Alabama vs UConn Picks: Tristen Newton Delivers a Little Bit of Everything

Prop bet #1: Tristen's tempo

The UConn Huskies offense is the most adaptable attack in the country, able to fit any type of game and get points wherever opponents are weakest.

For this Final Four clash with the Crimson Tide, UConn is playing a much faster tempo than it normally runs. But if you look at Connecticut’s contests with teams ranked fastest in the country, the Huskies were more than comfortable in that high gear.

Not only have we seen UConn’s scoring spike in those games, but Tristen Newton’s efforts have been at the forefront. He’s put up tallies of 13, 16, and 22 points against Xavier – the fastest-paced team in the Big East – and scored 16 and 17 points versus quicker non-conference combatants in Arkansas Pine Bluff and

New Hampshire, as well as 14 points in 30 minutes versus North Carolina.

Alabama’s pace of play is on a whole other level than those past opponents. The Tide rank No. 9 in tempo at Kenpom and what’s more, they don’t bring the same defensive prowess to the table as those other foes. Bama is bad on defense, giving up 85 points or more in nine of their last 14 games.

Newton is coming off an ice-cold game against Illinois in the Elite Eight, going 0 for 6 from the field while picking up five points at the foul line. He finished well below his scoring total of 16.5 points, which is the same number sportsbooks are dealing for this date with Alabama. That’s a mistake.

He scored 17, 20, and 13 points in the first three games of the tournament facing opponents that ranked much slower in pace of play than the Crimson Tide, and SDSU and Northwestern both sat inside the Top 60 in defensive efficiency.

Saturday’s semifinal showdown is a massive about-face in tempo, with the game total as high as 163.5 earlier this week – the second tallest Over/Under for the Huskies this season. I bet Over on UConn’s Team Total of 85.5 and forecast 90-plus points from the reigning champs.

Player projections for Newton call for as many as 19 points versus a smaller Crimson Tide backcourt, which will get bodied by the 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame of the senior. Newton can score over the top and get inside for high-percentage looks.

The Over 16.5 points prop is priced as high as -134 heading into the Final Four, with the majority of shops sitting at -120 or juicier. However, FanDuel is offering a discount at Over 16.5 -114.

Points prop: Over 16.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Dog on the boards

As mentioned above, at 6-foot-5 Newton has a sizable edge over Alabama’s starting backcourt. That advantage will show on the boards, where Newton averaged 6.7 rebounds per game on the season.

So far in the NCAA Tournament, he’s posted rebounding efforts of five, four, 10, and eight but this game will be played at a much faster pace than those previous outings, with Alabama taking a ton of shots. That means more chances for rebounds.

The Crimson Tide fire up almost 65 shots per game, with a good chunk of those attempts coming from beyond the arc. And given Alabama needs to keep pace with UConn’s deep offensive attack, I see the Tide going HAM from distance on Saturday night.

Long-range shots often equal long rebounds, which bounce off the off rim, past the bigs under the basket, and find their way into the hands of heady guards like Newton. If you look at Alabama’s last two tournament tilts, we’ve seen guards like Cormac Ryan and Chase Hunter – who average around two rebounds – pull down five boards versus the Tide, respectively.

Player projections for Saturday show Newton wrangling more than seven rebounds, which would land just on the other side of his rebounding prop at 6.5 O/U. Some books are as hefty as Over 6.5 -140 at sharp operators but you can find this as short as -115 for the Over.

Rebounds prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Double dip

Combo prop markets are out there at some books, including the rebounds + assists totals. 

Reading the above analysis, you see I’m feeling pretty good about Newton snatching at least seven rebounds in a rapid-fire contest with Alabama. And if you look at his assist market, the Over 5.5 is priced as high as -167 at some shops.

DraftKings’ combo prop, for example, has Newton’s Over 12.5 rebounds + assists at -120 odds, with his solo prop totals of 6.5 boards and 5.5 dimes juiced to -125 and -150, respectively. 

An SGP of those two separate props comes out to +154 but requires Newton to have six or more assists. It pays more than the less risky combo prop, due to the mixing of stats, as UConn’s guard could have eight rebounds and five assists (or any combo of 13+) and go Over the 12.5 total.

However, bet365 milestone props can give you an SGP of seven-plus rebounds and five-plus assists at +160, and Newton only needs five dimes instead of six, unlike the ask from other books. A little less risk for a little better payout. 

Newton averages more than six assists on the year and has handed out five or more helpers in three of Connecticut’s four NCAA Tournament games, including five assists in only 31 minutes against Illinois. In fact, he’s recorded five or more assists in nine of his last 11 games going back to Big East play.

Game script calls for a surplus of shooting/scoring and Newton is fantastic at grabbing the rebound on the defensive end, pushing the ball in transition, and finding the open teammate for the finish. 

SGP prop: 7+ rebounds + 5+ assists (+160 at bet365)