UFC 299 Burns vs Maddalena Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Getting Big Maddalena

Jack Della Maddalena faces the sternest test of his career against former title challenger Gilbert Burns on the UFC 299 undercard, taking place tonight, March 9, at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Maddalena is slightly favored to defeat the capable Burns, and he may have the right opponent to confirm his status as an elite welterweight.

UFC odds have Maddalena as a -160 favorite, and long-time contender Burns is a +130 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Maddalena vs. Burns at UFC 299.

Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena fight odds

Method of Victory	Burns	Maddalena
To win outright	+130	-160
To win by KO/TKO	+740	+145
To win by decision	+510	+335
To win by submission	+380	+1,650
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 9, 2024.

Bet on the UFC at Bet99!

Sign Up Offer
One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join Bet99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using Bet99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Burns vs Maddalena picks

Fight prediction: Maddalena ML

After his loss to Belal Muhammad at UFC 288, there's little left to argue against the fact that Gilbert Burns is a high-level gatekeeper. Even though he remains in the orbit of a title shot, Burns can't seem to get it done when he's up against the real elite fighters of the division. Jack Della Maddalena is taking a step up in class against the former title challenger, and he has everything he'll need to push Burns to another loss.

He is a cracking striker with wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills to go along with it, and he is usually in great shape with his cardio. From what we've seen in him, he can win in many different ways and is only getting better. He'll have an answer for everything Burns will throw at him, including his vaunted Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills.

In his attempts to mix his developing striking with his masterful BJJ, Burns can sometimes get caught admiring his work and overcommitting to striking. Maddalena isn't just a faster striker but a sharper one. If Burns can't take him down, and it wouldn't surprise me if he can't due to Maddalena's physical strength and takedown defense, I don't expect Burns to beat him in a conventional striking battle.

Now, we don't know how the Australian will fare against such an accomplished opponent. Burns can make things very hard for him and could have him work for every shot he lands, with that veteran savvy potentially coming into play if the fight is up for grabs in the final few minutes.

We've seen Burns fail under those exact circumstances before, and that's why the pick is Maddalena. He'll be too strong and fast and should avoid most of Burns' takedown attempts. Even if he does get him on the ground, Maddalena will likely scramble back up before Burns can try to lock in a submission. Della Maddalena gets the win and marches closer to a title shot.

Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena moneyline (-160 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Maddaelna by decision

This is going to be a tough night for Burns. He’s fighting an energetic striker 10 years younger than him who can stifle his BJJ game and overwhelm him in striking exchanges. While it is true that Burns has done his part to improve his striking, his best path to victory is to mix up his offense and keep Maddalena off balance. 

Though the sun might be setting on Burns, he’s still incredibly tough, and Maddalena would be foolish to take too many chances in an attempt to force a finish. Burns has a good chin, and the threat of his submissions is ever-present. 

However, Maddalena’s intensity and work rate will be too much to overcome for the veteran. More often than not, Burns loses fights where he faces a striking deficit and is unable to get his opponents on the ground. Considering Maddalena lands an astonishing 7.20 significant strikes per minute and successfully stuffs 82% of takedowns, the writing is on the wall.

Maddalena will beat Burns in the stand-up and prove too strong to be taken down. My best bet for the fight is Maddalena winning a commanding decision.

Pick: Jack Della Maddalena by decision (+320 at Bet99)

Burns vs Maddalena betting preview

If there's anyone who is being built up to be a star, it's Maddalena. The Australian has been moving up the ranks, looking very impressive as he's doing it, and he's now on the verge of breaking into the elite conversation if he can get past the toughest opponent he's faced in his career. He beat Kevin Holland by split decision in his last fight where he was outstruck but did the better quality work and made Holland look less than effective.

"Durinho" is one of the best BJJ practitioners at welterweight, and for a while, that was all he was known for. He incorporated more striking into his arsenal, which has given him an extra wrinkle to his game that has worked for him, but he's also coming off a clear loss to Muhammad at UFC 288. While he's still highly ranked and extremely skilled, Burns often falls short against top-tier opposition.

While Burns has been contending against the top of the welterweight division for the last four years, he’s 3-3 over his last six. Maddalena is taking a major step up in class, facing his first former title contender since joining the UFC.

Gilbert Burns vs Jack Maddalena tale of the tape

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic