Man City vs Aston Villa Predictions and Picks: Dried Up Offenses at the Etihad

We have a Premier League top-four clash with Manchester City vs Aston Villa on Wednesday 3rd March. There’s a host of great games in this midweek Premier League slot but the best, at least as far as the table says, is Man City vs Aston Villa.

Aston Villa aren’t mounting a title charge but they have a chance at finishing in the Champions League spots, while Man City are firmly in a three-way battle with Liverpool and Arsenal to lift that famous trophy.

Join me as I break down the EPL odds and offer my free best soccer picks and predictions for Man City vs Aston Villa on Wednesday, April 3. 

Man City vs Aston Villa best odds

EPL predictions for Man City vs Aston Villa

The midweek slate of Premier League action continues with a hugely important game at the Etihad with Man City taking on Aston Villa. Heading into these games Villa was fourth in the Premier League with Man City third, one point behind Arsenal, and three behind leaders Liverpool. A 0-0 draw for Man City against Arsenal was a result that didn’t really harm either team but after two back-to-back draws, it’s clear that Pep Guardiola’s team needs to get back to winning ways.

Villa beat Wolves last time out, a 2-0 victory that got them their first win in three games and kept them ahead of Spurs who are chasing in the battle for the top four and a Champions League spot. Villa have performed well against City, only losing once in the last three meetings between the clubs and winning 1-0 when they met at Villa Park in December, but can they do that again? Well, that remains to be seen, but one thing does leap out when you break down each team’s recent performances, and that’s both attacks having slight struggles. This is why the best bet for Man City vs Aston Villa is for Under 2.5 goals at a huge +204.

I understand why that pick might surprise you. After all, this is Manchester City, last year’s treble winners, and these two have scored a combined 125 goals between them this season. Not only that but the majority of Aston Villa’s games on the road have seen the Over land. However, it’s not quite as obvious as that, and +204 odds offer huge value given what we’ve seen from both teams in recent weeks.

Man City have, save for the last two games, been winning games and climbing up the table. They’ve looked comfortable in the majority of these games and have largely played well, but they haven’t been putting teams to the sword like we’ve seen in previous years and their attack has faltered, much like it did against Arsenal on Sunday. Man City have only scored three or more league goals twice in the last two months, once against a terrible Man Utd team and once against Burnley who are heading straight to the Championship. Let’s not forget that Under 2.5 goals has landed in four of City’s past five Premier League games at the Etihad.

We’ve seen this season that Villa aren’t as defensively strong as they have been previously under Unai Emery but they’re still very much capable of putting on a strong defensive performance, such as when they kept a clean sheet against this Man City team in December.

Not only that but their star striker Ollie Watkins is questionable, which limits their goalscoring potential.

Backing against goals in a Man City game is also a brave move but when you look at how they’ve played in recent weeks, and consider Aston Villa without Watkins, it looks like a high value opportunity at +204.

My best bet: Under 2.5 (+204 at TonyBet)

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Man City vs Aston Villa same-game parlay

Under 2.5

Man City moneyline

Erling Haaland to score

+850 at bet365

In addition to our best bet, we’re also adding Man City to win. They haven’t been playing at their very best in the past month but they’re still a team with real pedigree. They have real experience at grinding out wins when in a Premier League title race and you’d have to back those previous experiences to help them in a tough game against Villa. This is a team who knows what it takes to win and have a starting lineup stacked with world-class players. They’ll get the win.

The man to get them that win will most likely be Erling Haaland, which is why we’re backing the Norwegian to score for the third and final leg of our Same-Game Parlay. He’s scored 18 goals in 24 league games this campaign plus another 11 across the FA Cup and Champions League campaigns too.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Man City vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis

Man City to win is mentioned above, however, at odds of -345 I wouldn’t consider backing it on the moneyline, and neither should you. They should win this and they likely will, but from what we’ve seen in recent weeks it’s not worth taking the bet at those odds. Odds of +540 for the draw or +819 for an away win, are better value options, but unless you really believe in either of them then I wouldn’t recommend it either.

We’ve talked about why you should be considering betting Under 2.5 goals at +204 but if you wanted to go against our best bet for Man City vs Aston Villa then you can get -251 on Over 2.5 goals. 

Man City vs Aston Villa game info

Man City vs Aston Villa key injuries

Man City: Kyle Walker RB (Questionable), John Stones CB (Questionable), Ederson GK (Questionable)
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), Emiliano Buendia CAM (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), John McGinn MID (Out), Matty Cash FB (Questionable), Jacob Ramsey MID (Questionable), Ollie Watkins STR (Questionable)

Man City vs Aston Villa recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League Form
Man City	D-D-W-W-W
Aston Villa	W-D-L-W-W

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