jackson has been winning fights, albeit against subpar opposition. 

Recent defeats to Quarantillo and Dan Ige showed that even when he can get his takedowns in, he is no better for wear as his striking isn’t up to par. What makes this a difficult fight to pick is that these two have the kind of weaknesses the other can easily exploit. 

Both men fight on borrowed time, but I’ll give a slight edge to Hernandez because of the better striking and takedown defense.

Prediction: Alexander Hernandez moneyline (-215 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Fight doesn't go the distance

One thing about Hernandez and Jackson is they often win inside the distance. Finishes make up 57% of Hernandez's wins and it’s 86% for Jackson. Considering we have one fighter who can run out of gas and another who can get his lights turned out, with neither known for their outstanding defensive skills, this fight doesn’t go the rounds.

Jackson’s grinding wrestling can eat away at the clock, but he hunts for submissions, making him even more taxing to fight off the mat. While Hernandez has a wrestling background and good takedown defense, he runs the risk of exhausting himself if he constantly defends takedowns and tries to gain a striking foothold.

It won’t take much to hurt or drop Jackson. That size advantage Hernandez hoped would manifest itself at featherweight might finally show up here, courtesy of his opponent’s questionable chin. Either way, someone will get the other in a bad spot and this fight won’t hear the final bell. 

Pick: Fight does not go the distance (-200 at Bet99)

Hernandez vs Jackson betting preview

Hernandez is 14-7 but is 2-3 over his last five coming off a loss to Bill Algeo. He is a good striker and trusts his chin as he lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90 strikes in return, but he can mix in takedowns as he lands 1.20 per 15 minutes. Eight of his wins have been finished with six knockouts and two submissions, and he has an average fight time of nine minutes and 24 seconds.

Jackson is 22-6-1 and lost his last two fights against Quarantillo and Ige. “The Leech” is an aggressive grappler as he lands 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period, whereas he lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.46 in return. He has 15 submission wins and an average fight time of nine minutes and thirty seconds.

This fight will be decided by who has the bigger liability: Hernandez’s cardio or Jackson’s chin. Hernandez is shrinking down to the featherweight limit and doesn’t have the gas tank to fight for a hard three rounds, and Jackson has been knocked out four times. While Jackson is best known for his grappling, he only lands 34% of his takedowns and might struggle to take the fight to the mat against Hernandez’s 60% takedown defense.

Alexander Hernandez vs Damon Jackson tale of the tape

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