Japan vs Sweden Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Japan Sends Overmatched Sweden Side Packing

The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup quarterfinals features just one previous winner in the final eight teams, and Japan will look to keep alive their hopes of adding a second trophy when they face Sweden on Friday. 

Japan are only third-favorites in the Women's World Cup odds behind England and Spain, but they arguably have been the best team in the competition thus far. They’ve been ruthless at both ends of the pitch and have conceded just once. 

Sweden was able to outlast the United States in the Round of 16 and are playing well, having also allowed a single goal through four matches. But they’re having trouble creating chances from open play, with four of their nine goals coming by way of set pieces.

Whose style of play will come out on top on Friday? Find out in our Japan vs Sweden picks and predictions for Friday, August 11.  

Japan vs Sweden odds

Japan		Sweden
+137	Moneyline	+210
+225	Draw	+225
Over 2.5 (+135)	Total	Under 2.5 (-175)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 10, 2023.

Japan vs Sweden picks and predictions

The Japanese team has been a well-oiled machine at the World Cup. They cruised through the group stage, winning all four matches by a combined 11-0 scoreline. 

Their most impressive performance came against Spain. They jumped all over them early, hitting the Spanish on the counterattack and taking a 2-0 lead inside the opening half-hour. It showcased their ability to not only score when in possession, but how well they could defend and absorb pressure as they enjoyed just 23% possession.

Speaking of pressure, Sweden endured just that against the United States. They faced 11 shots on goal over the course of 120 minutes, but keeper Zecira Musovic was up to the task. She was also bailed out by the post to remain deadlocked.

For all her saves against the United States, Musovic has only been expected to concede 1.5 goals from shots on target so far in the entire tournament. The Americans managed just 1.29 xG from their 11 shots on frame, which is a paltry number by most standards. It was indicative of the issues the USWNT had during the tournament with finishing their chances.

That’s one area where the Japanese have thrived. Hinata Miyazawa leads the Golden Boot race with five goals scored from just six shots on target, and she’s greatly outperforming her 2.45 xG on those efforts. Teammate Mina Tanaka also has two goals from 1.66 xG, having taken just four shots that have tested the opposing keeper.

Japan are the better side all-around. They’ve yet to so much as receive a yellow card in the tournament, and they dispatched Norway 3-1 in a Round of 16 match they arguably should’ve won by more. Sweden are a great side, but 120 minutes played is going to be taxing on their legs, and it’s difficult to expect Musovic to stand on her head once again as she did against the Americans.

That’s why I’m gladly taking Japan to win in regulation at +137. It’s a terrific price at plus-odds for the side that is simply playing better and has already shown they can dominate one of the favorites in the tournament.  

My best bet: Japan moneyline (+137 at bet365)

Japan vs Sweden same-game parlay

Japan moneyline

Japan Over 4 corners

Japan Over 1 goal

Hinata Miyazawa Over 1.5 shots

+600 at bet365

For our same-game parlay, we’re going to stick with Japanese props as we anticipate they’ll dominate the possession against a Swedish side that is going to sit back. We’ve built one that will pay out six times your stake at bet365.

Japan have managed at least six corners in three of their four matches in this tournament. The only one where they failed to do so was against Spain, and that was a match where they were primarily set up to counterattack and had less than 30% of the ball. 

Sweden are going to be defending much like they did against the Americans, who attempted nine corners of their own. I like a floor of five corners in this match for Japan. 

I also like Miyazawa to fire away at goal. The United States had 22 shots against the Swedes, and she’s taken 13 shots through four matches. Two shots should be easily attainable in this match.

Finally, if Japan get a goal, it’s hard to see them not getting a second. Sweden will be forced to come out of their shell and try to get that equalizer, and Japan are ruthless when they’re able to attack in space. Look for them to score multiple goals and close out a profitable SGP. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Japan vs Sweden spread and Over/Under analysis

Japan are priced between +110 and +137, but their price has been going up over the past 24 hours. Sweden can be as high as +225, with the draw in the same range. Japan to advance is -150, which is also down from around -170 on Wednesday. 

We’ve already discussed why Japan is probably going to win the match. They should do so in regulation, especially as Sweden begin to tire later in proceedings. With Mina Tanaka pulling the strings and Miyazawa putting chances away, it’s going to be a long day for Sweden’s defense. 

As for the total, the Under is priced heavily towards the Under 2.5 goals, with -170 being the best price you’ll find. The Over is paying +125, which could be a decent value if you think Sweden will find a goal. That said, I’m personally staying away from the total in this one.

I don’t expect Japan to top the total by themselves, but as they showed against Spain, they’re capable of doing so. It’ll depend on how long it takes them to break through. Sweden had just one shot on goal against the Americans, and just three in the previous match against Argentina.

Japan vs Sweden game info

Japan vs Sweden key injuries

Japan: None.
Sweden: None.

Pages related to this topic