Sevilla travel to Manchester for their final Champions League group stage match, seeking to build some momentum for their domestic league as knockout round qualification is highly unlikely.
Champions League odds have Sevilla as heavy underdogs, but Man City will be without megastar forward Erling Haaland. That may swing the tide in favor of the visiting side — but the smartest play is to bank on both teams finding the back of the net Wednesday.
Read why in our free Champions League picks for Manchester City vs. Sevilla on November 2.
Man City vs Sevilla best odds
Man City vs Sevilla picks and predictions
Sevilla have had an underwhelming season so far, sitting in the relegation zone of La Liga Santander. Sevilla, being one of the most experienced teams in the history of European competitions, sits in third place in their Champions League group, which isn't good enough to advance to the knockout round but they have already booked their spot in next year's Europa League competition.
The Spanish side have scored at least one goal in three of their five Champions League games so far, and have also conceded a goal in three of five matches. Since the last time these two teams met, when Man City won 4-0, Sevilla have scored in nine out of 12 games across all competitions.
Also when these two last met, Julen Lopetegui was Sevilla’s coach — and now we have Jorge Sampaoli, who has seen his club score in six straight games since he took over.
On the other hand, Man City has booked their spot in the Round of 16 as the winner of Group G. As usual in the Pep Guardiola era, we are seeing City sitting near the top of the EPL as well, scoring a goal in 15 out of 18 games this season and leading the EPL with a staggering 37 goals scored.
Offense is the least of their issues, as we are not worried about them scoring a goal... but rather if they can concede one. Man City has conceded just 11 goals in 12 EPL matches (second-fewest in the league) and allowed just a single goal through their first five CL contests.
When Man City faces an inferior team, they typically concede ball possession and sit deep in their own half, content to defend 70% of the game. However, with little motivation for either team to win the game, I am expecting a far more open game as both coaches should take more risks with their strategy and personnel.
With some inexperienced players potentially entering the lineups and a new coach at Sevilla, I love the value of betting on both teams to score. This line could also move quickly if each team announces backups in their starting lineup, with a focus on their domestic leagues.
My best bet: Both teams to score (-118 at FanDuel)
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Man City vs Sevilla side analysis
Man City are favorites in this game, but in last year’s final group stage matchup (vs. RB Leipzig), they lost 2-1 — in a similar situation where they were also heavily favored, there was nothing to gain from a victory, and their opponent had recently undergone a managerial change.
They haven’t gotten the most out of star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne this season, which led to Guardiola saying last week that his form "could be better," but the City boss declared the Belgium superstar "back" after his game-winning goal this past weekend vs. Leicester City.
Sevilla have had a tough year, but Sampaoli returns to a team he led to a fourth-place finish in La Liga the last time he coached them (2016-17) and he has given the team new strength — they’ve dominated ball possession (55% and 62%) in each of their last two games.
Man City vs Sevilla Over/Under analysis
Again, City have scored a staggering 37 goals in the EPL this season, while Sevilla have finally found some consistency in finding the back recently.
The previous matchup between these teams saw four total goals (albeit all by Man City), but that is why the soccer odds are heavily shaded to the Over 2.5 for this matchup — City can top this total itself as they’ve done so several times this season.
With the wide-open pace I'm expecting Wednesday, if Sevilla can find the net once the Over 3 is also a lean. There is quite a bit of juice to pay, but the push security of three goals with the high-powered Man City offense makes it a comfortable play.
City games have gone Over three goals in nine of the last 16 contests — this team can score goals in bunches, even without superstar Erling Haaland, and I believe Sampaoli will have Sevilla ready to match the offensive intensity of the EPL titan... and can tally a goal as they’ve done their six previous matches.
Man City vs Sevilla game info
| Location: | Etihad Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 2, 2022 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
Man City vs Sevilla key injuries
Man City: Erling Haaland (Out), Kalvin Phillips (Out), Kyler Walker (Out), Cole Palmer (Out).
Sevilla: Fernando (Questionable), Tanguy Nianzou (Questionable), Jesus Corona (Out).
Man City vs Sevilla recent form
| Teams | Last five matches |
|---|---|
 Man City |
D-D-W-W-W |
 Sevilla |
W-D-L-D-L |
Man City vs Sevilla weather
Wet conditions are expected in Manchester on Wednesday evening. Temperatures will be in the upper-40s, with a better than 50% chance of rain throughout the contest.
