UFC 274 Oliveira vs Gaethje Picks and Predictions: Saturday's Weigh-Ins Have Changed the Narrative

Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje is the headline event for an action-packed card of UFC 274 betting on May 7.

Oliveira will be making his second defense of the lightweight championship against Gaethje who unsuccessfully challenged former title-holder Khabib Nurmagomedov two years ago. UFC odds opened with Oliveira as a -175 favorite and Gaethje at +150, but have since slimmed to Oliveira at -145 after he missed weight on Friday.

Here are our best free UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje picks and predictions for Saturday, May 7 from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. 

Oliveira vs Gaethje fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Oliveira vs Gaethje method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on May 6, 2022.

Oliveira vs Gaethje picks

• Prediction: Gaethje (+130)
• Best bet: Gaethje inside the distance (+175)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Oliveira vs Gaethje betting preview

Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira is fresh off the first defense of his UFC lightweight title in December, when he submitted Dustin Poirier at the beginning of the third round. 

It's been an arduous climb to the top for the 32-year-old, who was finished four times in six bouts between 2015 and 2017 (with three of those coming when he was draining himself to fight at featherweight). Since then, he has hit his stride at 155 pounds, reeling off 10 wins in a row. 

With an extensive background in BJJ, "Charlie Olives" is one of the best grapplers in the world and holds the UFC record for submission wins (15) and most finishes (18). He has also vastly improved as a striker and his dangerous Muay Thai ability has resulted in three wins by knockout in his last six fights, including a TKO victory against Michael Chandler when they faced off for the vacant belt last year.

Justin Gaethje is coming off a unanimous decision win against Chandler at UFC 268 in November. That earned Gaethje his 10th Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonus in nine UFC bouts.

The former WSOF lightweight champion, Gaethje is 5-1 in his last six fights, with his only defeat during that span coming in a title challenge against Nurmagomedov in 2020.  

Gaethje was an All-American wrestler at the University of Northern Colorado, but he prefers to stand up where he can destroy opponents with his heavy hands. He's more than just a power-puncher, though, possessing strong technical boxing ability along with great footwork and excellent use of leg kicks to set up his combinations.

Oliveira vs Gaethje tale of the tape

Oliveira vs Gaethje UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Prediction: Gaethje ML 

Prior to his bout against Chandler, the biggest criticism of Oliveira was that he was a quitter who would give up if he was hit hard and often enough early. He has changed that perception after weathering the storm against dangerous power-punchers like Chandler and Poirier in back-to-back fights and now will have to do it again against the hammer-handed Gaethje.

Oliveira is the superior grappler but he can be hittable and Gaethje has faster hands and devastating power. The margin between these two fighters is very slim but after Oliveira missed weight on Friday, I'm leaning towards Gaethje. This is the fifth time that Oliveira has missed weight in his career, but the other four all came at 145 pounds where he was clearly drained by cutting too much. 

Due to missing weight for the title fight, Oliveira is kind of in a lose-lose situation. Either Gaethje wins outright or Oliveira wins on Saturday but vacates the title. Granted, he would still likely get the first crack at the vacant belt but that's still a tough mental hurdle to overcome when you're squaring off against arguably the hardest hitter at 155. 

I think this bout is closer to a 50/50 matchup at the moment and with Gaethje still available as high as +130 at some books, I'm leaning towards the underdog.

Prediction: Justin Gaethje moneyline (+130 at Caesars)

Best bet: Gaethje inside the distance (+175)

Both of these guys are all-action, all the time, and aren't afraid to be aggressive even if it means opening themselves up. Although Gaethje went the distance in his most recent fight against Chandler, that was a 15-minute war and there's no way that either fighter would have been able to go the distance had it been scheduled for 25 minutes like this weekend's title bout. 

Gaethje's previous nine wins (including five inside the octagon) all came by way of knockout. Oliveira has really improved as a striker but he still doesn't move his head off the center line, and that combined with his aggressiveness in the pocket, makes him capable of getting cracked.

Oliveira survived early onslaughts from Chandler and Poirier but he has been finished by dynamic strikers before and absorbing power shots from Gaethje will be tough to bounce back from.

If you like either of these fighters to win, you might as well sweeten the deal by backing them to win inside the distance. As of 5 p.m. ET on Friday evening, you can back Gaethje to win by KO, TKO, sub, or disqualification at +175 at Bet365, slightly better than the payout at other books for the KO/TKO method to win prop alone. 

Pick: Gaethje inside the distance (+175 at bet365)

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