Two teams that were well outside of the March Madness odds picture will now be facing off for an automatic bid on Sunday afternoon in the American Athletic Conference Tournament final when the Temple Owls face off against the UAB Blazers in Fort Worth.
The Owls won four of their final six games in the regular season after a dreadful losing streak before winning four straight tournament games to reach this final. The Blazers won two straight and three of their last five regular season games before winning consecutive tournament games. Which AAC dark horse will clinch their spot in the Big Dance and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are my free college basketball picks for Temple vs. UAB on March 17.
Temple vs UAB best odds
Temple vs UAB picks and predictions
It was quite the controversy the last time these two programs met on March 7. UAB was around a two-point favorite before the line quickly jumped to around seven points and most books had to take the game off the board. The Blazers would go on to win 100-72 at Temple and caused an investigation into the betting aspect of what happened with the Owls in that game.
The Blazers shot a red hot 60.7% from the field and 10-for-18 from downtown. They also completely dominated the Owls on the glass by a tally of 39-17. Temple averages 11.5 offensive rebounds per game (85th), but only got one in that matchup. However, Temple has turned the corner and won five straight games — all as underdogs — since that blowout.
One of the biggest issues for the Owls this season was their inability to make shots despite their huge volume of 61.6 attempts per game (49th) and their knack for allowing so many rebounds — 39.1 per contest (348th). While they haven't improved in those areas in the tournament, they have countered it with much better defense and forcing more misses.
Temple’s opponents are shooting 38.8% from the field in the AAC tournament and the Owls have forced 12.0 turnovers per game while only turning it over 8.0 times. That will be put to the test against a UAB team that is shooting 47.2% from the field and only averaging 6.0 turnovers per game in the tournament. The Blazers have also outrebounded their opponents 76-69 in their two matchups.
The one man that has really dominated the glass for UAB has been Yaxel Lendeborg. He had 14 boards in the opening round game against Wichita State and 11 in the semifinal against South Florida. Nine of those 25 rebounds were on the offensive glass and Temple allows its opponents to pull in 10.7 per game.
Lendeborg went off for 14 rebounds in that March 7 blowout over this Temple team. While I expect this game to be much more evenly matched and likely a bit slower paced, Yaxel will still get his work done on the glass. This should be another double-double type performance from him in the finale.
My best bet: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 10.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)
UAB vs Temple same-game parlay
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 10.5 rebounds
Efrem Johnson Under 1.5 made threes
Hysier Miller Under 2.5 made threes
Tired legs could be an issue with Temple playing its fifth game in five days and UAB playing its third in three. The Owls only shoot 31.5% (310th) from downtown and the Blazers shoot 32.2% (281st). UAB has only made 13 threes in the tournament thus far and Temple has made 32 — in five games.
The two players I like to look at here for Unders in made threes are Efrem Johnson and Hysier Miller.
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Temple vs UAB spread and Over/Under analysis
The Owls went 13-15-2 against the spread in the regular season and a dreadful 0-5 ATS on neutral courts. However, they've covered all four of their conference tournament games in Fort Worth so far winning them all as underdogs. The Blazers went 17-12-1 ATS in the regular season and 1-1 at neutral sites. They covered both tournament games with one being a favorite and the other as an underdog.
The Over was 15-14-1 in Temple regular season games, but the Under was 0-4-1 in neutral site games and three of its four AAC tournament games went Under. The Over was 17-13 in UAB regular season games and 1-1 in neutral site games with another split in their two conference tournament games. The tired legs and fatigue will set in, and I like this game to stay Under the total despite their high scoring game last time out.
Temple vs UAB betting trend to know
Temple has hit the moneyline in eight of their last 10 games (+20.15 Units / 148% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Temple vs, UAB.
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Temple vs UAB game info
| Location: | Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Temple vs UAB key injuries
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