NHL Picks

Tyler Bertuzzi’s shot prop is set at 2.5 and is paying plus-money (+115) on the Over. He’s topped this mark in three straight games in this series, averaging four shots per game in just over 20 minutes of ice time over that stretch. The Leafs winger is second to only AM34 in shots on net this post-season with 14, and a good amount of them are coming from in tight. This is good because that’s the style of hockey the Leafs need to play tonight, which lends itself to Bertuzzi’s strengths — going to the net and getting chances in tight. 

Veteran forward Teuvo Teravainen may be a bit overlooked in the Hurricanes lineup, but he put up 53 points in 76 games this season and has picked it up in the playoffs with a point in three straight games. The Finnish forward ended the season on a three-game point streak as well before being held off the scoresheet in Game 1. He has a total of eight points (five goals, three assists) in his last seven games.

Colorado's team total is 3.5, with a price of around even money, but for almost 80 cents more you can get the Avs to be the first team to reach four goals. Considering they've scored 5+ in every game of this series (and six of their last eight overall), while dominating the Jets over the last three games — holding Winnipeg to just five total goals (and only eight expected goals) — getting this play at 2/1 shows plenty of value.

The Avs have scored at least five goals in each game this series and have a very good chance to do it again tonight. Hellebuyck was pulled in his last start and currently owns a 5.22 GAA with a .870 save percentage. He is playing with no confidence and is facing a well-oiled offense that ranks first in expected goal% at all strengths in the postseason. Hellebuyck has not been good, but Winnipeg is giving up a lot of quality scoring opportunities and that trend will continue tonight. Top-four defenseman Brenden Dillon will miss tonight, as well. He plays over 20 minutes a night, blocks shots, and hits. He is a massive loss for a team that is chasing the puck in their own end. The Winnipeg special teams have also made zero adjustments in the series as the Avs’ power play has scored multiple goals in three of the four games in the series. Colorado will put up tallies tonight. 

Lehkonen's underlying statistics are screaming for negative regression. He recorded 0.75 points per game and 2.35 points per 60 minutes across 125 regular-season outings with Colorado the past three years, which are astronomically below his 1.75 and 5.14 marks through four Round 1 games against the Jets. I also expect Winnipeg to have its strongest defensive game of the series after finishing the regular season tied for the fewest goals against (2.41 per game) in the league. 

Ehlers skated with Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi during Tuesday’s morning skate, and the trio had success across 208:10 of five-on-five ice time during the regular season with a 54.3 CF% and generated a 54.8% shot share. I expect Ehlers to play similar minutes to his series-high 18:40 in Game 4, and he has also paced the Jets in both shots (11.58) and attempts (26.06) per 60 in Round 1.

Even with a breakout effort from Brock Boeser, who posted the sixth playoff hat trick in franchise history in Game 4, the Vancouver Canucks’ offense is still in quicksand, mustering only 21 shots. They’re averaging just 18 shots per game in the series, and needed a pair of goals late with the goalie pulled. The Nashville Predators again failed to have their powerplay click, going 0-for-2 in Game 4, the third straight game the Preds have failed to cash in with the man advantage. They’re a grim 1-for-15 in the series. While outshooting Vancouver in all but one game this series — ironically, the only game they’ve been able to win — Nashville is putting up just 2.5 goals per game in the playoffs, far off its pace of 3.24 during the regular season.

Josi has only hit the net five times on 25 attempts in Round 1, which checks out at an unsustainably low 20% efficiency. He converted 44.7% of his attempts into shots during the regular season. He also recorded 7.99 shots and 17.88 attempts per 60 minutes during the regular season, so his respective playoff marks of 2.91 and 14.53 reinforce the positive regression ahead. The decline is definitely tied to the Canucks being one of the best shot suppressing teams in the league, but the pendulum has swung too far, and Josi has also recently been dropped to a 2.5-shot total after trading at 3.5 for the majority of the past two seasons.

Going back to the American Airlines Center provides the Stars with a chance to take their first lead in the series, and I believe they will do just that. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been dominant over the past three games, allowing just two goals in each while posting a .935 SV% and 1.85 GAA. Netminder Logan Thompson was the primary reason for the Knights jumping out to a 2-0 series lead, but he has now surrendered three goals in back-to-back losses. The second of those losses came by a two-goal differential, and I believe a similar result will be in store as the Golden Knights head back on the road.