ROC vs Sweden Men's Hockey Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Struggling to Find Twine

Sweden and Russia (ROC - Russain Olympic Committee) will do battle in the Olympic men’s semifinals Friday morning with the winner getting a shot at the gold-medal game against the winner between Finland and Slovakia. 

The ROC came into the tournament as the favorite to win it all but can Sweden’s defensive system keep the Russian offense in check? Find out in our free picks and predictions for Sweden vs. ROC.

ROC vs Sweden odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 16, 2022.

The ROC opened as -150 ML favorites with a total of 5.5, which is -200 to the Under. These two teams met in the World Championships back in May with Russia closing as -175 favorites in a game the ROC won 3-2 in a shootout.

ROC vs Sweden predictions

• Prediction: Draw (+300)
• Prediction: Under 4.5 (+140)
• Best bet: Draw (+300)

Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

ROC vs Sweden game info

• Location: Beijing National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, China
• Date: Friday, February 18, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:10 a.m. ET
• TV: CBC

ROC vs Sweden picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

Sweden is coming off a huge 2-0 win versus Canada where the Swedes limited quality chances all game and made the Canadians look sloppy in the offensive zone. Sweden allowed plenty of O-zone time to Canada but was so tight in the middle of its own defensive zone that the Canadians could only keep the puck to the outside. Sweden allowed zero odd-man rushes and got quality goaltending from Lars Johansson, who made 22 saves.

Johansson has spent the last five seasons in the KHL and has dominated in Russia, posting a GAA below 1.65 in each of those five seasons. He has seen plenty of this ROC team and has an incredible track record to show for it. In total, Sweden has 10 players on the roster who play in Russia professionally. 

Swedish coach Johan Garpenlov took a lot of heat for how he built this Olympic roster but the team has adapted perfectly to his defensive-minded system and poses a tough matchup for the Russians, who have struggled to score in the tournament. 

Sweden has allowed just two even-strength goals through four games and has played a decent slate of opponents that includes Finland, Canada, and Slovakia. Sweden took Finland to OT after leading 3-0 early in that game and easily beat Slovakia 4-1. Now, this tight defensive team will try to hold down a Russian offense that managed just six goals in three games versus Denmark (twice) and Switzerland. 

Through four games, the Russians haven't been as dominant as their +140 outright odds predicted. ROC has been tied or trailing in the second period of three of its four matches. The ROC has the best offensive depth in the tournament but teams lean on the top lines more in bigger moments in the Olympics. Sweden can counter with Lucas Wallmark, who is tied for the lead in goals with five and had the winner versus the Canadians. 

Both clubs have plenty of experience in big games as Russia won the Olympic gold in South Korea while Sweden last medaled (silver) in 2014 and won gold in 2006. This is going to be another low-scoring affair that has us leaning on the dogs at +125. But Sweden was +135 versus the Finns in the preliminaries and +155 vs. Russia in the 2021 World Championships.  If we could find Sweden at +135 or better, it would be a play. But it's a pass at +125. The draw at +300 is live here with how low-scoring Sweden will want this game to be.  

Prediction: Draw +300

Over/Under analysis

Sweden has now played four games under Garpenlov and it has developed into a strong defensive system that played nearly perfect hockey against the Canadians. They held Canada to just 22 shots and very few of them were high-quality. Latvia managed only 17 shots versus Sweden, Slovakia tallied just one goal on 41 shots, and the Swedes blanked the Finns for 40 minutes before a rough third-period letdown. 

Outside of their game against Czechia, the Russians have scored just six goals across three games. In their elimination game versus Denmark as massive -2.5 favorites, Russia managed just three goals and have yet to dominate a game offensively. We doubt that trend gets bucked versus a solid Swedish team that has played solid defense at 5-on-5 all tournament long.

Swedish goalie Johansson has had plenty of success versus Russian skaters as he is 20-9-2 with St. Petersburg with a 1.63 GAA and a .932 SV% in the KHL this season. Russian goalie Ivan Fedotov has a 1.72 GAA through four games in the Olympics and a 2.00 GAA for CSKA Moscow in the KHL this season. 

Combined, both teams are 6-2 to the Under and only two of the eight elimination games have hit the Over. Finland’s 5-1 quarterfinal win needed an uncommon empty-netter with a 4-1 score, as well.

These are not offensively exciting games and if you’re looking to hit a total, it will likely have to be 4.5. With the Under 4.5 paying +140, we’d likely take a stab at that, but with the empty-net goal potential, we’d likely stay off unless we could find this total at 5 flat at -120 to the Under or better.

Prediction: Under 4.5 (+140)

Best bet

As we saw in the game versus Canada, Sweden is happy to sit back and wait for its opponents to make the mistakes. Russia has been playing tight games in the tournament and took Sweden into extra time in their last meeting at the 2021 World Championships. Russia was a bigger favorite in that game and had to win it in a shootout. With a gold-medal game at stake, we’re hitting the draw at +300 on the 3-way moneyline and hoping we see a 1-1 game that gets really boring in the third period. 

Pick: Draw (+300)

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