A budding MLS rivalry renews on Saturday as Inter Miami host Orlando City in an all-Florida matchup. Our MLS odds have Inter Miami clearly favored to win at Chase Stadium.
Inter Miami needed some magic from Lionel Messi to secure a draw last weekend when they traveled to the LA Galaxy, with his stoppage-time goal leveling the score at 1-1. Fatigue is already a problem for Messi and Luis Suarez, however, and they’ll be thankful to return home where Inter Miami have just one loss in their last nine regular-season outings.
For Orlando City, the road has produced solid results dating back to last season. They’ve lost just once in their last eight away fixtures in MLS play and already took a 3-0 win away at Canadian side Valary FC in the CONCACAF Champions League. While this is their third match in eight days, they’ll hope the short trip south will be a pleasant one.
Our Inter Miami vs. Orlando City free betting picks for Saturday, March 2 explain why the visitors might be the happier of the two sides come the final whistle.
Inter Miami vs Orlando City best odds
Inter Miami vs Orlando City picks and predictions
When Lionel Messi joined Inter Miami last season, many defenses looked terrified. They’d drop back when he got on the ball, hoping to somehow stay between him and their goal while allowing acres of space for Messi and Sergio Busquets to operate.
Orlando City took a completely different approach. Rather than retreat, they went after Messi. Literally. While it didn’t particularly work out in their favor — the Argentine wizard put in a Man of the Match performance with a pair of goals — he was clearly feeling it in the next few matches.
While he was only credited with four official fouls on 68 touches, he was battered relentlessly all night. He even lost his cool, getting booked in the 21st minute and being a bit fortunate that some of his later retaliatory actions weren’t further punished.
As the season wore on, Messi began showing signs of fatigue, in part due to their heavy fixture congestion and partly because of all the travel involved in MLS. And now, after a preseason that saw them go to China plus a cross-country trip in the second week, it’s already coming into play.
Inter Miami head coach Tata Martino’s press conference on Friday saw him make note not just of the fatigue already setting in, but the fact that — between league play and international fixtures later this month — Messi could play in seven matches over 21 days.
“What worries me the most is the day-to-day and how he is recovering game by game,” Martino said on Friday. “I feel that in these first two matches, we have relied on him excessively in each encounter, which has caused him significant fatigue in both games.”
Martino indicated Messi won’t be expected to run as much, and that his teammates will be relied upon to get the ball to him in dangerous areas, rather than him dropping back and bringing it up.
There are two issues with that, though. The Orlando team Inter Miami beat 3-1 last season has improved immensely, and their defense is extremely tough. Their 39 goals conceded last season were the second-fewest in the East, and they’ve added some major upgrades this summer to a team that finished second in the conference a season ago.
Suarez could easily get benched for this match, as he looked horrid against the Galaxy. He’s one of the few Inter players who — like Messi — are adept at dropping deep to get on the ball and advance it. Messi is likely to see more physical defending here, which will make it tougher for him to get involved and could drain the focus of an already tired player.
And let’s not forget, Inter Miami was beyond fortunate to get a result last weekend. The Galaxy walked away with just one goal despite having 3.37 xG, and they outshot Inter Miami 24-11 while missing out on four big chances.
For those reasons, I’m taking Orlando City to get a result. Inter Miami’s defense will get punished by Orlando’s deep striker core, and the visitors should be able to keep Messi & Co. in check.
My best bet: Orlando City double chance (-107 at TonyBet)
Lionel Messi odds
Messi is fetching -110 odds to score a goal, which means it’s taken just two games for him to jump the fence to minus odds. You can still get him at +309 those looking for him to set up a teammate can get him at +134 to assist a goal at some point — down from +154 last week against the Galaxy.
To get any solid pricing on shots, you’re going to need to wager on him taking 5+ in this fixture. TonyBet has that listed at -125 which is a bit better than last week. That said, he did fire off eight attempts last week.
However, his shots on goal market is all over the place right now. Messi to have 2+ shots on goal went from -134 last week to a juicy -176 here, with 3+ jumping to +250. He managed three on goal last week against the Galaxy, one of which was the late equalizer.
If it were a team other than Orlando, I’d consider playing that, but he’s not going to get time on the ball to try to line up those efforts. He’s also not going to be on the ball as deep as usual, based on Martino’s comments, which robs him of some of those long-shot opportunities.
Bet on MLS soccer at TonyBet
One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!
Not available in Ontario.
Inter Miami vs Orlando City same-game parlay
Orlando City double chance
Luis Muriel to score or assist
Cesar Araujo 1+ shot
Luis Muriel was Orlando’s big splash this offseason and he assisted in his debut in their 3-1 win over Cavalry on Tuesday night.
He managed three shots, putting two on frame, and was unfortunate not to score. The former Atalanta forward averaged the second-fewest minutes between goals during his time in Serie A — behind only Cristiano Ronaldo — and he’s going to make his mark on this match at some point.
Cesar Araujo offers some solid parlay value to take a shot in this match. He took two shots last weekend against CF Montreal and he’s already attempted three in just 125 minutes of play in CONCACAF Champions League.
Inter Miami have conceded 41 shots over their first two fixtures, and his involvement in the secondary break should open up an opportunity for him to let fire.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Inter Miami vs Orlando City side and Over/Under analysis
Inter Miami are the favorites on the 3-way line with pricing between -133 and -147, but it’s a far cry from the -200 they were on bet365 last Monday. The draw has stayed fairly level and can be had at +300, while Orlando City has gone from +400 earlier in the week to between +300 and +340 now.
Orlando’s roster is very healthy with no injury concerns, but Inter Miami will be without five players while midfielder Diego Gomez is dealing with fatigue. Suarez is also likely to be dropped in exchange for the speedy Leonardo Campana.
The standard total has given way for a 3.0 Asian total at DraftKings, with the Under priced at -140 and the Over paying even money. Those wishing to stick with the typical 2.5-goal total will pay heavy juice, with -154 the best price on offer.
These sides played out to a 1-1 draw last September in a match that neither Messi, Busquets, or Jordi Alba took part in. Their previous three meetings all saw 4+ goals scored.
That said, this Orlando defense is strong, and they've outscored their three opponents 6-1 across all competitions so far this year. Inter Miami have also seen just two goals scored in each of their first two outings.
Inter Miami vs Orlando City game info
| Location: | Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Calm conditions, 79F. |
Inter Miami vs Orlando City key injuries
Inter Miami: Diego Gomez M (Questionable), Fanco Negri D (Out), Facundo Farias M (Out).
Orlando City: No key injuries to report.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
