UConn vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Friars Offense Doesn't Have a Prayer

The Connecticut Huskies are looking to finish their best regular season since 2005-06 on Saturday night when they clash with the Providence Friars, who are looking to secure a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament and, ultimately, a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

The Huskies have won three straight since ending their 14-game winning streak and are 17-2 in Big East play and 27-3 overall. The Friars have lost two of their past three games and are 10-9 in conference play with a 19-11 overall record.

Will the Friars pull off the home upset and cover in the college basketball odds this week? Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Connecticut vs. Providence at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, RI on Saturday, March 9.

UConn vs Providence best odds

UConn vs Providence picks and predictions

These two teams first met this season in Storrs, CT on January 31 when the Connecticut Huskies won at home, 74-65. The Providence Friars covered the 13-point spread and the total went Over by three points. UConn shot an abysmal 4-for-23 from downtown in that game and relied on free throws to win. The Huskies shot 26 of 36 from the charity stripe compared to 13 of 26 for the Friars. 

That was an atypical game from the Huskies in the sense that they usually get most of their points from downtown and do not get very many foul shots. UConn ranks 228th in the nation with 18.1% of their points from the free throw line. They also rank 92nd in 3-point attempts (24.0) and 51st in 3-point shooting percentage (36.5%). 

One thing that UConn did do in that game is play their typical great defense. The Huskies rank 14th in the country in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and 13th in points allowed (64.1). They only surrendered 65 points and held Providence to 22.2% shooting from downtown and 41.4% shooting from the floor. 

That is also not atypical for the Providence offense, as it ranks 195th in scoring (73.2 ppg), 123rd in offensive efficiency, and 221st in 3-point shooting percentage (33.3%). It also ranks 233rd in free throw shooting percentage at just 70.8%.

The Friars lost Bryce Hopkins early in conference play, which was a huge hit to their offense. Hopkins averaged 15.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists before going down with a knee injury. Since his injury, the Friars have been held to under 60 points in eight of their 17 games. 

We can grab the Under on the Providence team total here at 64.5 points. They only scored 65 in their last game against UConn despite an inefficient performance from the Huskies. I believe we will see a more typical game from UConn this time around and the game will be very slow. Providence will struggle to even get to 60 points tonight. 

My best bet: Providence team total Under 64.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

UConn vs Providence same-game parlay

Providence team total Under 65.5

Devin Carter Under 7.5 rebounds

Cam Spencer Over 2.5 made 3s

+700 at DraftKings

We will start with our best bet in this game to add a couple of correlated plays and come up with a nice same-game parlay. 

Both Josh Oduro and Devin Carter had nine rebounds in the prior meeting, but we mentioned how inefficient the Huskies were in that game. I expect UConn to shoot much better this time around and the player that will be hurt most by that is Carter, who averages 7.6 defensive rebounds per game. The Huskies rank first in the country allowing only 19.9 defensive boards per game.

Finally, we will add some made 3s since UConn will vastly improve from that 4-for-18 shooting performance last time. Since that game, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot 9.9-for-27.8 from downtown. Cam Spencer shot eight of the 18 threes in the last game but only made one. This time he will get a similar volume but make a much better percentage. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UConn vs Providence spread and Over/Under analysis

The Huskies are 19-11 against the spread this season and 6-4 ATS in road games. The Friars are 17-12-1 ATS overall but only 8-8-1 ATS at home. However, Providence has only been a home underdog three times this season and they won all three games outright, beating Wisconsin, Marquette, and Creighton. 

This will be a little bit of a different beast with the Huskies defense compared to those other three teams. UConn will also slow the game down much more and keep it low-scoring. The spread may be a little high at 9.5 considering I do see a slower pace. I have a slight lean towards Providence to cover, but they should still lose the game outright. 

The Over is 15-14-1 in UConn games this season and only 5-5 in road games. Meanwhile, the Under is 16-11-3 in Providence games and 8-7-2 in home games. With UConn ranking 333rd in pace of play and Providence ranking 167th, I expect a much slower pace and therefore a very low-scoring game.

UConn vs Providence betting trend to know

Providence has hit the team total Under in 19 of their last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Providence.

UConn vs Providence game info

UConn vs Providence key injuries

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