Toronto FC seeks its first away MLS victory since 2022 on Sunday when they visit the New England Revolution at Gillette Stadium. Our soccer betting odds have the Revs clearly favored to take all three points.
It’s a very busy period for New England, as Sunday’s tilt marks their fourth match in 12 days, with another four matches scheduled in the next two weeks. They’ll hope their home opener sees them fare better than their season opener, as they lost 3-1 to DC United following an early red card.
The road was a horror show last season for Toronto, as the Reds failed to score a single goal in their final seven MLS away fixtures and went winless away from home. Their opening scoreless draw away at FC Cincinnati was a positive result, and John Herdman will hope his side can build on that and get him his first victory as manager.
Our New England Revolution vs Toronto FC free betting picks and predictions for Sunday, March 3 looks over the betting market and explains why fans could be left wanting for goals.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC best odds
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC picks and predictions
Carles Gil is at the heart of everything the New England Revolution do in attack, and that was on display last weekend against DC United. That’s evidenced by more than him having the side’s lone goal in that 3-1 defeat.
A pair of yellow cards for Giacomo Vrioni saw the Revs go down to 10 men after just 25 minutes, a key reason they were outshot 30-10 by DC on the day. But Gil took four of those 10 efforts, putting three of them on target.
Two of those shots came from free kicks, but it was his counter-attack goal at 67 minutes that stunned the away fans as he converted on a world-class effort. Gil also got those shots away despite having just one touch in the opponent’s penalty area, and registered 1.66 xGOT for the match.
That makes his withdrawal on Thursday night a concerning one, as the attacking midfielder came off at halftime with tightness in his Achilles tendon. More worrisome for the Revs is the fact that he’s likely to miss out on Sunday, according to manager Caleb Porter.
“Again, we are still evaluating that,” Porter said in his press conference following their CONCACAF Champions League win over Independiente de La Chorrera. “The fact he came out because he was tight, it is probably unlikely he will play. But we are still evaluating the situation.”
With the fixture congestion the Revs are dealing with, risking Gil would be a poor move. Add in the fact that Vrioni is suspended, and Bobby Wood possibly returning after dealing with knee soreness, and you’re left wondering where the goals will come from for the home side.
Sean Johnson will be tasked with keeping those goals at bay, and the Toronto FC keeper was terrific in the season opener, posting a Man of the Match performance. Their 0-0 stalemate with FC Cincinnati saw him make six saves, as his defense blocked seven of the 17 shots attempted to help limit his exposure.
But Toronto’s attack was once again found lacking, much as it was in 2023. They put just three of their nine efforts on goal, and registered only 0.44 xG for the match. They failed to create a single big chance, and their three starting forwards combined for just three touches in the FCC penalty area.
Federico Bernardeschi took five of his side’s nine shots, with the Toronto wingback having two of the three efforts on goal for his team. But he, just like his teammates, were unable to really threaten with any of those efforts.
If the Revs had a healthy Gil, I’d be all over him to score a goal. But it’s his creativity that New England will miss the most, as he created three chances last week despite being down a man and generally pulls the strings in their attack.
As such, I’m taking the Under here. With TonyBet offering +127 for a match featuring a team that can’t score away from home and a tired squad missing key players going forward, it’s simply too much value to ignore.
My best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+127 at TonyBet)
Bet on MLS soccer at TonyBet
One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!
Not available in Ontario.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC same-game parlay
Under 2.5 goals
Federico Bernardeschi Over 2.5 shots
Toronto win or draw
Bernardeschi was firing at will last weekend, and the Revs allowed 30 shots last week albeit being down a man for 65 minutes. With their tired legs in defense, I expect him to be able to utilize his pace and power to get at least three attempts on Sunday.
Toronto showed last week that they can defend well as a unit against a powerful attack, and I like them to get a result here against an exhausted New England side missing its best player. I’m not brave enough to fully back them to win, but the double chance adds strong value to our hefty same-game parlay odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC side and Over/Under analysis
The 3-way line has New England favored to win at home, with odds of -130 to -135 on offer. That’s come way down from last weekend, when they were priced at -200 in some places, as the Gil news shifted the odds heavily.
Meanwhile, that news changed Toronto from +600 underdogs down to the +330 range. The draw can be had at +300. Both of these lines offer value, the draw perhaps most of all. In fact, I’m likely sprinkling a bit on the draw, and am definitely playing the double chance on Toronto at even odds.
We gave out the Under as our best bet, and the Gil news moved that line much less. The Over 2.5 is priced around -150, which makes little sense to me given it relies heavily on New England scoring goals based on how the 3-way line is priced.
That said, the Over was priced closer to -170 last weekend, so there has been some movement in that regard after Gil’s availability came to light. But it’s not enough for me, which is why I’m grabbing that value now in case it shifts when lineups come out.
🕒 North Carolina: Betting starts on 3/11! 🕒
North Carolina sports betting will launch on March 11 — but you can pre-register now and get these fantastic pre-launch offers:
Bonus bets
Get $300 in bonus bets on launch day!
Claim now
Profit boostsGet 7x 100% profit boosts on launch day!
Claim now with code: COVERSBONUSDBL
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 3, 2024 |
| Time: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 55F, 9 mph winds, 20% PoP |
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC key injuries
New England Revolution: Carles Gil M (Doubtful), Giacomo Vrioni F (Out), Bobby Wood F (Questionable).
Toronto FC: Richie Laryea D (Questionable), Lorenzo Insigne F (Doubtful), Jordan Perruzza F (Out).
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
