NHL All-Star Game 2023 Skills Competition Odds and Predictions: Here for Hayes (and Other Underdogs too)

When DraftKings is the main sponsor of the NHL All-Star Skills competition... you know we’re getting markets to bet on.

There will be seven total events in this year's event but I’ll be looking at three of the usuals (hardest shot, fastest skater, and accuracy) as these markets have the least amount of variance — but be fully aware that anything can go in these competitions so don’t bet the farm. 

The weekend may be meaningless for some, but players winning their competition can earn $30,000 per event and although the league is adding two new events, the main three are still there for bettors to dig into. 

Last year, we saw the NHL pre-record the outdoor events but this move was so secretive that sportsbooks still took wagers on the already-completed events... later voiding all of those bets (crushing those bettors who thought they had the best edge ever).

The books will be paying a little more attention this year as the newly-added ‘Splash Shot’ will be recorded on Thursday before being broadcast on Friday. There likely won’t be any markets there, but the key-three events will certainly draw a decent handle and the hardest shot, fastest skater, and accuracy events are the best competitions for bettors to look at.

Hardest shot competition odds and prediction

Odds to win hardest shot competition

Player	Team	Odds
Alex Ovechkin	Metropolitan	+300
Rasmus Dahlin	Atlantic	+350
Seth Jones	Central	+380
Elias Pettersson	Pacific	+400
Josh Morrissey	Central	+400

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 3, 2023.

Hardest shot competition analysis

The hardest shot competition will give players two separate shots with their fastest shot being counted.

That’s it. Two shots each.

No bracket. Just clappers. 

Outside of an Alex Ovechkin win in 2018, this has been a competition dominated by defensemen, but this year it’s wide open. None of the previous three winners will be attending the festivities, making this a wide-open field with Ovie being the betting favorite just because he won in 2018 — but his 101.3 mph shot has been the slowest winning shot since 2007.

Of those five competitors, Seth Jones has competed in the event three separate times, finishing last in 2020 (98.8 mph), last in 2019 (95.5 mph), and third in 2017 (98.1). He's a pass. 

Pettersson is the sneaky play here at +400. He's young and likely cares more than the veterans who could possibly be burning the midnight oil in Florida (looking at you, Ovie). He also recorded a 102.4 mph bomb in the 2020 competition that surprised many. He's now two years older, stronger, and more experienced. Of all the skaters in this, he has the fastest-recorded shot and that is enough for me to bite at 4/1.

Elias Pettersson hardest shot if anyone missed it #Canucks pic.twitter.com/Dr8On8Imtb

— Lucas Parmenter (@LucasParmenter) January 25, 2020

Best bet: Elias Pettersson (+400)

Recent hardest shot competition winners

Year	Winner (mph)	Runner-up (mph)
2022	Victor Hedman (103.2)	Adam Pelech (102.2)
2020	Shea Weber (106.5)	John Carlson (104.5)
2019	John Carlson (102.8)	Brent Burns (100.6)
2018	Alex Ovechkin (101.3)	P.K. Subban (98.7)
2017	Shea Weber (102.8)	Patrik Laine (101.7)

Shot accuracy competition odds and prediction

Odds to win shot accuracy competition

Player	Team	Odds
Connor McDavid	Pacific	+500
Leon Draisaitl	Pacific	+600
Jack Hughes	Metropolitan	+600
Nikita Kucherov	Atlantic	+650
Alex Barkov	Atlantic	+700
Artemi Panarin	Metropolitan	+700
Vladimir Tarasenko	Central	+900
Nazem Kadri	Pacific	+900
Kevin Hayes	Metropolitan	+1100
Brock Nelson	Metropolitan	+1100

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 3, 2023.

Shot accuracy competition analysis

If any of the major competitions were truly random, I think it's the accuracy shooting. Skaters just need to hit four targets and any of these NHL players is capable of going 4-for-4.

Yes, some big names have won the event, but also some fringe All-Stars and some defensemen have claimed victory. This is by far the hardest event to handicap and with the biggest field, makes it even more difficult.

We simply can't just look at active shooting percentages and find an edge, but with McDavid and Draisaitl being the favorites and having the best shooting percentages in the group — at an absurd 19.6% on the season — maybe that's where the books got their numbers.

I'm looking at this more subjectively and love the story of Kevin Hayes... and his price. I can't do the story justice and it's an absolute must-read.

Everyone should be pulling for the long-shot pick who has just as good a chance to win this event as anyone else in the field.

Best bet: Kevin Hayes (+1,100)

Recent shot accuracy competition winners

Year	Winner (time)	Runner-up (time)
2022	Sebastian Aho (10.937)	Jake Guentzel (12.017)
2020	Jaccob Slavin (9.505)	Leon Draisaitl (10.257)
2019	David Pastrnak (11.309)	Kris Letang (12.683)
2018	Brock Boeser (11.136)	Brian Boyle (11.626)
2017	Sidney Crosby (10.73)	Auston Matthews (12.280)

Fastest skater competition odds and prediction

Odds to win fastest skater competition

Player	Team	Odds
Dylan Larkin	Atlantic	+250
Chandler Stephenson	Pacific	+300
Cale Makar	Central	+300
Kirill Kaprizov	Central	+500
Andrei Svechnikov	Metropolitan	+700

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 3, 2023.

Fastest skater competition analysis

This is likely the competition that means more to the individual skaters. Jordan Kyrou won last year and made comments that he didn’t partake in the previous evening’s festivities because he wanted to win the event, which is always a factor when betting on ASG competitions.

Players who got into some extracurriculars last night likely won’t fare well in this competition — it's not something every skater wants to do and that's why we saw McDavid bow out this year.

It makes a lot of sense that Dylan Larkin is the favorite with McDavid watching: He posted a 13.172 in 2016 the fastest recorded time over the last six competitions and the third-fastest speed since the event began in 1990. But then he also finished seventh last year with a time of 14.116. Perhaps Larkin isn't too excited to win this event a second time.

That could make a case for Chandler Stephenson who is participating in his first All-Star game and can fly. He's been clocked at nearly 23 mph during a game, which is just below McDavid's fastest recorded speed in-game by the International Ice Hockey Federation at the 2019 World Ice Hockey Championships.

Dylan Larkin will look to become the seventh player to win the Fastest Skater twice. He would join Connor McDavid (3), Scott Niedermayer (2), Sami Kapanen (2), Peter Bondra (2), Mike Gartner (2) and Sergei Fedorov (2).

More #NHLStats: https://t.co/EnUXERnSmc #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/IRwitKADLZ

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) February 3, 2023

Cale Makar had a time of 13.834 last season and is also in the mix. This looks like a decent spot to fade the favorite, who is at the top (most likely) because of his performance more than half a decade ago.

Best bet: Chandler Stephenson (+300)

Recent fastest skater competition winners

Year	Winner (time)	Runner-up (time)
2022	Jordan Kyrou (13.550)	Adrian Kempe (13.585)
2020	Mathew Barzal (13.175)	Connor McDavid (13.215)
2019	Connor McDavid (13.378)	Jack Eichel (13.582)
2018	Connor McDavid (13.454)	Brayden Point (13.579)
2017	Connor McDavid (13.310)	Nikita Kucherov (13.160)

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