The No 17 ranked San Diego State Aztecs take on the No. 14 Arizona Wildcats in the Maui Invitational semifinals on Tuesday night. This will be an intriguing matchup between an elite offensive team in Arizona, and a stingy defensive squad in SDSU.
Oddsmakers expect a close, high-scoring game with college basketball odds hitting the board with the Wildcats as 1.5-point favorites and the Over/Under at 164.5. Here are my free San Diego State vs. Arizona college basketball picks and predictions on November 22.
San Diego State vs Arizona best odds
San Diego State vs Arizona picks and predictions
The Wildcats have been an unstoppable offensive juggernaut this season, but they've also benefitted from beating up on some vastly inferior foes with their strength of schedule currently ranked 284th in the country according to KenPom.
San Diego State is easily the best team they've faced this season and the Aztecs program typically plays lockdown defense.
Last season, SDSU ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking outside the Top 250 in adjusted tempo. It returned four starters from last year's squad including Mountain West Player of the Year, Nathan Mensah.
It also added point guard Darrion Trammell through the transfer portal and he's a tenacious defender who loves to pressure opposing ball handlers.
On paper, the Aztecs should be just as good defensively as last season, but their numbers have gotten worse. That has coincided with a faster tempo and improved play from their offense but I expect them to get back to basics, slow things down, and focus on defending in this one.
Will they be able to shut down Arizona's high-powered attack? Maybe not, but the Wildcats' absurd 62.9 FG% is unsustainable long term and the Aztecs have the defensive chops to keep them below their team total of 83.5.
My best bet: Arizona team total Under 83.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Looking to do some college basketball betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
San Diego State vs Arizona spread analysis
I mentioned Arizona's weak schedule to start the season and the Aztecs facing tougher opposition, going 4-0 straight up (2-2 ATS) with an SOS that currently ranks 54th in the nation.
They jumped out to an early lead against the Buckeyes last night and held on for a 88-77 win. Despite a high-scoring second half in that contest, SDSU limited the Buckeyes to 42% shooting and seven offensive rebounds.
The Aztecs were terrific on offense in that contest and ended up knocking down 51% of their shots (including 48% from long range) while turning the ball over just seven times. Last year's leading scorer (and First-Team All-Mountain West selection) Matt Bradley dropped 18 points in just 18 minutes due to foul trouble.
It says a lot about San Diego State's improved offense that Bradley had to carry the team last season but is just fourth on the team in scoring so far this year. Trammell was named First-Team All-WAC last year and is averaging 12.8 points and 3.8 assists per game while another transfer, Jaedon LeDee, leads the team with 13.5 ppg.
Arizona is also 4-0 SU (albeit just 1-3 ATS) thanks to an offense that has been lighting up foes with an NCAA-best 104 ppg. The Wildcats lost three starters from last year's Sweet 16 squad including Pac-12 Player of the Year Bennedict Mathurin.
That said, four other key rotation players returned to the school and have been joined by transfers Courtney Ramey and Cedric Henderson Jr. All six of those players are averaging double digits in scoring — led by twin towers Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo — who have combined for 40.5 ppg on an absurd 73.5% from the field.
With so much firepower, it's no surprise that they're second in the country in offensive efficiency with 124.8 points per 100 possessions, but they rank just 146th in defensive efficiency (allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions) despite facing subpar foes.
San Diego State vs Arizona Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams have been cashing for Over bettors this season, going a combined 7-1 O/U. That said, the total of 164.5 for tonight is not only the highest O/U for the Wildcats this season, but is easily the highest total for the Aztecs in years with SDSU not seeing a total above 150 since 2019.
Arizona beat Cincinnati 101-93 last night, and while that offensive prowess needs to be respected, allowing the Bearcats to knock down 17 three-pointers at a 50% clip is concerning.
The Wildcats play at the fastest tempo in the country but that combined with their lackadaisical effort on D can lead to some poor performances on that end of the floor.
The Aztecs have made massive strides on offense compared to last season. They are averaging 110.3 points per 100 possessions this season and are 129th in adjusted tempo — which is a far faster pace than they have played at in recent years.
San Diego State vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in the Aztecs' last eight games vs. a team with a winning straight up record while going 7-1-1 in Arizona's previous nine contests against teams with a winning record. Find more College basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs. Arizona.
San Diego State vs Arizona game info
| Location: | Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, HI |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 22, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
