UFC Fight Night Allen vs Curtis Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Victory is Twice as Nice for Chris

Brendan Allen takes on Chris Curtis in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Allen is the No. 6-ranked middleweight contender and was originally scheduled to face No. 5 contender Marvin Vettori. However, Vettori withdrew on March 14 and was replaced by Curtis, who knocked out Allen when these two clashed back in 2021.

UFC odds opened have Allen as a -210 favorite for the rematch with Curtis coming back at +175. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 picks and predictions for tonight.

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis fight odds

Method of Victory	Allen	Curtis
To win outright	-210	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+640	+335
To win by points	+280	+640
To win by submission	+165	+2,250
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on April 6, 2024.

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Allen vs Curtis picks

Fight prediction: Chris Curtis 

Brendan Allen has made massive strides since getting knocked out by Chris Curtis in 2021 but I don't think this is a good stylistic matchup for him.

Allen's biggest strength is his grappling but he doesn't have the offensive wrestling to always implement that gameplan and Curtis has an incredible 92% takedown defense. We saw that takedown defense on full display in their first fight when he stuffed all three attempts from Allen and had a 61-43 edge in significant strikes.

Curtis has also struggled against fighters with better lateral mobility and footwork but the smaller octagon at the Apex will make it easier for him to cut off the cage. In addition, while Allen should try to stay at a distance and rely on kicks he has shown a tendency to get comfortable in the pocket. Those exchanges are where Curtis excels with his accurate boxing, heavier hands, and better durability.

If Allen can take this fight to the mat, he'll have a significant advantage but I'm not sure he'll be able to. If this stays a stand-up battle it should be much closer to a pick'em which puts the value on Curtis.  

Prediction: Chris Curtis moneyline (+170 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

Almost all of Allen's stoppage wins have been by way of submission and with Curtis' strong takedown defense he'll find it tough to find those openings.

However, Allen should come in with a better game plan than the first time these guys fought when Curtis knocked him out in the clinch. Expect a more cautious approach from Allen this time as tries to stay on the outside and rely on his kicks.

However, that likely won't end in a knockout win from the favorite either since Curtis is a durable fighter and has only been finished once in his last 35 fights. With four of Curtis' last six bouts going the full 15 minutes, take the Over 2.5 rounds here. 

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-150 at Bet99)

Allen vs Curtis betting preview

Brendan "All In" Allen would have gotten closer to a title shot with a win against Vettori and while Curtis doesn't give him the same opportunity it does give him a chance to get revenge for his last loss. Allen has won six fights in a row since losing to Curtis in 2021 and in his last bout, he submitted Paul Craig to claim his third Performance of the Night bonus. 

The former LFA middleweight champ has gone 12-2 in the octagon with eight of those wins coming by way of submission. He has elite grappling ability but has also improved his stand-up over the last couple of years while developing a diverse striking arsenal. 

Chris "Action Man" Curtis is coming off a split-decision win against Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 297 in January. He's 2-2 with a no contest in his last five fights and at 36 years old he may have peaked as a borderline Top-15 middleweight.

Curtis is an accurate striker with good takedown defense but he doesn't have great speed and can get easily frustrated by opponents with better footwork. He can be basic with his kickboxing and doesn't have many layers to his striking. 

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis tale of the tape

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