Inter Miami look to maintain their unbeaten start to the MLS campaign when they host CF Montreal on Sunday. Our MLS odds show the Herons clearly favored to claim all three points.
A bit of a sleepy start came to a screeching halt for Inter Miami last weekend, as they put five goals past Orlando City. Luis Suarez posted a brace inside 11 minutes and Lionel Messi scored two after the interval as they ran riot. However, both of their star forwards are questionable for Sunday as Tata Martino navigates a very congested fixture list.
It’s been a much better start to the 2024 road campaign for CF Montreal than a year ago as they’ve already taken half as many away points as they did all of last season in just two matches. Sunday marks the third of six straight away fixtures to start the campaign, and Le CFM will hope to end a three-match winless streak in the state of Florida.
Our Inter Miami vs. CF Montreal free betting picks for Sunday, March 10 look over the matchup and identify a player prop that — while a longer shot than usual — is offering strong value for the price.
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal best odds
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal picks and predictions
Inter Miami’s going to be an exhausted side on Sunday and Lionel Messi might not be involved from the start. He’s officially listed on the MLS injury report as questionable with a shin injury, with five other players listed as out for the match.
That’s not to mention the fact Messi and Luis Suarez are coming off a grueling 2-2 draw in Nashville on Thursday night. The Herons had to come back in their CONCACAF Champions League match to salvage the draw, and Messi played the full match after playing every minute of their first three MLS fixtures.
Those things play into our thinking for our best bet on Sunday, as does the departure of former captain DeAndre Yedlin. The right-back was sold to FC Cincinnati on Monday and Julian Gressel filled in at RWB on Thursday night.
Nashville scored two goals on the night, both coming off the foot of Jacob Shaffelburg. He came off the left side both times and on each occasion, Gressel was caught out of position. The first goal came from a turnover in midfield, and Gressel was miles up the pitch and made barely any effort to track back as he watched the goal.
On the second, he was again out of position as Shaffelburg ran behind him off the left side. Once he recovered, he was left clutching at air as he desperately watched Shaffelburg hit a beautiful curler to bury for his second.
That’s one of the reasons why we’re focusing on Ariel Lassiter to put two shots on goal on Sunday. There are other plays we could go with that would be “safer” for us, but I love the value being offered with TonyBet pricing the play at +215.
I doubt Messi starts. He finished the match Thursday, but he was down for a few minutes after catching studs flush to the leg. With the return leg against Nashville coming up on Wednesday, and the importance of that competition, I’m certain of some rotation here and Messi and Suarez are the most likely candidates. There’s also the possibility Sergio Busquets gets some rest.
That’s going to open things up for Montreal, and Lassiter should get the opportunity to take advantage. He took just one shot against Orlando in their opener but put it on goal from 25 yards out as he cut inside from the left.
He was much more active in the attack against FC Dallas last weekend. He had two shots from inside the box from the left side, including a curler that he put on target. The other important aspect of this play is that Lassiter is on set pieces, as he put a second effort on goal from outside the box.
Getting odds over +200 for a player like Lassiter, who will take free kicks near the area and who is going against a wingback that likes to attack more than defend, is something I love to see — especially given how overpriced many markets are becoming in Inter Miami fixtures. So we’ll take a risk here and look for a solid reward.
My best bet: Ariel Lassiter 2+ shots on goal (+215 at TonyBet)
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Inter Miami vs CF Montreal same-game parlay
Ariel Lassiter over 1.5 shots on goal
Most goals to be scored in second half
What’s better than finding a solid prop at a good price? Finding it mispriced at another book, which is the situation we find ourselves in here. I don’t know why bet365 has Lassiter at +900, but we’re not going to question it.
Given the extremely generous price, we’re making our SGP a simple two-legger and backing the second half to see the most goals scored. This is fully contingent on Messi — and possibly Suarez — not starting the match. I can see this being scoreless at the break, or perhaps 1-0 to either side, before their introductions in the second half lead to more goals.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Inter Miami vs CF Montreal side and Over/Under analysis
Despite all the lineup questions, Inter Miami are yet again the public’s pick to win. However, those questions have caused their price on the 3-way moneyline to dip significantly, down to as low as -143 after being closer to -200 when the lines opened last weekend.
The public bet more on the draw after Thursday’s match, as it shifted from +340 down to +290. People are also coming in on Montreal a bit, with their price currently down to +400 from the +500 it was a few days ago.
I’m not playing anything on the 3-way line until I see lineups. Even then, I’ll likely only look at the first half with a lean towards Montreal draw-no-bet if Messi, Suarez, and Busquets are all on the bench. Montreal are unbeaten on the road so far, but Inter Miami’s attack presents a different challenge and I’m not sure they can hold out a full 90 minutes.
The total is also one that, for me, will depend on lineups. The public is still backing the Over 2.5 as it’s extremely juiced. The Over 2.75 Asian total is still -130, while you can get plus-money odds on the Over 3. More money has been coming in on the Unders on those markets as we’ve gotten closer to Sunday.
Montreal played out a 0-0 draw with Orlando before winning 2-1 at FC Dallas last weekend. That same Orlando team conceded five against Inter Miami — but it’s important to know Minnesota scored three on them Saturday night. That indicates last week’s five-goal display might not be as much about Inter Miami as it is about Orlando.
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Inter Miami vs CF Montreal game info
| Location: | Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, March 10, 2024 |
| Time: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Possible thunderstorms and 12-18 mph wings, 80F. |
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal key injuries
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Questionable), Franco Negri D (Out), Ian Fray D (Out).
CF Montreal: Kwadwo Opoku F (Out), Joaquin Sosa D (Questionable), Dominik Yankov M (Questionable).
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